Rising heat wave trends in large US cities

Natural Hazards

Volumn 76, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 1651-1665

  Habeeb, Dana ^a   Vargo, Jason ^b   Stone, Brian ^a  

^a GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Extreme heat events; Health effects; Heat waves

Indexed keywords

EID: 84925491712     PISSN: 0921030X     EISSN: 15730840     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1563-z     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. 2. Clim Change 94:275–286
2. Altalo M, Hale M (2004) Turning weather forecasts into business forecasts. Environ Financ May:20–21
3. Anderson B, Bell M (2009) Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 20:205–213. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e318190ee08
4. Anderson B, Bell M (2011) Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 US communities. Environ Health Perspect 119:210–218. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002313
5. Basara JB, Basara HG, Illston BG, Crawford KC (2010) The impact of the urban heat island during an intense heat wave in Oklahoma City. Adv Meteorol 2010:10. doi:10.1155/2010/230365
6. Bell ML, Goldberg R, Hogrefe C, Kinney PL, Knowlton K, Lynn B, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Patz JA (2007) Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities. Clim Change 82:61–76
7. Bernard SM, McGeehin MA (2004) Municipal heat wave response plans. Am J Public Health 94:1520–1522
8. Bouchama A, Dehbi M, Mohamed G, Matthies F, Shoukri M, Menne B (2007) Prognostic factors in heat wave related-deaths: a meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med 167:2170–2176
9. CCSP (2008) Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate. Regions of focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands., Department of Commerce, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Washington, DC, USA
10. CDC (2004) Extreme heat: a prevention guide to promote your personal health and safety. http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/heat_guide.asp
11. CDC (2006) Heat-related deaths—United States, 1999–2003. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 55:796–798
12. Conti S, Meli P, Minelli G, Solimini R, Toccaceli V, Vichi M, Beltrano C, Perini L (2005) Epidemiologic study of mortality during the Summer 2003 heat wave in Italy. Environ Res 98:390–399. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2004.10.009
13. Cooter EJ, LeDuc SK (1995) Recent frost date trends in the North-Eastern USA. Int J Climatol 15:65–75
14. Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, Zeger SL, Strug L, Patz JA (2002) Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol 155:80–87
15. Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ (2003) Decadal changes in summer mortality in US cities. Int J Biometeorol 47:166–175
16. DeGaetano AT (1996) Recent trends in maximum and minimum temperature threshold exceedences in the northeastern United States. J Clim 9:1646–1660
17. Della-Marta P, Haylock M, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2007) Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. J Geophys Res 112:11. doi:10.1029/2007JD008510
18. Easterling DR (2002) Recent changes in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1327–1332
19. Fall S, Niyogi D, Gluhovsky A, Pielke RA, Kalnay E, Rochon G (2010) Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis. Int J Climatol 30:1980–1993. doi:10.1002/joc.1996
20. Flynn A, McGreevy C, Mulkerrin E (2005) Why do older patients die in a heatwave? Q J Med 98:227–229. doi:10.1093/qjmed/hci025
21. Gaffen DJ, Ross RJ (1998) Increased summertime heat stress in the US. Nature 396:529–530
22. Greene S, Kalkstein LS, Mills DM, Samenow J (2011) An examination of climate change on extreme heat events and climate-mortality relationships in large U.S. cities. Weather Clim Soc 3:281–292. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00055.1
23. Hajat S, Kovats RS, Atkinson RW, Haines A (2002) Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: a time series approach. J Epidemiol Community Health 56:367–372
24. Hale RC, Gallo KP, Owen TW, Loveland TR (2006) Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate normals stations. Geophys Res Lett 33:L11703. doi:10.1029/2006GL026358
25. Hayhoe K, Sheridan S, Kalkstein L, Greene S (2010) Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. J Great Lakes Res 36:65–73
26. IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA
27. Jacobsen LA, Kent M, Lee M, Mather M (2011) America’s aging population. Popul Bull 66:1–16
28. Kalkstein LS, Davis RE (1989) Weather and human mortality: an evaluation of demographic and interregional responses in the United States. Ann As Am Geogr 79:44–64
29. Kalkstein LS, Greene JS (1997) An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large US cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ Health Perspect 105:84–93
30. Kalnay E, Cai M (2003) Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 423:528–531
31. Kalnay E, Cai M, Li H, Tobin J (2006) Estimation of the impact of land-surface forcings on temperature trends in eastern United States. J Geophys Res 111:D06106. doi:10.1029/2005JD006555
32. Koppe C, Kovats S, Jendritzky G, Menne B (2004) Heat-waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization, Geneva
33. Kovats RS, Hajat S (2008) Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health 29:41–55. doi:10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843
34. Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Della-Marta PM, Zerefos CS, Turkes M, Luterbacher J (2010) Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960. Geophys Res Lett 37:L04802. doi:10.1029/2009GL041841
35. Laaidi K, Zeghnoun A, Dousset B, Bretin P, Vandentorren S, Giraudet E, Beaudeau P (2012) The impact of heat islands on mortality in Paris during the August 2003 heat wave. Environ Health Perspect 120:254–259
36. Lynn BH, Carlson TN, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Druyan L, Cox J, Gaffin S, Parshall L, Civerolo K (2009) A modification to the NOAH LSM to simulate heat mitigation strategies in the New York City metropolitan area. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 48:199–216. doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1774.1
37. McCarthy MP, Best MJ, Betts RA (2010) Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects. Geophys Res Lett 37:L09705. doi:10.1029/2010GL042845
38. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305:994–997. doi:10.1126/science.1098704
39. Miller NL, Hayhoe K, Jin J, Auffhammer M (2009) Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:1834–1844. doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1480.1
40. Naughton MP, Henderson A, Mirabelli MC, Kaiser R, Wilhelm JL, Kieszak SM, Rubin CH, McGeehin MA (2002) Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago. Am J Prev Med 22:221–227
41. NWS (2011) Natural hazard statistics
42. Oke TR (1987) Boundary layer climates. Routledge, New York
43. Oleson K, Bonan G, Feddema J (2010) Effects of white roofs on urban temperature in a global climate model. Geophys Res Lett 37:L03701. doi:10.1029/2009GL042194
44. Oven K, Curtis S, Reaney S, Riva M, Stewart M, Ohlemuller R, Dunn C, Nodwell S, Dominelli L, Holden R (2012) Climate change and health and social care: defining future hazard, vulnerability and risk for infrastructure systems supporting older people’s health care in England. Appl Geogr 33:16–24
45. Palecki MA, Changnon SA, Kunkel KE (2001) The nature and impacts of the July 1999 heat wave in the midwestern United States: learning from the lessons of 1995. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:1353–1367
46. Peng RD, Bobb JF, Tebaldi C, McDaniel L, Bell ML, Dominici F (2011) Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change. Environ Health Perspect 119:701–706. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002430
47. Revich B, Shaposhnikov D (2012) Climate change, heat waves, and cold spells as risk factors for increased mortality in some regions of Russia. Stud Russ Econ Dev 23:195–207. doi:10.1134/S1075700712020116
48. Robine JM, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biol 331:171–178. doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001
49. Robinson PJ (2001) On the definition of a heat wave. J Appl Meteorol 40:762–775
50. Rosenzweig C, Solecki WD, Parshall L, Chopping M, Pope G, Goldberg R (2005) Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey. Glob Environ Change B Environ Hazards 6:51–62
51. Rosenzweig C, Solecki W, Slosberg R (2006) Mitigating New York City’s heat island with urban forestry, living roofs, and light surfaces. New York state energy research and development authority report, p 123
52. Sheridan SC (2007) A survey of public perception and response to heat warnings across four North American cities: an evaluation of municipal effectiveness. Int J Biometeorol 52:3–15
53. Smoyer-Tomic KE, Kuhn R, Hudson A (2003) Heat wave hazards: an overview of heat wave impacts in Canada. Nat Hazards 28:463–485
54. Steadman RG (1984) A universal scale of apparent temperature. J Climate Appl Meteorol 23:1674–1687
55. Stone B, Jr (2007) Urban and rural temperature trends in proximity to large US cities: 1951–2000. Int J Climatol 27:1801–1807. doi:10.1002/joc.1555
56. Stone B, Jr (2008) Urban sprawl and air quality in large US cities. J Environ Manag 86:688–698
57. Stone B, Hess JJ, Frumkin H (2010) Urban form and extreme heat events: are sprawling cities more vulnerable to climate change than compact cities? Environ Health Perspectives 118:1425–1428
58. Stone B, Vargo J, Habeeb D (2012) Managing climate change in cities: will climate action plans work? Landsc Urban Plan 107:263–271
59. Tan J, Zheng Y, Tang X, Guo C, Li L, Song G, Zhen X, Yuan D, Kalkstein AJ, Li F, Chen H (2010) The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai. Int J Biometeorol 54:75–84. doi:10.1007/s00484-009-0256-x
60. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA (2006) Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Change 79:185–211. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4
61. UN DESA (2008) World urbanization prospects: the 2007 revision. Dep of Economic and Social Affairs UN, United Nations, New York
62. Wainwright SH, Buchanan SD, Mainzer HM, Parrish RG, Sinks TH (1999) Cardiovascular mortality–the hidden peril of heat waves. Prehosp Disaster Med 14:222–231. doi:10.1017/S1049023X00027679
63. Zhou Y, Shepherd JM (2010) Atlanta’s urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies. Nat Hazards 52:639–668. doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9406-z
64. Zhou L, Dickinson RE, Tian Y, Fang J, Li Q, Kaufmann RK, Tucker CJ, Myneni RB (2004) Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:9540–9544. doi:10.1073/pnas.0400357101