Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities

PLoS ONE

Volumn 10, Issue 2, 2015, Pages

  Prime, Thomas ^a,b   Brown, Jennifer M ^b   Plater, Andrew J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^b NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; ECONOMIC ASPECT; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; FLOODING; METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA; PROBABILITY; RIVER FLOW; SEA LEVEL RISE; SEASHORE; STORM SURGE; UNITED KINGDOM; WAVE OVERTOPPING; DISASTER; ECONOMICS; RISK ASSESSMENT; THEORETICAL MODEL; TSUNAMI;

DISASTERS; ENGLAND; FLOODS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; TIDAL WAVES;

EID: 84923349583     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117030     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M, Pennekamp HA (1993) A global vulnerability analysis: vulnerability assessment for population, coastal wetlands and rice production on a global scale. Delft Hydraulics, the Netherlands. PMID: 25521004
2. Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Glob Environ Change 9, Supplement 1: S69-S87. doi: 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00019-9
3. Kates RW, Colten CE, Laska S, Leatherman SP (2006) Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103: 14653-14660. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0605726103 PMID: 17003119
4. Galarneau TJ, Davis CA, Shapiro MA (2013) Intensification of Hurricane Sandy (2012) through Extratropical Warm Core Seclusion. Mon Weather Rev 141: 4296-4321. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00181.1
5. Gerritsen H (2005) What happened in 1953? The Big Flood in the Netherlands in retrospect. Philos Trans R Soc Math Phys Eng Sci 363: 1271-1291. PMID: 16191650
6. Baxter PJ (2005) The east coast Big Flood, 31 January-1 February 1953: a summary of the human disaster. Philos Trans R Soc Math Phys Eng Sci 363: 1293-1312. PMID: 16191651
7. Wolf J, Flather RA (2005) Modelling waves and surges during the 1953 storm. Philos Trans R Soc Math Phys Eng Sci 363: 1359-1375. PMID: 16191654
8. Jonkman SN, Kelman I (2005) Deaths during the 1953 North Sea storm surge. Proceedings of the Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference, American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE), Charleston, South Carolina. pp. 8-11. Available: http://www.rigsystems.co.uk/members/content/documents/1cd05-6547a.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2014.
9. Steers JA, Stoddart DR, Bayliss-Smith TP, Spencer T, Durbidge PM (1979) The storm surge of 11 January 1978 on the east coast of England. Geogr J: 192-205.
10. DEFRA (2012) The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Evidence Report: 488. doi: 9780108511257.
11. HM Government (2013) The National Adaptation Programme: Making the Country Resilient to a Changing Climate. HM Government.
12. Association of British Insurers Press Release 2014 Flood in Numbers. Available: https://www.abi.org.uk/Insurance-and-savings/Topics-and-issues/Flooding/2014-floods-in-numbers. Accessed 1 April 2014.
13. Hall JW, Sayers PB, Walkden MJ, Panzeri M (2006) Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100. Philos Trans R Soc Math Phys Eng Sci 364: 1027-1049.
14. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, et al. (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Intergov Panel Clim Change Work Group Contrib IPCC Fifth Assess Rep AR5 Cambridge Univ Press N Y. Available: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5-Frontmatter-FINAL.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2014.
15. Lowe J, Howard T, Pardaens A, Tinker J, Holt J, et al. (2009) UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections. Available: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/9734/. Accessed 20 June 2014.
16. Jevrejeva S, Moore JC, Grinsted A (2012) Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios. Glob Planet Change 80: 14-20.
17. Nicholls RJ, Marinova N, Lowe JA, Brown S, Vellinga P, et al. (2011) Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a "beyond 4° C world" in the twenty-first century. Philos Trans R Soc Math Phys Eng Sci 369: 161-181. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0291 PMID: 21115518
18. McInnes KL, Walsh KJE, Hubbert GD, Beer T (2003) Impact of sea-level rise and storm surges on a coastal community. Nat Hazards 30: 187-207.
19. Lowe JA, Gregory JM, Flather RA (2001) Changes in the occurrence of storm surges around the United Kingdom under a future climate scenario using a dynamic storm surge model driven by the Hadley Centre climate models. Clim Dyn 18: 179-188.
20. McMillan A, Batstone C, Worth D, Tawn J, Horsburgh K, et al. (2011) Coastal flood boundary conditions for UK mainland and islands. Project SC060064/TR2: Design sea levels. Available: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/19721. Accessed 20 June 2014.
21. Chini N, Stansby P, Leake J, Wolf J, Roberts-Jones J, et al. (2010) The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK). Coast Eng 57: 973-984.
22. Buijs F, Britain G, Britain G (2007) Performance and reliability of flood and coastal defences. DEFRA. Available: http://www.pevenseybay.org.uk/Pages/SussexTowns/Seaford/Plan/TR2%20defra.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2014.
23. Lowe J, Howard T, Pardaens A, Tinker J, Holt J, et al. (2009) UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections. Available: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/9734/. Accessed 20 June 2014.
24. Gallien TW, Sanders BF, Flick RE (2014) Urban coastal flood prediction: Integrating wave overtopping, flood defenses and drainage. Coast Eng 91: 18-28. doi: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.04.007
25. Maskell J, Horsburgh K, Lewis M, Bates P (2013) Investigating River-Surge Interaction in Idealised Estuaries. J Coast Res 30: 248-259.
26. Chini N, Stansby PK (2012) Extreme values of coastal wave overtopping accounting for climate change and sea level rise. Coast Eng 65: 27-37.
27. Bates PD, De Roo APJ (2000) A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation. J Hydrol 236: 54-77.
28. Gilles D, Moore M (2010) Review of Hydraulic Flood Modeling Software used in Belgium, The Netherlands, and The United Kingdom. Int Perspect Water Resour Manag. Available: http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/education1/international/UK/projects-files/ipwrsm-paper-gilles-moore-Dan-editted.pdf. Accessed 8 August 2014.
29. Smith RA, Bates PD, Hayes C (2012) Evaluation of a coastal flood inundation model using hard and soft data. Environ Model Softw 30: 35-46.
30. Bates PD, Horritt MS, Fewtrell TJ (2010) A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling. J Hydrol 387: 33-45.
31. Green C (2014) Rossall Sea Defences Wyre Council. Available: http://districtcouncils.info/files/2014/06/Wyre-Rossall-Sea-Defences.pdf. Accessed 24 September 2014.
32. Zong Y, Tooley MJ (2003) A Historical Record of Coastal Floods in Britain: Frequencies and Associated Storm Tracks. Nat Hazards 29: 13-36. doi: 10.1023/A:1022942801531
33. Wadey MP, Haigh ID, Brown JM (2014) A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record. Ocean Sci Discuss 11: 1995-2028. doi: 10.5194/osd-11-1995-2014
34. CEFAS Wavenet (2014) Blackpool Wave Data. Available: http://www.cefas.defra.gov.uk/our-science/observing-and-modelling/monitoring-programmes/wavenet.aspx. Accessed 14 January 2014.\
35. Leake J, Wolf J, Lowe J, Hall J, Nicholls R (2009) Response of marine climate to future climate change: application to coastal regions. Available: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/8090/. Accessed 20 June 2014.
36. Environment Agency (2013) Northwest UK Coast Defence Data.
37. McCabe MV, Stansby PK, Apsley DD (2013) Random wave runup and overtopping a steep sea wall: Shallow-water and Boussinesq modelling with generalised breaking and wall impact algorithms validated against laboratory and field measurements. Coast Eng 74: 33-49.
38. Environment Agency Geomatics (2014) LiDAR dataset. Available: https://www.geomatics-group.co.uk/GeoCMS/Order.aspx. Accessed 10 June 2013.
39. Environment Agency Northwest Office (2013) River Wyre Hydrograph. Available: NWInfoRequests@environment-agency.gov.uk. Accessed 19 November 2013.
40. Environment Agency (2009) Peaks Over Threshold CSV Data Files. Available: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20091017175719/http://environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/POT-csv-files.zip. Accessed 1 May 2013.
41. Quinn N, Bates PD, Siddall M (2013) The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss. J Geophys Res Oceans 118: 5887-5898.
42. Wadey MP, Nicholls RJ, Hutton C (2012) Coastal Flooding in the Solent: An Integrated Analysis of Defences and Inundation. Water 4: 430-459. doi: 10.3390/w4020430
43. Dawson RJ, Hall JW, Bates PD, Nicholls RJ (2005) Quantified Analysis of the Probability of Flooding in the Thames Estuary under Imaginable Worst-case Sea Level Rise Scenarios. Int J Water Resour Dev 21: 577-591. doi: 10.1080/07900620500258380
44. Bates PD, Dawson RJ, Hall JW, Horritt MS, Nicholls RJ, et al. (2005) Simplified two-dimensional numerical modelling of coastal flooding and example applications. Coast Eng 52: 793-810.
45. th ed. Routledge. doi: 10.3390/jpm3040288 PMID: 25566432
46. Land Cover Dataset 2007 (2007) Available: http://digimap.edina.ac.uk/digimap/home. Accessed 1 April 2014.
47. Ordnance Survey (2013) Ordnance Survey Topography data. Available: http://digimap.edina.ac.uk/digimap/home. Accessed 19 November 2013.
48. Pietruszczak S, Niu X (1992) A mathematical description of macroscopic behaviour of brick masonry. Int J Solids Struct 29: 531-546.
49. Halcrow Group Ltd (2010) North West & North Wales Coastal Group North West England and North Wales Shoreline Management Plan SMP2.
50. Bowker P (2007) Flood resistance and resilience solutions: an R&D scoping study. R&D Technical Report. Available: http://www.basqueecodesigncenter.net/Documentos/Noticias/7DC62BE4-A679-43C3-B269-C879FF55EB0F/FLOOD%20RD.PDF. Accessed 20 June 2014.
51. Bowker P, Escarameia M, Tagg A, Britain G, Britain G, et al. (2007) Improving the flood performance of new buildings: Flood resilient construction. RIBA.
52. Wade S, Wallingford HUHR (2008) SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE ON FLOOD HAZARD RATINGS AND THRESHOLDS: 1-5.
53. Miniscale Map of the UK (n.d.). Available: http://digimap.edina.ac.uk. Accessed 23 September 2014.
54. Purvis MJ, Bates PD, Hayes CM (2008) A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise. Coast Eng 55: 1062-1073.
55. Burke RW, Stolzenbach KD (1983) Free surface flow through salt marsh grass. Massachusetts Institute of Technology.