Information (in)efficiency in prediction markets

Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets

Volumn , Issue , 2005, Pages 266-386

  Snowberg, Erik ^a   Wolfers, Justin ^b   Zitzewitz, Eric ^a  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84926997055     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511493614.019     Document Type: Chapter

References (21)

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3. Berg, Joyce, Forsythe, Robert, Nelson, Forrest and Rietz, Thomas (2001) ‘Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research’, in Charles Plott and Vernon Smith (eds.), Handbook of Experimental Economic Results, New York: Elsevier Science
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6. Chen, Kay-Yut and Plott, Charles (2002) ‘Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Field Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem’, Social Science Working paper, 1131, Pasadena: California Institute of Technology
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9. Leigh, Andrew, Wolfers, Justin and Zitzewitz, Eric (2003) ‘What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?’, NBER Working Paper, 9587
10. Manski, Charles (2004) ‘Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets’, NBER Working Paper, 10359, March
11. Ortner, Gerhard (1998) ‘Forecasting Markets - An Industrial Application’, Technical University of Vienna, mimeo
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13. Rhode, Paul and Strumpf, Koleman (2004) ‘Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), pp.127-42
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15. Shiller, Robert (2003) The New Financial Order: Risk in the Twenty-First Century, Princeton: Princeton University Press
16. Snowberg, Erik and Wolfers, Justin (2004) ‘Understanding the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Risk Preferences versus Misperceptions’, University of Pennsylvania, mimeo
17. Strumpf, Koleman (2004) ‘Manipulating the Iowa Political Stock Market’, University of North Carolina, mimeo
18. Tetlock, Paul (2004) ‘How Efficient are Information Markets? Evidence from an Online Exchange’, University of Texas at Austin, mimeo
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21. Wolfers, Justin and Zitzewitz, Eric (2005) ‘Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities’, University of Pennsylvania, mimeo