Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

Nature Communications

Volumn 6, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Swingedouw, Didier ^a   Ortega, Pablo ^b   Mignot, Juliette ^b,c   Guilyardi, Eric ^b,d   Masson Delmotte, Valérie ^e   Butler, Paul G ^f   Khodri, Myriam ^b   Séférian, Roland ^g  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE BORDEAUX   (France)

^b SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^d UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^e LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^f BANGOR UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^g CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; DECADAL VARIATION; OCEANIC CIRCULATION; PALEOCLIMATE; SALINITY; VOLCANIC ERUPTION;

ADVECTION; ARTICLE; ATLANTIC OCEAN; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; DATA ANALYSIS; DATA BASE; GREENLAND; ICELAND; PALEOCLIMATE; SALINITY; SIMULATION; VOLCANO;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); CENTRAL LUZON; LUZON; MOUNT PINATUBO; PHILIPPINES; ZAMBALES;

EID: 84926342920     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7545     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Wunsch, C. Oceanography. What is the thermohaline circulation? Science 298, 1179-1181 (2002).
2. Straneo, F. & Heimbach, P. North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers. Nature 504, 36-43 (2013).
3. Latif, M., Collins, M., Pohlmann, H. & Keenlyside, N. A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J. Clim. 19, 5971-5987 (2006).
4. Smith, D. M. et al. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317, 796-799 (2007).
5. Doblas-Reyes, F. J. et al. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nat. Commun. 4, 1715 (2013).
6. Weaver, A. J. et al. Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a model intercomparison. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L70209. doi: 10.1029/2012GL053763 (2012).
7. Swingedouw, D. et al. On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment. Clim. Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2184-7 (2015).
8. McCarthy, G. et al. Observed interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L19609. doi: 10.1029/2012GL052933 (2012).
9. Mercier, H. et al. Variability of the meridional overturning circulation at the Greenland-Portugal OVIDE section from 1993 to 2010. Prog. Oceanogr. (in the press).
10. Robson, J., Hodson, D., Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. Atlantic overturning in decline? Nat. Geosci. 7, 2-3 (2013).
11. Smeed, D. a. et al. Observed decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 2004 to 2012. Ocean Sci. 10, 1619-1645 (2013).
12. Reichler, T., Kim, J., Manzini, E. & Kröger, J. A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability. Nat. Geosci. 5, 783-787 (2012).
13. Huck, T., de Verdière, A. C., Estrade, P. & Schopp, R. Low-frequency variations of the large-scale ocean circulation and heat transport in the North Atlantic from 1955-1998 in situ temperature and salinity data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, 1-5 (2008).
14. Vianna, M. L. & Menezes, V. V. Bidecadal sea level modes in the North and South Atlantic Oceans. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 5926-5931 (2013).
15. Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Labetoulle, S., Guilyardi, E. & Madec, G. Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model. Clim. Dyn. 40, 2381-2399 (2013).
16. Chylek, P., Folland, C. K., Dijkstra, H. A., Lesins, G. & Dubey, M. K. Ice-core data evidence for a prominent near 20 year time-scale of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13704. doi 10.1029/2011GL047501 (2011).
17. Divine, D. V. & Dick, C. Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas. J. Geophys. Res. 111, C01001 (2006).
18. Sicre, M.-A. et al. Decadal variability of sea surface temperatures off North Iceland over the last 2000 years. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 268, 137-142 (2008).
19. Cronin, T., Farmer, J. & Marzen, R. Late holocene sea-level variability and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Paleoceanography 29, 765-777 (2014).
20. Escudier, R., Mignot, J. & Swingedouw, D. A 20-year coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere variability mode in the North Atlantic in an AOGCM. Clim. Dyn. 40, 619-636 (2013).
21. Frankcombe, L. M., von der Heydt, A. & Dijkstra, H. A. North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability: an investigation of dominant time scales and processes. J. Clim. 23, 3626-3638 (2010).
22. Belkin, I. M., Levitus, S., Antonov, J. & Malmberg, S.-A. 'Great Salinity Anomalies' in the North Atlantic. Prog. Oceanogr. 41, 1-68 (1998).
23. Belkin, I. M. Propagation of the 'Great Salinity Anomaly' of the 1990s around the northern North Atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, 5-8 (2004).
24. Sundby, S. & Drinkwater, K. On the mechanisms behind salinity anomaly signals of the northern North Atlantic. Prog. Oceanogr. 73, 190-202 (2007).
25. Robock, A. Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys. 38, 191-219 (2000).
26. Timmreck, C. Modeling the climatic effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 3, 545-564 (2012).
27. Driscoll, S., Bozzo, A., Gray, L. J., Robock, A. & Stenchikov, G. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117, D17105 doi 10.1029/2012JD017607 (2012).
28. Stenchikov, G. Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion. J. Geophys. Res. 107, 4803 (2002).
29. Hurrell, J. W. Decadal trends in the north atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269, 676-679 (1995).
30. Robock, A. & Mao, J. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 2405-2408 (1992).
31. Otterå, O. H. Simulating the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 25, 213-226 (2008).
32. Zanchettin, D. et al. Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Clim. Dyn. 39, 419-444 (2012).
33. Otterå, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H. & Suo, L. External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nat. Geosci. 3, 688-694 (2010).
34. Mignot, J., Khodri, M., Frankignoul, C. & Servonnat, J. Volcanic impact on the Atlantic Ocean over the last millennium. Clim. Past 7, 1439-1455 (2011).
35. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. A. Summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012).
36. Dufresne, J.-L. et al. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dyn. 40, 2123-2165 (2013).
37. Menary, M. B. & Scaife, A. A. Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Clim. Dyn. 42, 1347-1362 (2014).
38. Stenchikov, G. et al. Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models. J. Geophys. Res. D Atmos. 107, D244803 doi: 10.1029/2002JD002090 (2002).
39. Colin de Verdière, A. & Huck, T. Baroclinic instability: an oceanic wavemaker for interdecadal variability. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 29, 893-910 (1999).
40. Dijkstra, H. A. & Ghil, M. Low-frequency variability of the large-scale ocean circulation: a dynamical systems approach. Rev. Geophys. 43, 1-38 (2005).
41. Persechino, A., Mignot, J., Swingedouw, D., Labetoulle, S. & Guilyardi, E. Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. Clim. Dyn. 40, 2359-2380 (2013).
42. Reverdin, G. North Atlantic subpolar gyre surface variability (1895-2009). J. Clim. 23, 4571-4584 (2010).
43. Ingleby, B. & Huddleston, M. Quality control of ocean temperature and salinity profiles - Historical and real-time data. J. Mar. Syst. 65, 158-175 (2007).
44. Rayner, N. a. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 108, D14 4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 (2003).
45. Kerr, R. A. A north atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science 288, 1984-1985 (2000).
46. Mann, M. E. et al. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326, 1256-1260 (2009).
47. Gray, S. T., Graumlich, L. J., Betancourt, J. L. & Pederson, G. A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567A.D. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, 2-5 (2004).
48. Chylek, P. et al. Greenland ice core evidence for spatial and temporal variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L09705. doi: 10.1029/2012GL051241 (2012).
49. Butler, P. G., Wanamaker, A. D., Scourse, J. D., Richardson, C. a. & Reynolds, D. J. Variability of marine climate on the North Icelandic Shelf in a 1357-year proxy archive based on growth increments in the bivalve Arctica islandica. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 373, 141-151 (2013).
50. Auger, P. a. et al. Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: results from a 30-year 3D modeling study. Prog. Oceanogr. 124, 12-27 (2014).
51. Aumont, O. & Bopp, L. Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 20, GB2017. doi: 10.1029/2005GB002591 (2006).
52. Lehner, F., Raible, C. C. & Stocker, T. F. Testing the robustness of a precipitation proxy-based North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction. Quat. Sci. Rev. 45, 85-94 (2012).
53. Ammann, C. M., Joos, F., Schimel, D. S., Otto-Bliesner, B. L. & Tomas, R. A. Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 3713-3718 (2007).
54. Knight, J. R. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20728. doi: 10.1029/2005GL024233 (2005).
55. Eden, C. & Willebrand, J. Mechanism of interannual to decadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation. J. Clim. 14, 2266-2280 (2001).
56. Böning, C. W., Scheinert, M., Dengg, J., Biastoch, A. & Funk, A. Decadal variability of subpolar gyre transport and its reverberation in the North Atlantic overturning. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L21S01 (2006).
57. Graf, H.-F., Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C. & Bittner, M. Observational constraints on the tropospheric and near-surface winter signature of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex. Clim. Dyn. 43, 3245-3266 (2014).
58. Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nunez, A. M. & Gray, W. M. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293, 474-479 (2001).
59. Hoerling, M., Hurrell, J., Eischeid, J. & Phillips, A. Detection and attribution of twentieth-century Northern and Southern African rainfall change. J. Clim. 19, 3989-4008 (2006).
60. Levermann, A., Griesel, A., Hofmann, M., Montoya, M. & Rahmstorf, S. Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation. Clim. Dyn. 24, 347-354 (2005).
61. Hourdin, F. et al. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Clim. Dyn. 27, 787-813 (2006).
62. Madec, G. NEMO Ocean Engine (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), 2008).
63. Fichefet, T. & Morales Maqueda, A. M. Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 2609-2612 (1997).
64. Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A. & Usoskin, I. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene. Astron. Astrophys. 531, A6 doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201015843 (2011).
65. Grieser, J. & Schonwiese, C. D. Parameterization of spatio-temporal patterns of volcanic aerosol induced stratospheric optical depth and its climate radiative forcing. Atmosfera 12, 111-133 (1999).
66. Ortega, P. et al. Characterizing atmospheric circulation signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from a weather regime approach. Clim. Dyn. (2014).
67. Wanamaker, A. D. et al. Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium. Nat. Commun. 3, 899 (2012).
68. Drinkwater, K. F. et al. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: its manifestations and impacts with special emphasis on the Atlantic region north of 60°N. J. Mar. Syst. 133, 117-130 (2013).
69. Sévellec, F. & Fedorov, A. V. The leading, interdecadal Eigenmode of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a realistic ocean model. J. Clim. 26, 2160-2183 (2013).
70. Bretherton, C., Widmann, M., Dymnikov, V., Wallace, J. & Blade, I. The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J. Clim. 12, 1990-2009 (1999).