Projection of Indian summer monsoon climate in 2041-2060 by multiregional and global climate models

Journal of Geophysical Research

Volumn 120, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 1776-1793

  Niu, Xiaorui ^a   Wang, Shuyu ^a   Tang, Jianping ^a   Lee, Dong Kyou ^b   Gutowski, William ^c   Dairaku, Koji ^d   McGregor, John ^e   Katzfey, Jack ^e   Gao, Xuejie ^f   Wu, Jia ^g   Hong, Songyou ^h   Wang, Yuqing ⁱ   Sasaki, Hidetaka ^j  

^a NANJING UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b Seoul National University   (South Korea)

^c IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR EARTH SCIENCE AND DISASTER PREVENTION   (Japan)

^e CSIRO   (Australia)

^f INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^g Chinese Meteorology Administration   (China)

^h Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems   (South Korea)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^j METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SUMMER;

INDIA;

EID: 84925665356     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: 21562202     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022620     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Acharya, N., S. C. Kar, U. Mohanty, M. A. Kulkarni, and S. Dash (2011), Performance of GCMs for seasonal prediction over India-A case study for 2009 monsoon, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105(3-4), 505-520.
2. Ashfaq, M., Y. Shi, W.-w. Tung, R. J. Trapp, X. Gao, J. S. Pal, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2009), Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01704, doi:10.1029/2008GL036500.
3. Bajracharya, S. R., P. K. Mool, and B. R. Shrestha (2006), The impact of global warming on the glaciers of the Himalaya, International Symposium on Geo-Disasters, Infrastructure Management and Protection of World Heritage Sites, Nepal Engineering College, Ehime University and National Society for Earthquake Technology Nepal, pp. 231-242.
4. Bukovsky, M. S., D. J. Gochis, and L. O. Mearns (2013), Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climatemodel credibility for the North American Monsoon:Current climate simulations, J. Clim., 26, 8802-8826, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00538.1.
5. Bush, K. F., et al. (2011), Impacts of climate change on public health in India:Future research directions, Environ. Health Perspect., 119(6), 765-770, doi:10.1289/ehp.1003000.
6. Cai, W., A. Sullivan, and T. Cowan (2009), Rainfall teleconnections with Indo-Pacific variability in the WCRP CMIP3 models, J. Clim., 22, 5046-5071, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2694.1.
7. Christensen, J. H., T. R. Carter,M. Rummukainen, and G. Amanatidis (2007), Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models:The PRUDENCE project, Clim. Change, 81, 1-6, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6.
8. Christensen, J. H., et al. (2013), Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change, in Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York.
9. Dobler, A., and B. Ahrens (2010), Analysis of the Indian summer monsoon system in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D16101, doi:10.1029/2009JD013497.
10. Dobler, A., and B. Ahrens (2011), Four climate change scenarios for the Indian summer monsoon by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D24104, doi:10.1029/2011JD016329.
11. Duan, K., T. Yao, and L. G. Thompson (2006), Response of monsoon precipitation in the Himalayas to global warming, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19110, doi:10.1029/2006JD007084.
12. Duffy, P., R. Arritt, J. Coquard, W. Gutowski, J. Han, J. Iorio, J. Kim, L.-R. Leung, J. Roads, and E. Zeledon (2006), Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models, J. Clim., 19(6), 873-895.
13. Feng, J., and C. Fu (2006), Inter-comparison of 10-year precipitation simulated by several RCMs for Asia, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 23(4), 531-542, doi:10.1007/s00376-006-0531-2.
14. Feng, J., D.-K. Lee, C. Fu, J. Tang, Y. Sato, H. Kato, J. L. Mcgregor, and K. Mabuchi (2011), Comparison of four ensemble methods combining regional climate simulations over Asia, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 111(1-2), 41-53.
15. Feng, J., Y. Wang, and C. Fu (2013), The common principle component analyses of multi RCMs, Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett., 6, 14-20.
16. Francis, P., and S. Gadgil (2010), Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 119(4), 397-415.
17. Fu, C., S. Wang, Z. Xiong, W. J. Gutowski, D.-K. Lee, J. L. McGregor, Y. Sato, H. Kato, J.-W. Kim, and M.-S. Suh (2005), Regional climate model intercomparison project for Asia, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86(2), 257-266.
18. Gadgil, S., and S. Sajani (1998), Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs, Clim. Dyn., 14(9), 659-689.
19. Gadgil, S., M. Rajeevan, and R. Nanjundiah (2005), Monsoon prediction-Why yet another failure?, Curr. Sci., 88(9), 1389-1400.
20. Gao, X., Y. Shi, R. Song, F. Giorgi, Y. Wang, and D. Zhang (2008), Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China:Comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 100(1-4), 73-86.
21. Gao, X., Y. Shi, D. Zhang, J. Wu, F. Giorgi, Z. Ji, and Y. Wang (2012), Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China:Results from two high-resolution RCM simulations, Clim. Res., 52, 213-226.
22. Giorgi, F., and P. Lionello (2008), Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global Planet. Change, 63(2), 90-104.
23. Giorgi, F., C. Jones, and G. Asrar (2009), Addressing climate information needs at the regional level:The cordex framework, WMO Bull., 58, 175-183.
24. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2000), Special Report on Emission Scenarios, edited by N. Nakicenovic et al., 599 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
25. Joseph, P. V., K. P. Sooraj, and C. K. Rajan (2006), The summer monsoon onset process over South Asia and an objective method for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala, Int. J. Climatol., 26(13), 1871-1893, doi:10.1002/joc.1340.
26. Kajikawa, Y., T. Yasunari, S. Yoshida, and H. Fujinami (2012), Advanced Asian summer monsoon onset in recent decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L03803, doi:10.1029/2011GL050540.
27. Kitoh, A., and T. Uchiyama (2006), Changes in onset and withdrawal of the East Asian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 84(2), 247-258.
28. Kitoh, A., H. Endo, K. K. Kumar, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, P. Goswami, and T. Zhou (2013), Monsoons in a changing world:A regional perspective in a global context, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 3053-3065, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50258.
29. Kothawale, D. R., and J. R. Kulkarni (2014), Performance of all-India southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall when monthly rainfall reported as deficit/excess, Meteorol. Appl., 21(3), 619-634, doi:10.1002/met.1385.
30. Kottek, M., J. Grieser, C. Beck, B. Rudolf, and F. Rubel (2006), World map of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification updated, Meteorol. Z., 15(3), 259-263, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130.
31. Kripalani, R., J. Oh, A. Kulkarni, S. Sabade, and H. Chaudhari (2007), South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability:Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 90(3-4), 133-159.
32. Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., U. Lall, and H.-H. Kwon (2009), Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003, J. Clim., 22(18), 4737-4746, doi:10.1175/2009jcli2896.1.
33. Krishnamurti, T. N., and Y. Ramanathan (1982), Sensitivity of the monsoon onset to differential heating, J. Atmos. Sci., 39(6), 1290-1306, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<1290:sotmot>2.0.co;2.
34. Krishnamurti, T. N., P. Ardanuy, Y. Ramanathan, and R. Pasch (1981), On the onset vortex of the summer monsoon, Mon. Weather Rev., 109(2), 344-363, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0344:otovot>2.0.co;2.
35. Kumar, K. R., G. B. Pant, B. Parthasarathy, and N. A. Sontakke (1992), Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 12(3), 257-268, doi:10.1002/joc.3370120303.
36. Kumar, M. R. R., and U. R. P. Dessai (2004), A new criterion for identifying breaks in monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18201, doi:10.1029/2004GL020562.
37. Kumar, P., et al. (2013), Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Sci. Total Environ., 468, S18-S30, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.051.
38. Lee, J.-Y., and B. Wang (2014), Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5, Clim. Dyn., 42(1-2), 101-119, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0.
39. Li, B., and T. J. Zhou (2010), Projected climate change over China under SRES A1B scenario:Multi-model ensemble and uncertainties [in Chinese], Adv. Clim. Change Res., 6(4), 270-276.
40. Liang, X. Z., L. Li, A. Dai, and K. E. Kunkel (2004b), Regional climate model simulation of summer precipitation diurnal cycle over the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24208, doi:10.1029/2004GL021054.
41. Liang, X.-Z., L. Li, K. E. Kunkel, M. Ting, and J. X. Wang (2004a), Regional climate model simulation of U.S. precipitation during 1982-2002. Part I:Annual cycle, J. Clim., 17(18), 3510-3529.
42. Liu, X., Z. Cheng, L. Yan, and Z.-Y. Yin (2009), Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, Global Planet. Change, 68(3), 164-174, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.017.
43. Lucas-Picher, P., J. H. Christensen, F. Saeed, P. Kumar, S. Asharaf, B. Ahrens, A. J. Wiltshire, D. Jacob, and S. Hagemann (2011), Can regional climate models rthe Indian monsoon?, J. Hydrometeorol., 12(5), 849-868, doi:10.1175/2011jhm1327.1.
44. Madhura, R. K., R. Krishnan, J. V. Revadeka, M. Mujumdar, and B. N. Goswami (2014), Changes in western disturbance over the Western Himalayas in a warming environment, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2166-9.
45. McGregor, J. L. (1996), Semi-Lagrangian advection on conformal-cubic grids, Mon. Weather Rev., 124(6), 1311-1322.
46. McGregor, J., J. Katzfey, and K. Nguyen (1998), Fine resolution simulations of climate change for Southeast Asia, Final report for a Research Project commissioned by Southeast Asian Regional Committee for START (SARCS), Aspendale, Vic, Aspendale, Vic.:CSIRO Atmospheric Research Vi, 15, 35.
47. Mearns, L., W. Gutowski, R. Jones, R. Leung, S. Mcginis, A. Nunes, and Y. Qian (2009), A regional climate change assessment program for North America, Eos. Trans. AGU, 90(36), 311-312, doi:10.1029/2009EO360002.
48. Menon, A., A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler (2013), Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models, Earth Syst. Dyn., 4(2), 287-300, doi:10.5194/esd-4-287-2013.
49. Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones (2005), An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25(6), 693-712, doi:10.1002/joc.1181.
50. Onogi, K., H. Koide, M. Sakamoto, S. Kobayashi, J. Tsutsui, H. Hatsushika, T. Matsumoto, N. Yamazaki, H. Kamahori, and K. Takahashi (2005), JRA-25:Japanese 25-year re-analysis project-Progress and status, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131(613), 3259-3268.
51. Pai, D. S., L. Sridhar, M. Rajeevan, O. P. Sreejith, N. S. Satbhai, and B. Mukhopadhyay (2014), Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25 degrees × 0.25 degrees) long period (1901-2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region, Mausam, 65(1), 1-18.
52. Parthasarathy, B., K. R. Kumar, and D. R. Kothawale (1992), Indian summer monsoon rainfall index:1871-1990, Meteorol. Mag., 121(1441), 174-186.
53. Parthasarathy, B., A. A. Munot, and D. R. Kothawale (1994), All-Indian monthly and seasonal rainfall series:1871-1993, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 49(4), 217-224, doi:10.1007/bf00867461.
54. Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, and A. K. Jaswal (2008), Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035143.
55. Rajeevan, M., S. Gadgil, and J. Bhate (2010), Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 119(3), 229-247, doi:10.1007/s12040-010-0019-4.
56. Rupa Kumar, K., A. Sahai, K. Krishna Kumar, S. Patwardhan, P. Mishra, J. Revadekar, K. Kamala, and G. Pant (2006), High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century, Curr. Sci., 90(3), 334-345.
57. Sabade, S., A. Kulkarni, and R. Kripalani (2011), Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 103(3-4), 543-565.
58. Sharmila, S., S. Joseph, A. K. Sahai, S. Abhilash, and R. Chattopadhyay (2014), Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario:An assessment from CMIP5 climate models, Global Planet. Change, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.004.
59. Shashikanth, K., K. Salvi, S. Ghosh, and K. Rajendran (2014), Do CMIP5 simulations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall differ from those of CMIP3?, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 15(2), 79-85, doi:10.1002/asl2.466.
60. Simmons, A. J., D. M. Burridge, M. Jarraud, C. Girard, and W. Wergen (1989), The ECMWF medium-range prediction models:Development of the numerical formulations and the impact of increased resolution, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 40, 28-60.
61. Sperber, K. R., H. Annamalai, I.-S. Kang, A. Kitoh, A. Moise, A. Turner, B. Wang, and T. Zhou (2013), The Asian summer monsoon:An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century, Clim. Dyn., 41(9-10), 2711-2744.
62. Stowasser, M., H. Annamalai, and J. Hafner (2009), Response of the South Asian summer monsoon to global warming:Mean and synoptic systems, J. Clim., 22(4), 1014-1036, doi:10.1175/2008jcli2218.1.
63. Syed, F. S., W. Iqbal, A. A. B. Syed, and G. Rasul (2014), Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change, Clim. Dyn., 42(7-8), 2079-2097, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1963-x.
64. Tanaka, M. (1992), Intraseasonal oscillation and the onset and retreat dates of the summer monsoon over east, southeast Asia and the western Pacific region using GMS high cloud amount data, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 70(1B), 613-629.
65. Taylor, K. E. (2001), Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183-7192, doi:10.1029/2000JD900719.
66. Turner, A. G., and J. M. Slingo (2009), Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 10(3), 152-158.
67. van der Linden, P., and J. F. B. Mitchell (2009), ENSEMBLES:Climate change and its impacts:Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, 160 pp., Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, U. K.
68. Wang, B., and LinHo (2002), Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon, J. Clim., 15(4), 386-398, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 015<0386:rsotap>2.0.co;2.
69. Watanabe, T., and K. Yamazaki (2014), Decadal-scale variation of South Asian summer monsoon onset and its relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, J. Clim., 27(13), 5163-5173, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00541.1.
70. Xiong, Z., S. Y. Wang, Z. M. Zeng, and C. B. Fu (2003), Analysis of simulated heavy rain over the Yangtze River Valley during 11-30 June 1998 using RIEMS, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20(5), 815-824.
71. Yatagai, A., O. Arakawa, K. Kamiguchi, H. Kawamoto, M. I. Nodzu, and A. Hamada (2009), A 44-year daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges, SOLA, 5, 137-140, doi:10.2151/sola.2009-03.
72. Zeng, X. B., and E. Lu (2004), Globally unified monsoon onset and retreat indexes, J. Clim., 17(11), 2241-2248, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004) 017<2241:gumoar>2.0.co;2.