The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 10, Issue 4, 2015, Pages

  Urban, Daniel W ^a   Sheffield, Justin ^b   Lobell, David B ^a  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Princeton University   (United States)

Author keywords

drought; emission scenarios; heat stress; water demand; water use efficiency; yield variability

Indexed keywords

CARBON; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE MODELS; DROUGHT; MOISTURE; PLANTS (BOTANY); SOIL MOISTURE;

EMISSION SCENARIO; HEAT STRESS; WATER DEMAND; WATER USE EFFICIENCY; YIELD VARIABILITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AGRICULTURAL MODELING; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP YIELD; DATA SET; DEMAND ANALYSIS; DROUGHT STRESS; EMISSION CONTROL; MAIZE; SOIL MOISTURE; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TRANSPIRATION; WATER DEMAND; WATER USE EFFICIENCY;

UNITED STATES;

ZEA MAYS;

EID: 84928810965     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Andresen J A, Alagarswamy G, Rotz C A, Ritchie J T and LeBaron A W 2001 Weather impacts on maize, soybean, and alfalfa production in the great lakes region, 1895-1996 Agron. J. 93 1059
2. Basso B and Ritchie J 2014 Temperature and drought effects on maize yield. Nat. Clim. Change 4 233-233
3. Basso B and Ritchie J T 2012 Assessing the impact of management strategies on water use efficiency using soil-plant-atmosphere models Vadose Zone J. 11 0
4. Çakir R 2004 Effect of water stress at different development stages on vegetative and reproductive growth of corn Field Crops Res. 89 1-16
5. Ghannoum O, Caemmerer S V, Ziska L H and Conroy J P 2000 The growth response of C4 plants to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressure: a reassessment Plant Cell Environ. 23 931-42
6. Harrison M T, Tardieu F, Dong Z, Messina C D and Hammer G L 2014 Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions Glob. Change Biol. 20 867-78
7. Holzworth D P et al 2014 APSIM - evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation Environ. Model. Softw. 62 327-50
8. Leakey A D B, Ainsworth E A, Bernacchi C J, Rogers A, Long S P and Ort D R 2009 Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE J. Exp. Bot. 60 2859 -2876
9. Leakey A D B, Uribelarrea M, Ainsworth E A, Naidu S L, Rogers A, Ort D R and Long S P 2006 Photosynthesis, productivity, and yield of maize are not affected by open-air elevation of CO2 concentration in the absence of drought Plant Physiol. 140 779-90
10. Lobell D B, Hammer G L, McLean G, Messina C, Roberts M J and Schlenker W 2013 The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States Nat. Clim. Change 3 497-501
11. Lobell D B, Roberts M J, Schlenker W, Braun N, Little B B, Rejesus R M and Hammer G L 2014 Greater sensitivity to drought accompanies maize yield increase in the US midwest Science 344 516-9
12. Mueller B and Seneviratne S I 2012 Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 109 12398-403
13. Ortiz-Bobea A 2013 Understanding temperature and moisture interactions in the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation on agriculture 2013 AAEA CAES Joint Annual Meeting
14. Roberts M J, Schlenker W and Eyer J 2013 Agronomic weather measures in econometric models of crop yield with implications for climate change Am. J. Agric. Econ. 95 236-43
15. Samarakoon A and Gifford R 1996 Elevated CO2 effects on water use and growth of maize in wet and drying soil Funct. Plant Biol. 23 53-62
16. Schlenker W 2006 Inter-annual weather variation and crop yields Working Paper Dept. Econ. Sch. Int. Public Aff. Columbia Univ NY
17. Schlenker W and Roberts M J 2009 Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106 15594 -15598
18. Thompson L M 1969 Weather and technology in the production of corn in the US corn belt. Agron. J. 61 453
19. Urban D, Roberts M, Schlenker W and Lobell D 2012 Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of US maize yields Clim. Change 112 525-33
20. Wood S 2006a Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R (Boca Raton: CRC Press)
21. Wood S N 2006b Low-rank scale-invariant tensor product smooths for generalized additive mixed models Biometrics 62 1025-36
22. Xia Y et al 2012 Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 1. Intercomparison and application of model products J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117 D03109
23. Xia Y, Sheffield J, Ek M B, Dong J, Chaney N, Wei H, Meng J and Wood E F 2014 Evaluation of multi-model simulated soil moisture in NLDAS-2 J. Hydrol. 512 107-25