Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming

Journal of Geophysical Research

Volumn 119, Issue 13, 2014, Pages 7833-7841

  Mishra, Anoop ^a   Liu, Shaw Chen ^a,b  

^a RESEARCH CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES   (Taiwan)

^b NATIONAL CENTRAL UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DROUGHT; FLOODING; GLOBAL WARMING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; REGIONAL CLIMATE;

INDIA;

EID: 84922501033     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: 21562202     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021471     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Bansod, S. D., H. N. Singh, S. D. Patil, and N. Singh (2012), Recent changes in the circulation parameters and their association with Indian summer monsoon rainfall, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 77, 248–253.
2. Bhalme, H. N., and D. A. Mooley (1979), On the performance of modified Palmer index, Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl. Ser. B, 27, 281–295.
3. Bhalme, H. N., and D. A. Mooley (1980), Large-scale drought/floods and monsoon circulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1197–1211.
4. Dash, S. K., M. A. Kulkarni, U. C. Mohanty, and K. Prasad (2009), Changes in the characteristics of rain events in India, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D10109, doi:10.1029/2008JD010572.
5. Dash, S. K., A. A. Nair, M. A. Kulkarni, and U. C. Mohanty (2011), Characteristic changes in the long and short spells of different rain intensities in India, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 563–570, doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0416-x.
6. De, U. S., R. K. Dube, and G. S. Prakasa Rao (2005), Extreme weather events over India in the last 100 years, J. Indian Geophys. Union, 9(3), 173–187.
7. Francis, P. A., and S. Gadgil (2010), Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 119(4), 397–415.
8. Fujibe, F., N. Yamazaki, M. Katsuyama, and K. Kobayashi (2005), The increasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan based on four-hourly data for a hundred years, Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 1, 41–44, doi:10.2151/sola.2005-012.
9. Gadgil, S., P. N. Vinaychandran, and P. A. Francis (2003), Droughts of the Indian summer monsoon: Role of clouds over Indian Ocean, Curr. Sci., 85(12), 1713–1719.
10. Goswami, B. N., V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S. Madhusoodan, and P. K. Xavier (2006), Increasing trends of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314, 1442–1445, doi:10.1126/science.1132027.
11. Gregory, J. M., J. F. B. Mitchell, and A. J. Brady (1997), Summer drought in northern midlatitudes in a time-dependent CO2 climate experiment, J. Clim., 10, 662–686.
12. Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, G. C. Hegerl, and V. A. N. Razuvaew (2005), Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record, J. Clim., 18, 1326–1350, doi:10.1175/JCLI3339.1.
13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Summary for policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, in Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 1–18, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
14. Keyantash, J., and J. A. Dracup (2002), The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1167–1180.
15. Krishnamurti, T. N., H. S. Bedi, and M. Subramaniam (1989), The summer monsoon of 1987, J. Clim., 2, 321–340.
16. Krishnan, R., C. Zhang, and M. Sugi (2000), Dynamics of breaks in the Indian summer monsoon, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1354–1372.
17. Lau, K. M., and H. T. Wu (2007), Detecting trends in tropical rainfall characteristics, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 979–988.
18. Lau, K. M., and H. T. Wu (2011), Climatology and changes in tropical oceanic rainfall characteristics inferred from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998–2009), J. Geophys. Res., 116, D17111, doi:10.1029/2011JD015827.
19. Lei, Y., and A. Duan (2011), Prolonged dry episodes and drought over China, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1831–1840.
20. Lenderink, G., and E. V. Meijgaard (2008), Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., 1, 511–514, doi:10.1038/ngeo262.
21. Liu, B., M. Xu, M. Henderson, and Q. Ye (2005), Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960–2000, J. Geophys. Res., 110, DO8103, doi:10.1029/2004JD004864.
22. Liu, S. C., C. Fu, C. J. Shiu, J. P. Chen, and F. Wu (2009), Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17702, doi:10.1029/2009GL040218.
23. O’Gorman, P. A. (2012), Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 5, 697–700, doi:10.1038/ngeo1568.
24. Quian, Y., D. Gong, and R. Leung (2010), Light rain events change over North America, Europe, and Asia for 1973–2009, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 301–306.
25. Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, K. D. Kale, and B. Lal (2006), High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells, Curr. Sci., 91, 296–306.
26. Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, and A. K. Jaswal (2008), Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall vents over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035143.
27. Rupa Kumar, K., G. B. Pant, B. Parthasarathy, and N. A. Sontakke (1992), Spatial and subseasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 12, 257–268.
28. Shepard, D. (1968), A two dimensional interpolation function for irregularly spaced data, Proc. 1968 ACM Nat. Conf., 517–524.
29. Shiu, C. J., S. C. Liu, C. Fu, A. Dai, and Y. Sun (2012), How much do precipitation extremes change in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17707, doi:10.1029/2012GLO52762.
30. Sinha, P., U. C. Mohanty, S. C. Kar, and S. Kumari (2013), Role of Himalayan orography in simulation of Indian summer monsoon using RegCM3, Pure Appl. Geophys., doi:10.1007/s00024-013-0675-9.
31. Sinha Ray, K. C., and M. P. Shiwale (2001), Probability of occurrences of drought in various subdivisions of India, Mausam, 52(3), 541–546.
32. Soman, M. K., and K. Krishna Kumar (1990), Some aspects of daily rainfall distribution over India during the south-west monsoon season, Int. J. Climatol., 10, 299–311.
33. Sreekala, P. P., S. V. Bhaskara Rao, M. S. Arunachalam, and C. Harikiran (2013), A study of the decreasing trend in tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-1049-z.
34. Sun, Y., S. Solomon, A. Dai, and R. W. Portmann (2006), How often does it rain?, J. Clim., 19, 916–934, doi:10.1175/JCLI3672.1.
35. Sun, Y., S. Solomon, A. Dai, and R. W. Portmann (2007), How often will it rain?, J. Clim., 20, 4801–4818, doi:10.1175/JCLI4263.1.
36. Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons (2003), The changing character of precipitation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1217, doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205.
37. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., et al. (2012), Performance of drought indices for ecological, agricultural, and hydrological applications, Earth Interact., 16, 1–10, doi:10.1175/2012EI000434.1.
38. Villarini, G., J. A. Smith, and G. A. Vecchi (2013), Changing frequency of heavy rainfall over the Central United States, J. Clim., 26, 351–357.
39. Wang, B. (2006), The Asian Monsoon, 188 pp., Springer, Heidelberg, New York, isbn:978-3-540-40610-5.
40. Wu, L., J. Zhang, and G. Huang (2012), The role of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling in summer light precipitation variability over East Asia, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 13, 296–302, doi:10.1002/asl.398.
41. Yan, Z., and C. Yang (2000), Geographic patterns of climate extremes changes in China during 1951–1997 [in Chinese], Clim. Environ. Res., 5, 267–272.