The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 277-286

  Barnes, Elizabeth A ^a   Screen, James A ^b  

^a Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering and School of Biomedical Engineering   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

TECHNOLOGY;

ARCTIC REGIONS; ARCTIC WARMING; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; JET STREAMS; LOWER ATMOSPHERE; MEDIA ATTENTION; MIDLATITUDES; WEATHER PATTERNS;

SEA ICE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; JET STREAM; MIDLATITUDE ENVIRONMENT;

ARCTIC;

EID: 84926513761     PISSN: 17577780     EISSN: 17577799     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.337     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Greene CH, Francis JA, Monger BC. Superstorm sandy: a series of unfortunate events? Oceanography 2013, 26:8-9.
2. Wallace JM, Held IM, Thompson DWJ, Trenberth KE, Walsh JE. Global warming and winter weather. Science 2014, 343:729-730.
3. Liu J, Curry JA, Wang H, Song M, Horton RM. Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2012, 109:6781-6783.
4. Tang Q, Zhang X, Yang X, Francis JA. Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss. Environ Res Lett 2013, 8:014036.
5. Petoukhov V, Rahmstorf S, Petri S, Schellnhuber HJ. Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2013, 110:5336-5341.
6. Tang Q, Zhang X, Francis JA. Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere. Nat Clim Change 2014, 4:45-50.
7. Coumou D, Petoukhov V, Rahmstorf S, Petri S, Schellnhuber HJ. Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2014, 111:12331-12336.
8. Francis JA, Vavrus SJ. Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 2012, 39:L06801.
9. Hamilton LC, Lemcke-Stampone M. Arctic warming and your weather: public belief in the connection. Int J Climatol 2014, 34:1723-1728.
10. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Branstator G, Phillips AS. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. Nat Clim Change 2014, 4:911-916.
11. Schneider T, Bischoff T, Plotka H. Physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability. J Clim 2014. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1.
12. Screen JA. Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes. Nat Clim Change 2014, 4:577-582.
13. Screen JA, Deser C, Sun L. Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2014. doi: 10.1175/BAMSD-14-00185.1.
14. Bader J, Mesquita MDS, Hodges KI, Keenlyside N, Østerhus S, Miles M. A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: observations and projected changes. Atmos Res 2011, 101:809-834.
15. Cohen J, Screen JA, Furtado JC, Barlow M, Whittleston D, Coumou D, Francis J, Dethloff K, Entekhabi D, Overland J, et al. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nat Geosci 2014, 7:627-637.
16. Vihma T. Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: a review. Surv Geophys 2014, 35:1175-1214.
17. Walsh JE. Intensified warming of the Arctic: causes and impacts on middle latitudes. Glob Planet Change 2014, 117:52-63.
18. Deser C, Tomas R, Alexander M, Lawrence D. The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late 21st century. J Clim 2010, 23:333-351.
19. Screen JA, Simmonds I, Deser C, Tomas R. The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 2013, 26:1230-1248.
20. Peings Y, Magnusdottir G. Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to Arctic sea ice decline: a numerical study with CAM5. J Clim 2014, 27:244-264.
21. Butler AH, Thompson DWJ, Heikes R. The steady-state atmospheric circulation response to climate change-like thermal forcings in a simple general circulation model. J Clim 2010, 23:3474-3476.
22. Screen JA, C Deser, I Simmonds and R Tomas. Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, 1979-2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability. Clim Dyn 2014, 43, 333-344.
23. Balmaseda MA, Ferranti L, Molteni F, Palmer TN. Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions. Q J R Meteorol Soc 2010, 136:1655-1664.
24. Jung T, Kasper MA, Semmler T, Serrar S. Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction. Geophys Res Lett 2014, 41:3676-3680.
25. Lim Y-K, Ham Y-G, Jeong J-H, Kug J-S. Improvement in simulations of Eurasian winter climate variability with a realistic Arctic sea ice condition in an atmospheric GCM. Environ Res Lett 2012, 7:044041.
26. Barnes EA. Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geophys Res Lett 2013, 40:4728-4733.
27. Screen JA, Simmonds I. Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather. Geophys Res Lett 2013, 40:959-964.
28. Barnes EA, Dunn-Sigouin E, Masato E, Woolings T. Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking. Geophys Res Lett 2014, 41:638-644.
29. Overland JE, Wang M. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus 2010, 62A:1-9.
30. Jaiser R, Dethloff K, Handorf D, Rinke A, Cohen J. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus 2012, 64A:11595.
31. Hopsch S, Cohen J, Dethloff K. Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter. Tellus 2012, 64A:18624.
32. Woolings T, Czuchnicki C, Franzke C. Twentieth century North Atlantic jet variability. Q J R Meteorol Soc 2014, 140:783-791.
33. Graversen RG. Do changes in the midlatitude circulation have any impact on the Arctic surface air temperature trend? J Clim 2006, 19:5422-5438.
34. Perlwitz J, Hoerling M, Dole R. Why has the Arctic warmed? J Clim 2014. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00095.1.
35. Screen JA, Deser C, Simmonds I. Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming. Geophys Res Lett 2012, 39:L10709.
36. Ding Q, Wallace JM, Battisti DS, Steig EJ, Gallant AJE, Kim H-J, Geng L. Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland. Nature 2014, 509:209-212.
37. Palmer T. Record-breaking winters and global climate change. Science 2014, 23:803-804.
38. Zhang X, Lu C, Guan Z. Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia. Environ Res Lett 2012, 7:044044.
39. Petoukhov V, Semenov V. A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J Geophys Res 2010, 115:D21111.
40. Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett 2009, 36:L08707.
41. Screen JA. Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation. Environ Res Lett 2013, 8:044015.
42. Barnes EA, Polvani LM. Response of the midlatitude jets, and of their variability, to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models. J Clim 2013, 26:7117-7135.
43. Held I. Large scale dynamics and global warming. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 1993, 74:228-241.
44. Deser C, Tomas RA, Sun L. The role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the zonal-mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim. In press. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00325.1.
45. Haarsma RJ, Selten F, van Oldenborgh GJ. Anthropogenic changes of the thermal and zonal flow structure over Western Europe and Eastern North Atlantic in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 2013, 41:2257-2588.
46. Harvey BJ, Shaffrey LC, Woolings TJ. Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Clim Dyn 2014, 43:1171-1182.
47. Barnes EA and LM Polvani. CMIP5 projections of Arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship. J Clim. In review.
48. Hassanzadeh P, Kuang Z, Farrell BF. Responses of midlatitude blocks and wave amplitude to changes in the meridional temperature gradient of an idealized dry GCM. Geophys Res Lett 2014, 41:5223-5232.
49. Inuoe J, Hori ME, Takaya K. The role of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberia anomaly. J Clim 2012, 25:2561-2568.
50. Kim B-M, Son S-W, Min S-K, Jeong J-H, Kim S-J, Zhang X, Shim T, Yoon J-H. Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss. Nat Commun 2014, 5:4646.
51. US National Academy of Sciences Report. Linkages between Arctic warming and midlatitude weather patterns. Available at: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=18727
52. Annual reports (since 2011) explaining the extreme weather events in the past year from a climate perspective. Available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/extreme-events/