Cost-Effective Control of Plant Disease When Epidemiological Knowledge Is Incomplete: Modelling Bahia Bark Scaling of Citrus

PLoS Computational Biology

Volumn 10, Issue 8, 2014, Pages

  Cunniffe, Nik J ^a   Laranjeira, Francisco F ^b   Neri, Franco M ^a   DeSimone, R Erik ^a   Gilligan, Christopher A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^b Embrapa Cassava and Fruits   (Brazil)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CHEMICAL DETECTION; COST EFFECTIVENESS; DISEASE CONTROL; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; FORESTRY; MARKOV PROCESSES; STOCHASTIC CONTROL SYSTEMS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS;

CITRUS PRODUCTION; CONTROL STRATEGIES; COST EFFECTIVE; DISEASE SPREAD; INCOMPLETE MODEL; MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO; PLANT DISEASE; SCALINGS; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT; STOCHASTIC-MODELING;

STOCHASTIC MODELS;

ARTICLE; BAHIA BARK SCALING OF CITRUS; CALCULATION; CITRUS; CONTROLLED STUDY; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE COURSE; HOST; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; PLANT DISEASE; PLANTING DENSITY; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BIOLOGY; ECONOMICS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PREVENTION AND CONTROL; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

CITRUS; COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY; MARKOV CHAINS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PLANT DISEASES;

EID: 84928703902     PISSN: 1553734X     EISSN: 15537358     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003753     Document Type: Article

References (83)

1. Fishman S, Marcus R, Talpaz H, Bar-Joseph M, Oren Y, et al. (1983) Epidemiological and economic models for the spread and control of citrus tristeza virus disease. Phytoparasitica 11: 39–49.
2. Chan M, Jeger M, (1994) An analytical model of plant virus disease dynamics with roguing and replanting. Journal of Applied Ecology 31: 413–427.
3. Jeger M, Holt J, van den Bosch F, Madden L, (2004) Epidemiology of insecttransmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions. Physiological Entomology 29: 291–304.
4. Gilligan C, (2002) An epidemiological framework for disease management. Advances in Botanical Research 38: 1–64.
5. Gilligan C, van den Bosch F, (2008) Epidemiological models for invasion and persistence of pathogens. Annual Reviews of Phytopathology 46: 385–418.
6. Cook A, Gibson G, Gottwald T, Gilligan C, (2008) Constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies on historic epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5: 1203–1213.
7. Parnell S, Gottwald T, van den Bosch F, Gilligan C, (2009) Optimal strategies for the eradication of asiatic citrus canker in heterogeneous host landscapes. Phytopathology 99: 1370–1376.
8. Parnell S, Gottwald T, van den Bosch F, Cunniffe N, Gilligan C, (2010) The effect of landscape pattern on the optimal eradication zone of an invading epidemic. Phytopathology 100: 638–644.
9. Cunniffe N, Gilligan C, (2010) Invasion, persistence and control in epidemic models for plant pathogens: the effect of host demography. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 7: 439–451.
10. Sisterson M, Stenger D, (2013) Roguing with replacement in perennial crops: modeling conditions for successful disease management. Phytopathology 103: 117–128.
11. Laranjeira F, Bergamin-Filho A, Amorim L, Lopes J, (2003) Comportamento sazonal da clorose variegada dos citros em três regiões do Estado de São Paulo. Fitopatologia Brasileira 28: 633–641.
12. Cardoso J, Santos A, Rossetti A, Vidal J, (2004) Relationship between incidence and severity of cashew gummosis in semiarid north-eastern Brazil. Plant Pathology 53: 363–367.
13. Sgrillo R, Moura J, Sgrillo K, (2005) Simulation model for phytomonas epidemics in coconut trees. Neotropical Entomology 34: 527–538.
14. Fischer I, Rezende J, (2008) Diseases of passion flower (Passiflora spp.). Pest Technology 2: 1–19.
15. Antonioli-Luizon R, Barbosa C, Kitajima E, Freitas-Astúa J, (2009) Diagnóstico da pinta verde: definhamento precoce do maracujazeiro. Comunicado Técnico 132: 1–5.
16. Laranjeira F, Amorim L, Bergamin-Filho A, Berger R, Hau B, (1998) Análise especial do amarelecimento fatal do dendezeiro como ferramenta para elucidar sua etiologia. Fitopatologia Brasileira 23: 397–403.
17. Al Rwahnih M, Rowhani A, Smith R, Uyemoto J, Sudarshana M, (2012) Grapevine necrotic union, a newly recognized disease of unknown etiology in grapevines grafted on 110 richter rootstock in California. Journal of Plant Pathology 94: 149–156.
18. Santos-Filho H, Sanches N, Oliveira A, Noronha A, Andrade P, et al. (2011) Identificação e monitoramento de pragas regulamentadas e seus inimigos naturais na cultura do mamoeiro. Embrapa; Cruz das Almas Documentos 179: 1–25.
19. Martins D, Ventura J, Lima R, Culik M, Costa H, et al. (2012) Interaction between papaya meleira virus (PMeV) infection of papaya plants and mediterranean fruit fly infestation of fruits. Crop Protection 36: 7–10.
20. Laranjeira F, Barbosa C, Santos Filho H, Gonçalves T, Nickel O, (2006) Progress, spread and natural transmission of Bahia bark scaling of citrus in Brazil. Annals of Applied Biology 148: 187–195.
21. Nickel O, Barbosa C, Santos Filho H, Passos O, Laranjeira F, (2007) Bahia bark scaling of citrus: a disease of unknown etiology. Pest Technology 1: 70–75.
22. Gibson G, Renshaw E, (1998) Estimating parameters in stochastic compartmental models using Markov chain methods. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 15: 19–40.
23. Hall R, Gubbins S, Gilligan C, (2007) Evaluating the performance of chemical control in the presence of resistant pathogens. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 69: 525–537.
24. Cunniffe N, Gilligan C, (2011) A theoretical framework for biological control of soil-borne plant pathogens: identifying effective strategies. Journal of Theoretical Biology 278: 32–43.
25. Howard R, (1996) Cultural control of plant diseases: a historical perspective. Canadian Journal of Plant Pathology 18: 145–150.
26. Burdon J, Chilvers G, (1982) Host density as a factor in plant disease ecology. Annual Review of Phytopathology 20: 143–166.
27. Huang H, Hoes J, (1980) Importance of plant spacing and sclerotial position to development of sclerotinia wilt of sunflower. Plant Disease 64: 81–84.
28. Chin K, Wolfe M, (1984) The spread of Erysiphe graminis f.sp. hordei in mixtures of barley varieties. Plant Pathology 33: 89–100.
29. Vandermeer J (1992) The ecology of intercroppping. Cambridge University Press.
30. Mundt C, (2002) Use of multiline cultivars and cultivar mixtures for disease management. Annual Review of Phytopathology 40: 381–410.
31. Garrett K, Mundt C, (1999) Epidemiology in mixed host populations. Phytopathology 89: 984–990.
32. Boudreau MA, (2013) Diseases in intercropping systems. Annual Review of Phytopathology 51: 499–519.
33. Trenbath B, (1993) Intercropping for the management of pests and diseases. Field Crops Research 34: 381–405.
34. Bailey D, Otten W, Gilligan C, (2000) Saprotrophic invasion by the soil-borne fungal plant pathogen Rhizoctonia solani and percolation thresholds. New Phytologist 146: 535–544.
35. Otten W, Bailey D, Gilligan C, (2004) Empirical evidence of spatial thresholds to control invasion of fungal parasites and saprotrophs. New Phytologist 163: 125–132.
36. Neri F, Bates A, Fuchtbauer W, Perez-Reche F, Taraskin S, et al. (2011) The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system. PLoS Computational Biology 7: e1002174.
37. Leclerc M, Doré T, Gilligan C, Lucas P, Filipe J, (2011) Host growth can cause invasive spread of crops by soilborne pathogens. PLoS ONE 8: e63003.
38. Poggi S, Neri F, Deytieux V, Bates A, Otten W, et al. (2013) Percolation-based risk index for pathogen invasion: application to soil-borne disease in propagation systems. Phytopathology 103: 1012–1019.
39. Thrall P, Bever J, Mihail D, Alexander H, (1997) The population dynamics of annual plants and soil-borne fungal pathogens. Journal of Ecology 85: 313–328.
40. Brown D, Bolker B, (2004) The effects of disease dispersal and host clustering on the epidemic threshold in plants. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 66: 341–371.
41. DeWoody Y, Feng Z, Swihart R, (2005) Merging spatial and temporal structure within a metapopulation model. The American Naturalist 166: 42–55.
42. Skelsey P, Rossing W, Kessel G, van der Werf W, (2010) Invasion of Phytophthora infestans at the landscape level: how do spatial scale and weather modulate the consequences of spatial heterogeneity in host resistance? Phytopathology 100: 1146–1161.
43. Dasgupta M (1999) Principles of plant pathology. Allied Publishers.
44. Gibson R, Aritua V, Byamukama E, Mpembe I, Kayongo J, (2004) Control strategies for sweet potato virus disease in Africa. Virus Research 100: 115–122.
45. Fauquet C, Fargette D, (1990) African cassava mosaic virus: etiology, epidemiology, and control. Plant Disease 74: 404–411.
46. Allen R, (1978) Epidemiological factors influencing the success of roguing for the control of bunchy top disease of bananas in New South Wales. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 29: 535–544.
47. Dzahini-Obiatey G, Ameyaw A, Ollennu L, (2006) Control of cocoa swollen shoot disease by eradicating infected trees in Ghana: a survey of treated and replanted areas. Crop Protection 25: 647–652.
48. Thresh J, Owusu G, (1986) The control of cocoa swollen shoot disease in Ghana: an evaluation of eradication procedures. Crop protection 5: 41–52.
49. Barnier J, Grafton-Cardwell B, Polek M, (2010) Citrus tristeza virus (CTV): then and now. Citrograph 29: 16–23.
50. Dallot S, Gottwald T, Labonne G, Quiot J, (2004) Factors affecting the spread of plum pox virus strain M in peach orchards subjected to roguing in France. Phytopathology 94: 1390–1398.
51. Gibson R, Aritua V, (2002) The perspective of sweet potato chlorotic stunt virus in sweet potato production in Africa, a review. African Crop Science Journal 10: 281–310.
52. Sisterson M, Chen J, Viveros M, Civerolo E, Ledbetter C, et al. (2008) Effects of almond leaf scorch disease on almond yield: implications for management. Plant Disease 92: 409–414.
53. Patterson C, Grogan R, (1985) Differences in epidemiology and control of lettuce drop caused by Sclerotinia minor and S. sclerotiorum. Plant Disease 69: 766–770.
54. Fishman S, Marcus R, (1984) A model for spread of plant disease with periodic removals. Journal of Mathematical Biology 21: 149–158.
55. van den Bosch F, de Roos A, (1996) The dynamics of infectious disease in orchards with roguing and replanting as control strategy. Journal of Mathematical Biology 35: 129–157.
56. Dybiec B, Kleczkowski A, Gilligan C, (2004) Controlling disease spread on networks with incomplete knowledge. Physical Reviews E 70: 066145.
57. Dybiec B, Kleczkowski A, Gilligan C, (2005) Optimizing control of disease spread on networks. Acta Physica Polonica B 36: 1509–1526.
58. Dybiec B, Kleczkowski A, Gilligan C, (2009) Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions. Journal of the Royal Society: Interface 6: 941–950.
59. Ndeffo-Mbah M, Gilligan C, (2010) Balancing detection and eradication for control of epidemics: sudden oak death in mixed-species stands. PLoS ONE 5: e12317.
60. Roistacher C (2004) Diagnosis and management of virus and virus like diseases of citrus. In: Naqvi S, editor, Diseases of fruits and vegetables: diagnosis and management, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic. pp. 109–189.
61. Barbosa C, Valverde P, Almeida R, Santos Filho H, Nickel O, et al. (1999) Incidence and severity of Bahia type citrus psorosis in a commercial orchard of sweet orange. Revista Brasileira de Fruticultura 21: 382–384.
62. Santos E, Rodrigues A, Santos A, Barbosa C, Passos O, (2009) Monitoramento de doenças nas plantas básicas de citros e do comportamento de clones de lima ácida Tahiti à infecção por citrus tristeza virus, CTV. Jornada Científica da Embrapa Mandioca e Fruticultura Tropical III: 1–5.
63. DeNegri J, Stuchi E, Blasco E (2005) Planejamento e implantação do pomar cítrico. In: Mattos Junior D, DeNegri J, Pio R, Pompeu Junior J, editors, Citros Campinas, Sao Paolo: SP. Instituto Agronomico e Fundag. pp. 409–427.
64. Pagliuca L, Cappello F, Viana M, Lorenzi C, Boteon M, et al. (2012) Sustentabilidade da citricultura desafiada pelos altos custos de produção. Hortifruti Brasil 5: 10–24.
65. Zadoks J, van den Bosch F, (1994) On the spread of plant disease: a theory on foci. Annual Review of Phytopathology 32: 503–521.
66. Demon I, Cunniffe N, Marchant B, Gilligan C, van den Bosch F, (2011) Spatial sampling to detect an invasive pathogen outside of an eradication zone. Phytopathology 101: 725–731.
67. Neri F, Cook A, Gibson G, Gottwald T, Gilligan C, (2014) Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: Citrus canker in urban landscapes. PLoS Computational Biology 10: e1003587.
68. Cousens R, Dytham C, Law R (2008) Dispersal in Plants: A Population Perspective. Oxford University Press.
69. O'Neill P, Roberts G, (1999) Bayesian inference for partially observed stochastic epidemics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 162: 121–129.
70. Gillespie D, (1977) Exact stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions. Journal of Physical Chemistry 81: 2340–2361.
71. Belasque Junior J, Bergamin Filho A, Bassanezi R, Barbosa J, Gimenes F, et al. (2009) Base científica para a erradicação de plantas sintomáticas e assintomáticas de huanglongbing (HLB, greening) visando o controle efetivo da doença. Tropical Plant Pathology 34: 137–145.
72. Blumer S, Pompeu-Junior J, (2005) Avaliação de citrandarins e outros hbridos de trifoliata como porta-enxertos para citros em São Paulo. Revista Brasileira de Fruticultura 27: 264–267.
73. Gelman A, Carlin J, Stern H, Rubin D (2003) Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall.
74. Bassanezi R, Laranjeira F, (2007) Spatial patterns of leprosis and its mite vector in commercial citrus groves in Brazil. Plant Pathology 56: 97–106.
75. Oro F, Bonnot F, Ngo-Bieng M, Delaitre E, Dufour B, et al. (2012) Spatiotemporal pattern analysis of cacao swollen shoot virus in experimental plots in Togo. Plant Pathology 61: 1043–1051.
76. Laranjeira F, Silva L, Fonseca E, Silva S, Rocha J, et al. (2008) Prevalence, incidence and distribution of citrus variegated chlorosis in Bahia, Brazil. Tropical Plant Pathology 33: 339–347.
77. Stuchi E, Girardi E, (2010) Use of horticultural practices in citriculture to survive huanglongbing. Embrapa Cassava and Fruits Documentos 189: 1–68.
78. Gottwald T, Irey M, (2007) Post-hurricane analysis of citrus canker II: predictive model estimation of disease spread and area potentially impacted by various eradication protocols following catastrophic weather events. Plant Health Progress Online: doi:10.1094/PHP-2007-0405-01-RS
79. Gottwald T, Graham J, Schubert T, (2002) Citrus canker: the pathogen and its impact. Plant Health Progress Online: doi:10.1094/PHP-2002-0812-01-RV
80. Madden L, Hughes G, van den Bosch F (2007) The study of plant disease epidemics. APS Press St. Paul, Minnesota: American Phytopathological Society.
81. Meng X, Li Z, (2010) The dynamics of plant disease models with continuous and impulsive cultural control strategies. Journal of Theoretical Biology 266: 29–40.
82. Forster G, Gilligan C, (2007) Optimising the control of disease infestations at the landscape scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 104: 4984–4989.
83. Ndeffo-Mbah M, Gilligan C, (2010) Optimization of control strategies for epidemics in heterogeneous populations with symmetric and asymmetric transmission. Journal of Theoretical Biology 262: 757–763.