Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

Climatic Change

Volumn 128, Issue 3-4, 2015, Pages 169-186

  Dubrovsky, Martin ^a,b,d   Trnka, Miroslav ^b,d   Holman, Ian P ^c   Svobodova, Eva ^b,d   Harrison, Paula A ^e  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (Czech Republic)

^b MENDEL UNIVERSITY IN BRNO   (Czech Republic)

^c CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^d CzechGlobe Global Change Research Centre AS CR vvi   (Czech Republic)

^e UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; SET THEORY; SNOW;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCHES; EUROPEAN CORN BORERS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT PLATFORMS; OBJECTIVE CRITERIA; PALMER DROUGHT INDEX;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84925463168     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1297-7     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Bishop CH, Abramowitz G (2012) Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm. Climate Dynam 41:885–900
2. Dubrovsky M, Nemesova I, Kalvova J (2005) Uncertainties in climate change scenarios for the Czech Republic. Clim Res 29:139–156
3. Dubrovsky M, Svoboda MD, Trnka M, Hayes MJ, Wilhite DA, Zalud Z, Hlavinka P (2009) Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia. Theor Appl Climatol 96:155–171
4. Evans JP, Ji F, Lee C, Smith P, Argüeso D, Fita L (2014) Design of a regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment – NARCliM. Geosci Model Dev 7:621–629
5. Fronzek S, Carter TR, Jylhä K (2012) Representing two centuries of past and future climate for assessing risks to biodiversity in Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 21:19–35
6. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res 113(D6):D06104. doi:10.1029/2007JD008972
7. Harrison PA, Holman IP, Cojocaru G, Kok K, Kontogianni A, Metzger MJ, Gramberger M (2013) Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Reg Environ Chang 13:761–780
8. Harrison PA, Holman IP, Berry PM (2014) Assessing cross-sectoral climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation: an introduction to the CLIMSAVE project. Clim Chang (this issue)
9. Harvey LDD, Gregory J, Hoffert M, Jain A et al (1997) An introduction to simple climate models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. IPCC Tech paper 2, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva
10. Hoddle MS (2003) The potential adventive geographic range of glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca coagulata and the grape pathogen Xylella fastidiosa: implications for California and other grape growing regions of the world. Crop Prot 23:691–699
11. Holman IP, Allen DM, Cuthbert MO, Goderniaux P (2012) Towards best practice for assessing the impacts of climate change on groundwater. Hydrogeol J 20:1–4
12. Holman IP, Harrison PA, Metzger MJ (2014) Cross-sectoral impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland: implications for adaptation policy. Reg Environ Chang. doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0679-8
13. Hulme M, Wigley TML, Barrow EM, Raper SCB, Centella A, Smith S, Chipanshi AC (2000) Using a climate scenario generator for vulnerability and adaptation assessments: MAGICC and SCENGEN Version 2.4 Workbook. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, UK
14. Iglesias A, Quiroga S, Schlickenrieder J (2010) Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain. Clim Res 44:83–94
15. IPCC (2007) The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/. Accessed November 2014
16. IPCC (2013) The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/. Accessed November 2014
17. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394
18. Mitchell TD (2003) Pattern scaling: an examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Clim Chang 60:217–242
19. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712
20. New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25
21. Rietveld MR (1978) A new method for estimating the regression coefficients in the formula relating solar radiation to sunshine. Agric Meteorol 19:243–252
22. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Schlesinger ME, Mitchell JFB (1990) Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results. Report no. 47, Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
23. Semenov M, Stratonovitch P (2010) Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Clim Res 41:1–14
24. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498
25. Trnka M, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z (2004) Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in spring barley production in the Czech Republic. Clim Chang 64:227–255
26. Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. J Clim 17:2335–2351