Elicitator: A user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert Knowledge and its Application in Landscape Ecology

Volumn , Issue , 2014, Pages 39-67

  Low Choy, Samantha ^a,b   James, Allan ^b   Murray, Justine ^c,d   Mengersen, Kerrie ^b  

^a Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity ^*  (Australia)

^b QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^d CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84929274869     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-1034-8_3     Document Type: Chapter

References (41)

1. Albert I, Donnet S, Guihenneuc C et al (2010) Combining expert opinions in expert elicitation. Available from http://eprints. qut. edu. au/40812 (accessed April 2011)
2. Austin M (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol Modell 157:101-118
3. Baguley T (2004) Understanding statistical power in the context of applied research. Appl Ergon 35:73-80
4. Bedrick EJ, Christensen R, Johnson W (1996) A new perspective on priors for generalized linear models. J Am Stat Assoc 91(436):1450-1460
5. Boyce MS, Irwin LL, Barker R (2005) Demographic meta-analysis: synthesizing vital rates for spotted owls. J Appl Ecol 42:38-49
6. Cooke RM, Goosens LLJH (2008) TU Delft expert judgment data base. Reliab Engin Syst Safe 93:657-674
7. Denham R, Mengersen K (2007) Geographically assisted elicitation of expert opinion for regression models. Bayesian Anal 2(1):99-136
8. Donald M, Mengersen K, Toze S et al (2011) Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). J Water Health 9(1):10-26
9. Elith J, Graham C, Anderson R et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-151
10. Fitzpatrick MC, Hargrove WW (2009) The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate. Biodivers Conserv 18:2255-2261
11. Fleishman E, MacNally R, Fay JP, Murphy DD (2001) Modelling and predicting species occurrences using broad-scale environmental variables: an example with butterfl ies of the great basin. Conserv Biol 15:1674-1685
12. Ihaka R, Gentleman R (1996) R: A Language for Data Analysis and Graphics, J Comput Graph Statist 5:299-314
13. James A, Low-Choy S, Murray J, Mengersen K (2010) Elicitator: An expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology. Environ Modell Softw 25(1):129-145
14. Jarrad F, Barrett S, Murray J et al (2011 Improved design method for biosecurity surveillance and early detection of non-indigenous rats. New Zeal J Ecol 35(2), Available from http://www. nzes. org. nz/nzje/new-issues/NZJEcol-JarradIP. pdf (accessed April 2011)
15. Johnson S, Fielding F, Hamilton G, Mengersen K (2010) An Integrated Bayesian Network approach to Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation. Marine Environ Res 69:27-37
16. Kadane JB, Dickey JM, Winkler RL et al (1980) Interactive elicitation of opinion for a normal linear model. J Am Stat Assoc 75:845-854
17. Keeney RL, von Winterfeldt D (1991) Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 38(3):191-201
18. Kuhnert P, Martin TG, Griffi ths SP (2010) A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. Ecol Lett 13:900-914
19. Kynn M (2005) Eliciting expert opinion for a Bayesian logistic regression model in natural resources. PhD thesis, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane. Available from http://eprints. qut. edu. au/16041/(accessed April 2011)
20. Kynn M (2008) The "heuristics and biases" bias in expert elicitation. J Roy Stat Soc A Sta 171(1):239-264
21. Low-Choy S, James A, Mengersen K (2009a) Expert elicitation and its interface with technology: a review with a view to designing Elicitator. In: Anderssen RS, Braddock RD, Newnham LTH (eds) 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, pp 4269-4275. Available from http://www. mssanz. org. au/modsim09/J2/lowchoy. pdf (accessed April 2011)
22. Low-Choy S, O'Leary R, Mengersen K (2009b) Elicitation by design for ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models. Ecology 90:265-277
23. Low-Choy S, Wilson T (2009) How do experts think about statistics Hints for improving undergraduate and postgraduate training. In: Murphy P (ed) Next Steps in Statistics Education, Durban, South Africa 2009. International Association for Statistics Education, Auckland. Available from http://www. stat. auckland. ac. nz/~iase/publications/sat09/4-3. pdf (accessed April 2011)
24. Low-Choy S, Murray J, James A, Mengersen K (2010) Indirect elicitation from ecological experts: from methods and software to habitat modelling and rock-wallabies. In: O'Hagan A, West M (eds) Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford
25. Martin TG, Kuhnert PM, Mengersen K, Possingham HP (2005) The power of expert opinion in ecological models: A Bayesian approach examining the impact of livestock grazing on birds. Ecol Appl 15(1):266-280
26. McCarthy MA (2007) Bayesian Methods for Ecology, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
27. Murray JV (2009) Spatial modeling for the conservation of threatened species: distributions, habitats and landscape connectivity of the brush-tailed rock wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). PhD thesis, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Available from: http://espace. library. uq. edu. au/view/UQ:188140 (accessed April 2011)
28. Murray JV, Goldizen AW, O'Leary RA et al (2009) How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise A case study using brushtailed rock-wallabies Petrogale penicillata. J Appl Ecol 46:842-851
29. Murray JV, Low-Choy S, McAlpine CA et al (2011) Evaluating model transferability for a threatened species to adjacent areas: implications for rock-wallaby conservation. Austral Ecol 36(1):76-89
30. Murray J, Low-Choy S, Possingham H, Goldizen A (2008) The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). Biol Conserv 141:7-22
31. Oakley JE, O'Hagan, A (2010) SHELF: the Sheffi eld Elicitation Framework (version 2. 0). School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffi eld, Sheffi eld. Available from http://tonyohagan. co. uk/shelf (accessed April 2011)
32. O'Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A et al (2006) Uncertain judgements: eliciting experts' probabilities. John Wiley & Sons Inc, Chichester
33. O'Leary R, Low-Choy S, Murray J et al (2009) Comparison of three elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata. Environmetrics 20:379-398
34. O'Leary RA, Murray JV, Low-Choy S, Mengersen K (2008) Expert elicitation for Bayesian classifi cation trees. J Appl Prob Stat 3:95-106
35. Pike WA (2004) Modeling drinking water quality violations with Bayesian networks. J Am Water Resour Assoc 40:1563-1578
36. Sheppard CRC (1999) How large should my sample be Some quick guides to sample size and the power of tests. Mar Pollut Bull 38(6):439-447
37. Smith CS, Howes AL, Price B, McAlpine CA (2007) Using a Bayesian belief network to predict suitable habitat of an endangered mammal-the Julia Creek dunnart (Sminthopsis douglasi). Biol Conserv 8:333-347
38. Spiegelhalter DJ, Thomas A, Best NG, Lunn D (2003) WinBUGS version 1. 4 user manual. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge. Technical report
39. Store R, Kangas J (2001) Integrating spatial multi-criteria evaluation and expert knowledge for GIS-based habitat suitability modelling. Landsc Urban Plan 55:79-93
40. Uusitalo L (2007) Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecol Modell 203:312-318
41. Vikneswaran (2005) An R companion to "experimental design". Available from http://cran. r-project. org/doc/contrib/Vikneswaran-ED-companion. pdf (accessed April 2011)