메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 50-64

For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 84925710829     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.4324/9780203141939     Document Type: Chapter
Times cited : (2)

References (57)
  • 3
    • 0039882241 scopus 로고
    • Everyman his own historian
    • Becker, C. 1935 "Everyman His Own Historian." American Historical Review, 40, 221-236.
    • (1935) American Historical Review , vol.40 , pp. 221-236
    • Becker, C.1
  • 5
    • 1342285333 scopus 로고
    • The tyranny of a construct: Feudalism and historians of medieval europe
    • Brown, E.A.R. 1974 "The Tyranny of a Construct: Feudalism and Historians of Medieval Europe." American Historical Review, 79, 1063-1088.
    • (1974) American Historical Review , vol.79 , pp. 1063-1088
    • Brown, E.A.R.1
  • 6
    • 84965950014 scopus 로고
    • Degrees of freedom' and the case study
    • Campbell, D. T. 1975. "'Degrees of Freedom' and the Case Study." Comparative Political Studies, 8, 178-193.
    • (1975) Comparative Political Studies , vol.8 , pp. 178-193
    • Campbell, D.T.1
  • 7
    • 34247962827 scopus 로고
    • Random walk effects in behavioral data
    • Carlsson G. 1972. "Random Walk Effects in Behavioral Data." Behavioral Science, 17, 430-437.
    • (1972) Behavioral Science , vol.17 , pp. 430-437
    • Carlsson, G.1
  • 9
    • 84863699424 scopus 로고
    • Shrinking history
    • Part I in Feb 22, and Part II in Mar. 8, 20, pp. 25-29
    • Coles, R. 1973 "Shrinking History." New York Review of Books, Part I in Feb 22, 1973, 20, pp. 15-21 and Part II in Mar. 8, 20, pp. 25-29.
    • (1973) New York Review of Books , vol.20 , pp. 15-21
    • Coles, R.1
  • 11
    • 0011780476 scopus 로고
    • The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
    • Dawes, R. M. 1979. "The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making." American Psychologist, 34, 571-582.
    • (1979) American Psychologist , vol.34 , pp. 571-582
    • Dawes, R.M.1
  • 12
    • 0016381404 scopus 로고
    • Linear models in decision making
    • Dawes, R. M., and Corrigan, B. 1974. "Linear Models in Decision Making." Psychological Bulletin, 81 (2), 95-106.
    • (1974) Psychological Bulletin , vol.81 , Issue.2 , pp. 95-106
    • Dawes, R.M.1    Corrigan, B.2
  • 13
    • 84968147062 scopus 로고
    • Why historians change their minds
    • Degler, C. N. 1976. "Why Historians Change Their Minds." Pacific Historical Review, 48, 167-189.
    • (1976) Pacific Historical Review , vol.48 , pp. 167-189
    • Degler, C.N.1
  • 14
    • 0018103877 scopus 로고
    • Statistical problems in esp research
    • Diaconis, P. 1978 "Statistical Problems in ESP Research." Science, 201, 131-136.
    • (1978) Science , vol.201 , pp. 131-136
    • Diaconis, P.1
  • 16
    • 0002434061 scopus 로고
    • Random walks in stock market prices
    • Fama, E. F. 1965. "Random Walks in Stock Market Prices." Financial Analysts Journal, 21, 55-60.
    • (1965) Financial Analysts Journal , vol.21 , pp. 55-60
    • Fama, E.F.1
  • 21
    • 84925911213 scopus 로고
    • Intuitive use of formal models. A comment on morrison's 'quantitative models in history
    • Fischhoff, B. 1978 "Intuitive Use of Formal Models. A Comment on Morrison's 'Quantitative Models in History." History and Theory, 17, 207-210.
    • (1978) History and Theory , vol.17 , pp. 207-210
    • Fischhoff, B.1
  • 23
    • 0016613601 scopus 로고
    • I knew it would happen'-remembered probabilities of once-future things
    • Fischhoff, B., and Beyth, R. 1975 "'I Knew It Would Happen'-Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1-16.
    • (1975) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.13 , pp. 1-16
    • Fischhoff, B.1    Beyth, R.2
  • 24
    • 0000958283 scopus 로고
    • The experienced utility of expected utility approaches
    • N. Feather, Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum
    • Fischhoff, B., Goitein, B., and Shapira, Z. 1982 "The Experienced Utility of Expected Utility Approaches." In N. Feather (Ed.), Expectancy, Incentive, and Action. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
    • (1982) Expectancy, Incentive, and Action
    • Shapira, Z.1
  • 25
    • 0001805401 scopus 로고
    • A little learning …: Confidence in multicue judgment
    • R. Nickerson, Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum
    • Fischhoff, B., and Slovic, P. 1980 "A Little Learning …: Confidence in Multicue Judgment." In R. Nickerson (Ed.), Attention and performance, 8 (pp. 779-800). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
    • (1980) Attention and Performance , vol.8 , pp. 779-800
    • Slovic, P.1
  • 28
    • 0346582624 scopus 로고
    • The study of the past
    • R. H. Nash, New York: Dutton
    • Florovsky, G. 1969 "The Study of the Past." In R. H. Nash (Ed.), Ideas of History. Vol. 2, New York: Dutton.
    • (1969) Ideas of History , vol.2
    • Florovsky, G.1
  • 29
    • 0015707465 scopus 로고
    • Interpreting regression toward the mean in developmental research
    • Furby, L. 1973 "Interpreting Regression Toward the Mean in Developmental Research." Developmental Psychology, 8, 172-179.
    • (1973) Developmental Psychology , vol.8 , pp. 172-179
    • Furby, L.1
  • 31
    • 0014304554 scopus 로고
    • Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgments
    • Goldberg, L. R. 1968. "Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Research on Clinical Judgments." American Psychologist, 23, 483-496.
    • (1968) American Psychologist , vol.23 , pp. 483-496
    • Goldberg, L.R.1
  • 32
    • 0000044792 scopus 로고
    • Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inference
    • Goldberg, L. R. 1970. "Man Versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence, for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inference." Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422-432.
    • (1970) Psychological Bulletin , vol.73 , pp. 422-432
    • Goldberg, L.R.1
  • 34
    • 0001172853 scopus 로고
    • The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment
    • Hoffman, P. J. 1960. "The Paramorphic Representation of Clinical Judgment." Psychological Bulletin, 47, 116-131.
    • (1960) Psychological Bulletin , vol.47 , pp. 116-131
    • Hoffman, P.J.1
  • 35
    • 49649138413 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
    • Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1972 "Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness." Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
    • (1972) Cognitive Psychology , vol.3 , pp. 430-454
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 36
    • 58149417364 scopus 로고
    • On the psychology of prediction
    • Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1973 "On the Psychology of Prediction." Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
    • (1973) Psychological Review , vol.80 , pp. 237-251
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 39
    • 84925828653 scopus 로고
    • Falsification and scientific research programmes
    • I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Lakatos, I. 1970 "Falsification and Scientific Research Programmes." In I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave (Eds.), Criticism and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1970) Criticism and The Growth of Scientific Knowledge
    • Lakatos, I.1
  • 42
    • 0000575853 scopus 로고
    • Nuisance variables and the ex post facto design
    • M. Radner and S. Winokur, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press
    • Meehl, P.E. 1970. "Nuisance Variables and the Ex Post Facto Design." In M. Radner and S. Winokur (Eds), Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
    • (1970) Minnesota Studies In the Philosophy of Science
    • Meehl, P.E.1
  • 43
    • 3543050979 scopus 로고
    • Franklin D. Roosevelt and the supreme court: An example of the use of probability theory in political history
    • Morrison, R. J. 1977. "Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Supreme Court: An Example of the Use of Probability Theory in Political History." History and Theory, 16, 137-146.
    • (1977) History and Theory , vol.16 , pp. 137-146
    • Morrison, R.J.1
  • 44
    • 84916678228 scopus 로고
    • Historical explanation
    • H. E. Kiefer and M. K. Munitz, Albany: State University of New York Press
    • Nowell-Smith, P.H. 1970. "Historical Explanation." In H. E. Kiefer and M. K. Munitz (Eds), Mind, Science, and History Albany: State University of New York Press.
    • (1970) Mind, Science, and History
    • Nowell-Smith, P.H.1
  • 46
    • 0346480960 scopus 로고
    • Hypothesis testing in the learning of positive and negative linear functions
    • Slovic, P. 1974 "Hypothesis Testing in the Learning of Positive and Negative Linear Functions" Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 11, 368-376.
    • (1974) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.11 , pp. 368-376
    • Slovic, P.1
  • 48
    • 0000480165 scopus 로고
    • Cognitive processes and societal risk taking
    • J. S. Carroll and J. W. Payne, Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum
    • Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S. 1976 "Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking." In J. S. Carroll and J. W. Payne (Eds.), Cognition and Social Behavior, Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
    • (1976) Cognition and Social Behavior
    • Lichtenstein, S.1
  • 49
    • 49649151167 scopus 로고
    • Comparison of bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment
    • Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S. 1971 "Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 649-744.
    • (1971) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.6 , pp. 649-744
    • Slovic, P.1    Lichtenstein, S.2
  • 52
    • 34247960869 scopus 로고
    • Are there bellwether electoral districts??
    • Tufte, E. R., and Sun, R. A. 1975. "Are There Bellwether Electoral Districts?" The Public Opinion Quarterly, 39, 1-18.
    • (1975) The Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.39 , pp. 1-18
    • Tufte, E.R.1    Sun, R.A.2
  • 53
    • 0017778629 scopus 로고
    • Some thoughts on clinical trials, especially problems of multiplicity
    • Tukey, J. W. 1977. "Some Thoughts on Clinical Trials, Especially Problems of Multiplicity." Science, 198, 679-690.
    • (1977) Science , vol.198 , pp. 679-690
    • Tukey, J.W.1
  • 54
    • 33745847757 scopus 로고
    • The belief in the 'law of small numbers.'
    • Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. 1971 "The Belief in the 'Law of Small Numbers.'" Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105-110.
    • (1971) Psychological Bulletin , vol.76 , pp. 105-110
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 55
    • 0002279938 scopus 로고
    • Weighting systems for linear functions of correlated variables when there is no dependent variable
    • Wilks, S. S. 1938. "Weighting Systems for Linear Functions of Correlated Variables When There Is No Dependent Variable." Psychometrika, 3, 23-40.
    • (1938) Psychometrika , vol.3 , pp. 23-40
    • Wilks, S.S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.