Extending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe

Nature Communications

Volumn 5, Issue , 2014, Pages

  Lavers, David A ^a,c   Pappenberger, Florian ^a,b   Zsoter, Ervin ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^c Scripps Institution of Oceanography   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EXTREME EVENT; FLOODING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; WATER VAPOR; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ARTICLE; EUROPE; HYDROLOGY; PRECIPITATION; PREDICTION AND FORECASTING; WATER VAPOR; WINTER;

EUROPE;

EID: 84923312170     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6382     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Penning-Rowsell, E. C. A realistic assessment of fluvial and coastal flood risk in England and Wales. T. I. Brit. Geogr. doi:10.1111/tran.12053 (2014).
2. Wheater, H. S. Flood hazard and management: a UK perspective. Philos. T. R. Soc. A 364, 2135-2145 1471-2962 (2006).
3. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 19, 5686-5699 (2006).
4. Allan, R. P. & Soden, B. J. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321, 1481-1484 (2008).
5. O'Gorman, P. A. & Schneider, T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 14773-14777 (2009).
6. Lavers, D. A. et al. Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L23803 (2011).
7. Lavers, D. A., Villarini, G., Allan, R. P., Wood, E. F. & Wade, A. J. The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D20106 (2012).
8. Lavers, D. A. & Villarini, G. The nexus between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation across Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3259-3264 (2013).
9. Neiman, P. J., Ralph, F. M., Wick, G. A., Lundquist, J. D. & Dettinger, M. D. Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations. J. Hydrometeorol. 9, 22-47 (2008).
10. Ralph, F. M. & Dettinger, M. D. Storms, floods, and the science of atmospheric rivers. Eos Trans. AGU 92, 265 (2011).
11. Jung, T. & Leutbecher, M. Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 134, 973-984 (2008).
12. Ralph, F. M., Coleman, T., Neiman, P. J., Zamora, R. & Dettinger, M. D. Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in coastal northern California. J. Hydrometeorol. 14, 443-459 (2013).
13. Hallegatte, S. A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries: hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation. Policy Research Working Paper 6058 (The World Bank, 2012).
14. Leutbecher, M. & Palmer, T. N. Ensemble forecasting. J. Comput. Phys. 227, 3515-3539 (2008).
15. Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Wetterhall, F. & Pappenberger, F. Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 2359-2373 (2013).
16. Pappenberger, F. et al. in Proceedings of H01, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly (IAHS Publication, Gothenburg, Sweden, 359, 2013).
17. Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Ramos, M.-H. & de Roo, A. The European Flood Alert System - Part 1: Concept and development. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 125-140 (2009).
18. Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H. & Gentilini, S. The European flood alert system EFAS - Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 141-153 (2009).
19. Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J. & del Medico, M. The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System. Hydrol. Process. 25, 1091-1113 (2011).
20. Luo, L. & Wood, E. F. Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L04708 (2006).
21. Kumar, A., Peng, P. & Chen, M. Is there a relationship between potential and actual skill? Mon. Weather Rev. 142, 2220-2227 (2014).
22. Banacos, P. C. & Schultz, D. M. The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: historical and operational perspectives. Weather Forecast. 20, 351-366 (2005).
23. Zsoter, E. Recent developments in extreme weather forecasting. ECMWF Newsletter 107, 8-17 (2006).
24. Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F. & Richardson, D. Sensitivity of model climate to sampling configurations and the impact on the Extreme Forecast Index. Meteorol. Appl. doi:10.1002/met.1447 (2014).
25. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 137, 553-597 (2011).