For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment

Judgment and Decision Making

Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 50-64

  Fischhoff, Baruch ^a,b  

^a Howard Heinz University   (United States)

^b CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84925710829     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.4324/9780203141939     Document Type: Chapter

References (57)

1. Bar-Hillel, M. 1973 "On the Subjective Probability of Compound Events." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 396-406.
2. Barraclough, G. 1972 "Mandarins and Nazis." New York Review of Books, 19(6), 37-42.
3. Becker, C. 1935 "Everyman His Own Historian." American Historical Review, 40, 221-236.
4. Benson, L. 1972 Toward the Scientific Study of History Selected Essays. Philadelphia: Lippincott.
5. Brown, E.A.R. 1974 "The Tyranny of a Construct: Feudalism and Historians of Medieval Europe." American Historical Review, 79, 1063-1088.
6. Campbell, D. T. 1975. "'Degrees of Freedom' and the Case Study." Comparative Political Studies, 8, 178-193.
7. Carlsson G. 1972. "Random Walk Effects in Behavioral Data." Behavioral Science, 17, 430-437.
8. Carr, E.H. 1961. What Is History? London, Macmillan.
9. Coles, R. 1973 "Shrinking History." New York Review of Books, Part I in Feb 22, 1973, 20, pp. 15-21 and Part II in Mar. 8, 20, pp. 25-29.
10. Commager, H.S. 1965. The Nature and Study of History. Columbus, Ohio: Merrill.
11. Dawes, R. M. 1979. "The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making." American Psychologist, 34, 571-582.
12. Dawes, R. M., and Corrigan, B. 1974. "Linear Models in Decision Making." Psychological Bulletin, 81 (2), 95-106.
13. Degler, C. N. 1976. "Why Historians Change Their Minds." Pacific Historical Review, 48, 167-189.
14. Diaconis, P. 1978 "Statistical Problems in ESP Research." Science, 201, 131-136.
15. Dreman, D. 1980 Contrarian Investment Strategy. New York: Random House.
16. Fama, E. F. 1965. "Random Walks in Stock Market Prices." Financial Analysts Journal, 21, 55-60.
17. Feller, W. 1968 An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. (3rd ed.) Vol. 1. New York: Harper and Row.
18. Fischer, D. H. 1970. Historian's Fallacies. New York: Harper and Row.
19. Fischhoff, B. 1975 "Hindsight Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299.
20. Fischhoff, B. 1977 "Perceived Informativeness of Facts." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349-358.
21. Fischhoff, B. 1978 "Intuitive Use of Formal Models. A Comment on Morrison's 'Quantitative Models in History." History and Theory, 17, 207-210.
22. Fischhoff, B. 1981 "No Man Is a Discipline." In J. Harvey (Ed.), Cognition, Social Behavior, and the Environment. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
23. Fischhoff, B., and Beyth, R. 1975 "'I Knew It Would Happen'-Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1-16.
24. Fischhoff, B., Goitein, B., and Shapira, Z. 1982 "The Experienced Utility of Expected Utility Approaches." In N. Feather (Ed.), Expectancy, Incentive, and Action. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
25. Fischhoff, B., and Slovic, P. 1980 "A Little Learning …: Confidence in Multicue Judgment." In R. Nickerson (Ed.), Attention and performance, 8 (pp. 779-800). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
26. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S 1977 "Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552-564.
27. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S. 1978 "Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Estimated Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330-344.
28. Florovsky, G. 1969 "The Study of the Past." In R. H. Nash (Ed.), Ideas of History. Vol. 2, New York: Dutton.
29. Furby, L. 1973 "Interpreting Regression Toward the Mean in Developmental Research." Developmental Psychology, 8, 172-179.
30. Gallie, W. B. 1964. Philosophy and the Historical Understanding. London: Chatto and Windus.
31. Goldberg, L. R. 1968. "Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Research on Clinical Judgments." American Psychologist, 23, 483-496.
32. Goldberg, L. R. 1970. "Man Versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence, for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inference." Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422-432.
33. Hexter, J. H. 1971. The History Primer. New York: Basic Books.
34. Hoffman, P. J. 1960. "The Paramorphic Representation of Clinical Judgment." Psychological Bulletin, 47, 116-131.
35. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1972 "Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness." Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
36. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1973 "On the Psychology of Prediction." Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
37. Kates, R. W. 1962. Hazard and Choice Perception in Flood Plain Management, Research Paper No. 78. Chicago: University of Chicago, Department of Geography.
38. Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., and Fischhoff, B. 1980 "Reasons for Confidence." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118.
39. Lakatos, I. 1970 "Falsification and Scientific Research Programmes." In I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave (Eds.), Criticism and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
40. Lindman, H. G., and Edwards, W. 1961. "Supplementary Report: Unlearning the Gamblers' Fallacy" Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62, 630.
41. Marwick, A. 1970 The Nature of History. London: Macmillan.
42. Meehl, P.E. 1970. "Nuisance Variables and the Ex Post Facto Design." In M. Radner and S. Winokur (Eds), Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
43. Morrison, R. J. 1977. "Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Supreme Court: An Example of the Use of Probability Theory in Political History." History and Theory, 16, 137-146.
44. Nowell-Smith, P.H. 1970. "Historical Explanation." In H. E. Kiefer and M. K. Munitz (Eds), Mind, Science, and History Albany: State University of New York Press.
45. O'Leary, M. K., Coplin, W. D., Shapiro, H. B., and Dean, D. 1974. "The Quest for Relevance." International Studies Quarterly, 18, 211-237.
46. Slovic, P. 1974 "Hypothesis Testing in the Learning of Positive and Negative Linear Functions" Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 11, 368-376.
47. Slovic, P., and Fischhoff, B. 1977 "On the Psychology of Experimental Surprises." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 544-551.
48. Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S. 1976 "Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking." In J. S. Carroll and J. W. Payne (Eds.), Cognition and Social Behavior, Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
49. Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S. 1971 "Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 649-744.
50. Strachey, L. 1918 Eminent Victorians. New York: Putnam's.
51. Tawney, R. H. 1961. The Agrarian Problem in the Sixteenth Century, New York: Franklin.
52. Tufte, E. R., and Sun, R. A. 1975. "Are There Bellwether Electoral Districts?" The Public Opinion Quarterly, 39, 1-18.
53. Tukey, J. W. 1977. "Some Thoughts on Clinical Trials, Especially Problems of Multiplicity." Science, 198, 679-690.
54. Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. 1971 "The Belief in the 'Law of Small Numbers.'" Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105-110.
55. Wilks, S. S. 1938. "Weighting Systems for Linear Functions of Correlated Variables When There Is No Dependent Variable." Psychometrika, 3, 23-40.
56. Wohlstetter, R. 1962 Pearl Harbor: Warnings and Decision. Stanford, Calif: Stanford University Press.
57. Yarrow, M., Campbell, J. D., and Burton, R. V. 1970 "Recollections of Childhood: A Study of the Retrospective Method." Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, 35 (5).