Predictability of extreme events in social media

PLoS ONE

Volumn 9, Issue 11, 2014, Pages

  Miotto, José M ^a   Altmann, Eduardo G ^a  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUT FÜR PHYSIK KOMPLEXER SYSTEME   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

HUMAN; PREDICTION; SOCIAL MEDIA; STOCHASTIC MODEL; VIDEORECORDING; ATTENTION; INTERNET; PUBLICATION;

ATTENTION; HUMANS; INTERNET; PERIODICALS AS TOPIC; SOCIAL MEDIA; VIDEO RECORDING;

EID: 84929478539     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111506     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Simon HA (1971) Designing organizations for an information rich world. In: Greenberger M, editor, Computers, communications and the public interest, John Hopkins Press. pp. 37-72.
2. Wu F, Huberman BA (2007) Novelty and collective attention. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 17599-17601.
3. Wu F, Wilkinson DM, Huberman BA (2009) Feedback loops of attention in peer production. In: International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, 2009. CSE'09. IEEE, volume 4, pp. 409-415.
4. Pareto V (1896) La courbe de la répartition de la richesse. Ch. Viret-Genton.
5. Bak P, Paczuski M (1995) Complexity, contingency, and criticality. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 92: 6689-96.
6. Price DJdS (1976) A general theory of bibliometric and other cumulative advantage processes. J Ame So Inf Sci Technol 27: 292-306.
7. Salganik MJ, Dodds PS, Watts DJ (2006) Experimental study of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial cultural market. Science 854.
8. Stringer MJ, Sales-Pardo M, Amaral LAN (2010) Statistical validation of a global model for the distribution of the ultimate number of citations accrued by papers published in a scientific journal. J Ame So Inf Sci Technol 61: 1377- 1385.
9. Weng L, Flammini A, Vespignani A, Menczer F (2012) Competition among memes in a world with limited attention. Sci Rep 2.
10. Onnela JP, Reed-Tsochas F (2010) Spontaneous emergence of social influence in online systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107: 18375-18380.
11. Ratkiewicz J, Fortunato S, Flammini A, Menczer F, Vespignani A (2010) Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity. Phys Rev Lett 105: 158701-158705.
12. Perc M (2014) The matthew effect in empirical data. J R Soc Interface 11: 20140378.
13. Peterson J, Dixit PD, Dill KA (2013) A maximum entropy framework for nonexponential distributions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110: 20380-20385.
14. Marsili M, Mastromatteo I, Roudi Y (2013) On sampling and modeling complex systems. J Stat Mech 2013: P09003.
15. Wang D, Song C, Barabási AL (2013) Quantifying long-term scientific impact. Science 342: 127-132.
16. Bandari R, Asur S, Huberman BA (2012) The pulse of news in social media: Forecasting popularity. In: Proceedings of the Sixth ICWSM.
17. Sornette D, Deschâ tres F, Gilbert T, Ageon Y (2004) Endogenous versus exogenous shocks in complex networks: An empirical test using book sale rankings. Phys Rev Lett 93: 228701.
18. Crane R, Sornette D (2008) Robust dynamic classes revealed by measuring the response function of a social system. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 15649-53.
19. Penner O, Pan RK, Petersen AM, Kaski K, Fortunato S (2013) On the predictability of future impact in science. Sci Rep 3: 3052.
20. Kantz H, Altmann EG, Hallerberg S, Holstein D, Riegert A (2006) Dynamical interpretation of extreme events: predictability and predictions. In: Albeverio S, Jentsch V, Kantz H, editors, Extreme Events in Nature and Society, Springer Verlag.
21. Albeverio S, Jentsch V, Kantz H (2006) Extreme events in nature and society. Springer Verlag.
22. Hallerberg S, Altmann EG, Holstein D, Kantz H (2007) Precursors of extreme increments. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 75: 016706.
23. Hallerberg S, Kantz H (2008) Influence of the event magnitude on the predictability of an extreme event. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 77: 011108.
24. Sornette D (2002) Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99: 2522-9.
25. Ghil M, Yiou P, Hallegatte S, Naveau P, Soloviev A, et al. (2011) Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction. Nonlinear Process Geophys 18: 295- 350.
26. Bogachev MI, Bunde A (2011) On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness. Physica A 390: 2240-2250.
27. Miotto JM, Altmann EG (2014) Time series of social media activity: Youtube, usenet, stack-overflow. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1160515.
28. Fenner M, Lin J (2013) Cumulative usage statistics for plos papers from plos website. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.816962.
29. Coles S (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer.
30. Sukhatme S, Beam CA (1994) Stratification in nonparametric roc studies. Biometrics: 149-163.
31. Bröcker J (2009) Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135: 1512-1519.
32. Hanley JA, McNeil B (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve. Radiology 143: 29-36.
33. Provost FJ, Fawcett T, Kohavi R (1998) The case against accuracy estimation for comparing induction algorithms. In: ICML. volume 98, pp. 445-453.
34. Hand DJ, Till R (2001) A simple generalisation of the area under the roc curve for multiple class classification problems. Mach Learn 45: 171-186.
35. Preis T, Moat HS, Stanley HE (2013) Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using google trends. Sci Rep 3.
36. Castellano C, Fortunato S, Loreto V (2009) Statistical physics of social dynamics. Rev Mod Phys 81: 591-646.
37. Granger CWJ (1980) Testing for causality: A personal viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and control 2: 329-352.
38. Altmann EG, Pierrehumbert JB, Motter A (2011) Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups. PLoS ONE 6.
39. Yasseri T, Hale SA, Magretts H (2013) Modeling the rise in internet-based petitions. To be published.