Historical legacies accumulate to shape future biodiversity in an era of rapid global change

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 21, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 534-547

  Essl, Franz ^a,b,c   Dullinger, Stefan ^c   Rabitsch, Wolfgang ^b   Hulme, Philip E ^d   Pyšek, Petr ^e,f   Wilson, John R U ^a,g   Richardson, David M ^a  

^a STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^b ENVIRONMENT AGENCY AUSTRIA   (Austria)

^c UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^d LINCOLN UNIVERSITY   (New Zealand)

^e INSTITUTE OF BOTANY   (Czech Republic)

^f CHARLES UNIVERSITY   (Czech Republic)

^g SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY INSTITUTE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Biological invasions, extinction debt; Framework; Global change; Invasion debt; Management; Thresholds; Time lags

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BIODIVERSITY; BIOLOGICAL INVASION; COMMUNITY RESPONSE; COMMUNITY STRUCTURE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; GLOBAL CHANGE; LEGISLATIVE IMPLEMENTATION; METAPOPULATION; POPULATION STRUCTURE; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; SUCCESSION; THRESHOLD;

EID: 84926407787     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12312     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Aikio, S., Duncan, R.P. & Hulme, P.E. (2010) Lag-phases in alien plant invasions: separating the facts from the artefacts. Oikos, 119, 370-378.
2. Allendorf, F.W. & Hard, J.J. (2009) Human-induced evolution caused by unnatural selection through harvest of wild animals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 106, 9987-9994.
3. Anderson, S.H., Kelly, D., Ladley, J.J., Molloy, S. & Terry, J. (2011) Cascading effects of bird functional extinction reduce pollination and plant density. Science, 331, 1068-1071.
4. Bálint, M., Domisch, S., Engelhardt, C.H., Haase, P., Lehrian, S., Sauer, J., Theissinger, K., Pauls, S. & Nowak, C. (2011) Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change. Nature Climate Change, 1, 313-318.
5. Barnosky, A.D., Matzke, N., Tomiya, S., Wogan, G.O.U., Swartz, B., Quental, T.B., Marshall, C., McGuire, J.L., Lindsey, E.L., Maguire, K.C., Mersey, B. & Ferrer, E.A. (2011) Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature, 471, 51-57.
6. Bergstrom, D.M., Lucieer, A., Kiefer, K., Wasley, J., Belbin, L., Pedersen, T.K. & Chown, S.L. (2009) Indirect effects of invasive species removal devastate World Heritage Island. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46, 73-81.
7. Bertrand, R., Lenoir, J., Piedallu, C., Riofrio-Dillon, G., de Ruffray, P., Vidal, C., Pierrat, J.-C. & Gegout, J.-C. (2012) Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature, 479, 517-520.
8. Blackburn, T.M., Pyšek, P., Bacher, S., Carlton, J.T., Duncan, R.P., Jarošík, V., Wilson, J.R.U. & Richardson, D.M. (2011) A proposed unified framework for biological invasions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26, 333-339.
9. Britton, J.R. (2013) Introduced parasites in food webs: new species, shifting structures? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 29, 93-99.
10. Brook, B.W., Sodhi, N.S. & Bradshaw, C.J.A. (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25, 453-460.
11. Brook, B.W., Ellis, E.W., Perring, M.P., Mackay, A.W. & Blomquist, L. (2013) Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points? Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28, 396-401.
12. Butchart, S.H.M., Walpole, M., Collen, B. et al. (2010) Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science, 328, 1164-1168.
13. Byers, J.E. & Goldwasser, L. (2001) Exposing the mechanism and timing of impact of nonindigenous species on native species. Ecology, 82, 1330-1343.
14. Chen, I.C., Hill, J.K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D.B. & Thomas, C.D. (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024-1026.
15. Cousins, S.A. & Vanhoenacker, D. (2011) Detection of extinction debt depends on scale and specialization. Biological Conservation, 144, 782-787.
16. Devictor, V., Swaay, C., Brereton, T., Brotons, L., Chamberlain, D., Heliölä, J., Herrando, S., Julliard, R., Kuussaari, M., Lindström, A., Reif, J., Roy, D.B., Schweiger, O., Settele, J., Stefanescu, C., van Strien, A., van Turnhout, C., Vermouzek, Z., WalliesDeVries, M. & Wynhoff, I. (2012) Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nature Climate Change, 2, 121-124.
17. Diamond, J.M. (1984) 'Normal' extinction of isolated populations. Extinctions (ed. by M.H. Nitecki), pp. 191-246. Chicago University Press, Chicago.
18. Dukes, J.S., Pontius, J., Orwig, D., Garnas, J.R., Rodgers, V.L., Brazee, N., Cooke, B., Theoharides, K.A., Stange, E.E., Harrington, R., Ehrenfeld, J., Gurevitch, J., Lerdau, M., Stinson, K., Wick, R. & Ayres, M. (2009) Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: what can we predict? Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 39, 231-248.
19. Dullinger, S., Gattringer, A., Thuiller, W. et al. (2012) Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st century climate warming. Nature Climate Change, 2, 619-622.
20. Dullinger, S., Essl, F., Rabitsch, W., Erb, K.H., Gingrich, S., Haberl, H., Hülber, K., Jarošík, V., Krausmann, F., Kühn, I., Pergl, J., Pyšek, P. & Hulme, P.E. (2013) Europe's other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 110, 7342-7347.
21. Dunn, R.R., Harris, N.C., Colwell, R.K., Koh, L.P. & Sodhi, N.S. (2009) The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists? Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 276, 3037-3045.
22. Dunne, J.A. & Williams, R.J. (2009) Cascading extinctions and community collapse in model food webs. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 364, 1711-1723.
23. EEA (1999) Environmental indicators: typology and overview, Technical report no 25. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
24. Essl, F., Dullinger, S., Rabitsch, W., Hulme, P.E., Hülber, K., Jarošik, V., Kleinbauer, I., Krausmann, F., Kühn, I., Nentwig, W., Vilà, M., Genovesi, P., Gherardi, F., Desprez-Lousteau, M.-L., Roques, A. & Pyšek, P. (2011) Socioeconomic legacy yields an invasion debt. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 203-207.
25. Ewers, R.M. & Didham, R.K. (2006) Confounding factors in the detection of species responses to habitat fragmentation. Biological Reviews, 81, 117-142.
26. Galetti, M., Guevara, R., Cortes, M.C., Fadini, R., Van Matter, S., Leite, A.B., Labecca, F., Ribeiro, T., Carvalho, C.S., Collevatti, R.G., Pires, M.M., Guimarães, P.R., Brancalion, P.H., Ribeiro, M.C. & Jordano, P. (2013) Functional extinction of birds drives rapid evolutionary changes in seed size. Science, 340, 1086-1090.
27. Galloway, J.N., Aber, J.D., Erisman, J.W., Seitzinger, S.P., Howarth, R.W., Cowling, E.B. & Cosby, B.J. (2003) The nitrogen cascade. BioScience, 53, 341-356.
28. Gassó, N., Pyšek, P., Vilà, M. & Williamson, M. (2010) Spreading to a limit: the time required for a neophyte to reach its maximum range. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 310-311.
29. Gilbert, B. & Levine, J.M. (2013) Plant invasions and extinction debts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 1744-1749.
30. Grosholz, E.D. (2005) Recent biological invasion may hasten invasional meltdown by accelerating historical introductions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 1088-1091.
31. Hanski, I. & Ovaskainen, O. (2002) Extinction debt at extinction threshold. Conservation Biology, 16, 666-673.
32. Helm, A., Oja, T., Saar, L., Takkis, K., Talve, T. & Paertel, M. (2009) Human influence lowers plant genetic diversity in communities with extinction debt. Journal of Ecology, 97, 1329-1336.
33. Hobbs, R.J., Higgs, E. & Hall, C. (eds) (2013) Novel ecosystems: intervening in the new ecological world order. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.
34. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C.D., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A. & Hatziolos, M.E. (2007) Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science, 318, 1737-1742.
35. Hooper, D.U., Adair, E.C., Cardinale, B.J., Byrnes, J.E.K., Hungate, B.A., Matulich, K.L., Gonzalez, A., Duffy, J.E., Gamfeldt, L. & O'Connor, M.I.O. (2012) A global synthesis reveals biodiversity loss as a major driver of ecosystem change. Nature, 486, 105-108.
36. Hughes, T.P., Linares, C., Dakos, V., van de Leemput, I.A. & van Nes, E.H. (2013) Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28, 149-155.
37. Hulme, P.E. (2014) Alien plants confront expectation of climate change impacts. Trends in Plant Science, 19, 547-549.
38. Hulme, P.E., Pyšek, P., Jarošik, V., Pergl, J., Schaffner, U. & Vilá, M. (2013) Bias and error in understanding plant invasion impacts. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28, 212-218.
39. Hylander, K. & Ehrlén, J. (2013) The mechanisms causing extinction debts. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28, 341-346.
40. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013. The physical science basis. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 (accessed 1 November 2013).
41. Isbell, F., Calcagno, V., Hector, A., Connolly, J., Harpole, W.S., Reich, P.B., Scherer-Lorenzen, M., Schmid, B., Tilman, D., van Ruijven, J., Weigelt, A., Wilsey, B.J., Zavaleta, E.S. & Loreau, M. (2011) High plant diversity is needed to maintain ecosystem services. Nature, 477, 199-202.
42. Jackson, T. & Sax, D.F. (2009) Balancing biodiversity in a changing environment: extinction debt, immigration credit and species turnover. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25, 153-160.
43. Keesing, F., Belden, L.K., Daszak, P., Dobson, A., Harvell, C.D., Holt, R.D., Hudson, P., Jolles, A., Jones, K.E., Michell, C.E., Myers, S.S., Bogich, T. & Ostfeld, R.S. (2010) Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature, 468, 647-652.
44. Knutti, R. & Sedláček, J. (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change, 3, 369-373.
45. Koh, L.P., Dunn, R.R., Sodhi, N.S., Colwell, R.K., Proctor, H.C. & Smith, V.S. (2004) Species coextinctions and the biodiversity crisis. Science, 305, 1632-1634.
46. Kowarik, I. (1995) Time lags in biological invasions with regard to the success and failure of alien species. Plant invasions - general aspects and special problems (ed. by P. Pyšek, K. Prach, M. Rejmánek and P.M. Wade), pp. 15-38. SPB Academic Publishing, Amsterdam.
47. Krauss, J.R., Bommarco, R., Guardiola, M., Heikkinen, R.K., Helm, A., Kuussaari, M., Lindborg, R., Ockinger, E., Pärtel, M., Pino, J., Pöyry, J., Raatikainen, K.M., Sang, A., Stefanescu, C., Teder, T., Zobel, M. & Steffan-Dewenter, I. (2010) Habitat fragmentation causes immediate and time-delayed biodiversity loss at different trophic levels. Ecology Letters, 13, 597-605.
48. Kreyling, J., Jentsch, A. & Beierkuhnlein, C. (2011) Stochastic trajectories of succession initiated by extreme climatic events. Ecology Letters, 14, 758-764.
49. Kuussaari, M., Bommarco, R., Heikkinen, R.K., Helm, A., Krauss, J., Lindborg, R., Öckinger, E., Pärtel, M., Pino, J., Roda, F., Stefanescu, C., Teder, T., Zobel, M. & Steffan-Dewenter, I. (2009) Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 24, 564-571.
50. Leadley, P., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F., Proença, V., Scharlemann, J.P.W. & Walpole, M.J. (2010) Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. CBD Technical Series 50.
51. Ledger, M.E., Brown, L.E., Edwards, L.E., Edwards, F.K., Milner, A.M. & Woodward, G. (2013) Drought alters the structure and functioning of complex food webs. Nature Climate Change, 3, 223-227.
52. Loarie, S.R., Duffy, P.B., Hamilton, H., Asner, G.P., Field, C.B. & Ackerly, D.D. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462, 1052-1055.
53. McCarthy, D.P. (2012) Financial costs of meeting global biodiversity conservation targets: current spending and unmet needs. Science, 338, 946-949.
54. Mitchell, C.E., Blumenthal, D., Jarošík, V., Puckett, E.E. & Pyšek, P. (2010) Controls on pathogen species richness in plants' introduced and native ranges: roles of residence time, range size, and host traits. Ecology Letters, 13, 1525-1535.
55. Pacala, S.W., Canham, C.D., Sapaonara, J., Silander, J.A., Kobe, R.K. & Ribbens, E. (1996) Forest models defined by field measurements: estimation, error analysis, and dynamics. Eoclogical Monographs, 66, 1-43.
56. Pauls, S.U., Nowak, C., Bálint, M. & Pfenninger, M. (2013) The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species. Molecular Ecology, 22, 925-946.
57. Perrings, C., Duraiappah, A., Larigauderie, A. & Mooney, H. (2011) The biodiversity and ecosystem services science-policy interface. Science, 331, 1139-1140.
58. Posch, M. (2003) Manual for dynamic modelling of soil response to atmospheric deposition. RIVM Report 259101012/2003.
59. Potts, S.G., Biesmeijer, J.C., Kremen, C., Neumann, P., Schweiger, O. & Kunin, W.E. (2010) Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25, 345-353.
60. Pyšek, P., Jarošík, V., Chytrý, M., Danihelka, J., Kühn, I., Pergl, J., Tichý, L., Biesmeijer, J., Ellis, W.N., Kunin, W.E. & Settele, J. (2011) Successful invaders co-opt pollinators of native flora and accumulate insect pollinators with increasing residence time. Ecological Monographs, 81, 277-293.
61. Redman, C.L., Grove, J.M. & Kuby, L.H. (2004) Integrating social science into the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network: social dimensions of ecological change and ecological dimensions of social change. Ecosystems, 7, 161-171.
62. Richmond, J., Reid, D.T., Ashton, K.G. & Zamudio, K.R. (2009) Delayed genetic effects of habitat fragmentation on the ecologically specialized Florida sand skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi). Conservation Genetics, 10, 1281-1297.
63. Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K. et al. (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472-475.
64. Scheffer, M. & Carpenter, S.R. (2003) Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 18, 648-656.
65. Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M. & Sugihara, G. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461, 53-59.
66. Schweiger, O., Biesmeijer, J.C., Bommarco, R. et al. (2010) Multiple stressors on biotic interactions: how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination. Biological Reviews, 85, 777-795.
67. Seidl, R. (2014) The shape of ecosystem management to come: anticipating risks and fostering resilience. BioScience, 64, 1159-1169.
68. Shaw, J., Terauds, A. & Bergstrom, D. (2011) Rapid commencement of ecosystem recovery following aerial baiting on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Ecological Management and Restoration, 12, 241-244.
69. Simberloff, D. & Von Holle, B. (1999) Positive interactions of nonindigenous species: invasional meltdown? Biological Invasions, 1, 21-32.
70. Skelly, D.K., Shaw, R.G. & Etterson, J.R. (2007) Evolutionary responses to climate change. Conservation Biology, 21, 1353-1355.
71. Sperry, L.J., Belnap, J. & Evans, R.D. (2006) Bromus tectorum invasion alters nitrogen dynamics in an undisturbed arid grassland ecosystem. Ecology, 87, 603-615.
72. Stallins, J.A. (2006) Geomorphology and ecology: unifying themes for complex systems in biogeomorphology. Geomorphology, 77, 207-216.
73. Strayer, D.L., Eviner, V.T., Jeschke, J.M. & Pace, M.L. (2006) Understanding the long-term effects of species invasions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21, 645-651.
74. Svenning, J.C. & Sandel, B. (2013) Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change. American Journal of Botany, 100, 1266-1286.
75. Svenning, J.C. & Skov, F. (2007) Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by postglacial dispersal limitation? Ecology Letters, 10, 453-460.
76. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
77. Tilman, D., May, R.M., Lehman, C.L. & Nowak, M.A. (1994) Habitat destruction and the extinction debt. Nature, 371, 65-66.
78. Tittensor, D.P., Walpole, M., Hill, S.L.L. et al. (2014) A mid-term analysis of progress towards international biodiversity targets. Science, 346, 241-244.
79. Vilà, M., Espinar, J.L., Hejda, M., Hulme, P.E., Jarošík, V., Maron, J.L., Pergl, J., Schaffner, U., Sun, Y. & Pyšek, P. (2011) Ecological impacts of invasive alien plants: a meta-analysis of their effects on species, communities and ecosystems. Ecology Letters, 14, 702-708.
80. Wearn, O., Reumann, D.C. & Ewers, R.M. (2012) Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon. Science, 337, 228-232.