A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for local land management

Ecological Applications

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 226-242

  Yospin, Gabriel I ^a   Bridgham, Scott D ^b   Neilson, Ronald P ^c   Bolte, John P ^c   Bachelet, Dominique M ^d   Gould, Peter J ^e   Harrington, Constance A ^f   Kertis, Jane A ^g   Evers, Cody ^b   Johnson, Bart R ^b  

^a MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OREGON   (United States)

^c OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d Conservation Biology Institute ^*  (United States)

^e Washington Department of Natural Resources   (United States)

^f PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^g USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

Author keywords

Agent based model; Disturbance; Dynamic global vegetation model; Envision; Fire; MC1; Oregon; State and transition simulation model; Willamette Valley

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; HABITAT AVAILABILITY; LAND MANAGEMENT; LAND USE PLANNING; PARAMETERIZATION; POLICY MAKING; PROBABILITY; SIMULATION; STAND STRUCTURE; SUCCESSION; TREE; VEGETATION TYPE;

OREGON; UNITED STATES; WILLAMETTE VALLEY;

QUERCUS GARRYANA;

CLASSIFICATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEM; FORESTS; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PHYSIOLOGY; TREES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEM; FORESTS; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; MODELS, THEORETICAL; TREES;

EID: 84922061057     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19395582     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/13-0906.1     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Akaike, H. 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19:716-723.
2. 2 fertilization, and climate variability to the Eastern US carbon sink. Global Change Biology 12:2370-2390.
3. Allen, C. D., et al. 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259:660-684.
4. Bachelet, D., B. R. Johnson, S. D. Bridgham, P. V. Dunn, H. E. Anderson, and B. M. Rogers. 2011. Climate change impacts on western Pacific Northwest prairies and savannas. Northwest Science 85:411-429.
5. Bachelet, D., J. M. Lenihan, C. Daly, R. P. Neilson, D. S. Ojima, and W. J. Parton. 2001. MC1: A dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated ecosystem fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and water. General Technical Report. PNW-GTR-508. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA.
6. Bolte, J. P., D. W. Hulse, S. V. Gregory, and C. Smith. 2006. Modeling biocomplexity-actors, landscapes and alternative futures. Environmental Modelling and Software 22:570-579.
7. Bone, C., B. Johnson, M. Nielsen-Pincus, E. Sproles, and J. Bolte. 2013. A temporal variant-invariant validation approach for agent-based models of landscape dynamics. Transactions in GIS 18(2):161-182.
8. Christy, J. A., and E. R. Alverson. 2011. Historical vegetation of the Willamette Valley, Oregon, circa 1850. Northwest Science 85:93-107.
9. Crookston, N. L., and G. E. Dixon. 2005. The forest vegetation simulator: A review of its structure, content, and applications. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 49:60-80.
10. Czembor, C. A., and P. A. Vesk. 2009. Incorporating betweenexpert uncertainty into state-and-transition simulation models for forest restoration. Forest Ecology and Management 259:165-175.
11. Daniel, C. J., and L. Frid. 2012. Predicting landscape vegetation dynamics using state-and-transition simulation models. Pages 5-22 in B. K. Kerns, A. K. Shlisky, C. J. Daniel, editors. Proceedings of the First Landscape Stateand-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14-16, 2011, Portland, Oregon. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-869. USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA.
12. Day, J. W. 2005. Historical savanna structure and succession at Jim's Creek, Willamette National Forest, Oregon. Thesis. University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA.
13. Esri. 2009. ArcGIS v.9.3. Esri, Redlands, California, USA.
14. Farber, S., et al. 2006. Linking ecology and economics for ecosystem management. BioScience 56:121-133.
15. Finney, M. A. 2006. An overview of FlamMap fire modeling capabilities. Pages 213-220 in P. L. Andrews and B. W. Butler, compilers. How to measure success: conference proceedings. Rocky Mountain Research Station Proceedings RMRS P-41. USDA Forest Service, Portland, Oregon, USA.
16. Franklin, J. F., and C. T. Dyrness. 1988. Natural vegetation of Oregon and Washington. Oregon State University Press, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
17. Gavin, D. G., D. J. Hallett, F. S. Hu, K. P. Lertzman, S. J. Prichard, K. J. Brown, J. A. Lynch, P. Bartlein, and D. L. Peterson. 2007. Forest fire and climate change in western North America: insights from sediment charcoal records. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5:499-506.
18. Gordon, H. B., et al. 2002. The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model. CSIRO atmospheric research technical paper no. 60. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia.
19. Gould, P. J., C. A. Harrington, and W. D. Devine. 2011. Growth of Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana). Northwest Science 85:159-171.
20. Guzy, M. R., C. L. Smith, J. P. Bolte, D. W. Hulse, and S. V. Gregory. 2008. Policy research using agent-based modeling to assess future impacts of urban expansion into farmlands and forests. Ecology and Society 13:37.
21. Habeck, J. R. 1961. The original vegetation of the mid-Willamette Valley, Oregon. Northwest Science 35:65-77.
22. Haefner, J. W. 2005. Modeling biological systems: Principles and applications. Second edition. Springer, New York, New York, USA.
23. Hasumi, H., and S. Emori. 2004. K-1 coupled GCM (MIROC) description. Page 34 in K-1 Technical Report. Center for Climate System Research, Tokyo, Japan.
24. Hulse, D. W., S. V. Gregory, and J. Baker. 2002. Willamette River basin planning atlas: Trajectories of environmental and ecological change. Oregon State University Press, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
25. Hurtt, G., P. R. Moorcroft, S. W. Pacala, and S. Levin. 1998. Terrestrial models and global change: challenges for the future. Global Change Biology 4:581-590.
26. Johannessen, C. L., W. A. Davenport, A. Millet, and S. McWilliams. 1971. The Vegetation of the Willamette Valley. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 61:286-302.
27. Johns, T. C., et al. 2003. Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Climate Dynamics 20:583-612.
28. Keane, R. E., G. J. Cary, I. D. Davies, M. D. Flannigan, R. H. Gardner, S. Lavorel, J. M. Lenihan, C. Li, and T. S. Rupp. 2004. A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling 179:3-27.
29. Keane, R. E., G. J. Cary, M. D. Flannigan, R. A. Parsons, I. D. Davies, K. J. King, C. Li, R. A. Bradstock, and M. Gill. 2013. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling. Ecological Modelling 266:172-186.
30. Keane, R. E., K. C. Ryan, and S. W. Running. 1996. Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC. Tree Physiology 16:319-331.
31. Kerns, B. K., M. A. Hemstrom, D. R. Conklin, G. I. Yospin, B. R. Johnson, D. Bachelet, and S. D. Bridgham. 2012. Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation. Pages 161-171 in B. K. Kerns, A. K. Shlisky, and C. J. Daniel, editors. Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14-16, 2011. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-869. USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA.
32. King, D. A., D. M. Bachelet, and A. J. Symstad. 2013. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model. Ecology and Evolution 3:5076-5097.
33. Koca, D., B. Smith, and M. T. Sykes. 2006. Modelling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden. Climatic Change 78:381-406.
34. 2O vapor exchange. Ecological Modelling 196:1-31.
35. Kuchler, A. W. 1964. Potential natural vegetation of the conterminous United States. Special publication no. 36. American Geographical Society, New York, New York, USA.
36. 2. Global and Planetary Change 64:16-25.
37. Lenihan, J. M., C. Daly, D. Bachelet, and R. P. Neilson. 1998. Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model. Northwest Science 72:91-103.
38. Littell, J. S., E. E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J. A. Hicke, J. A. Lutz, R. A. Norheim, and M. M. Elsner. 2010. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Climatic Change 102:129-158.
39. Medvigy, D., S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, D. Y. Hollinger, and P. R. Moorcroft. 2009. Mechanistic scaling of ecosystem function and dynamics in space and time: Ecosystem Demography model version 2. Journal of Geophysical Research 114:G01002.
40. Michalak, J. 2011. Effects of habitat and landscape structure on Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) regeneration across an urban gradient. Northwest Science 85:182-193.
41. Moeur, M., and D. Vandendriesche. 2010. Calibration of state and transition models with FVS. Pages 275-287 in T. B. Jain, R. T. Graham, and J. Sandquist, editors. Integrated management of carbon sequestration and biomass utilization opportunities in a changing climate: Proceedings of the 2009 National Silviculture Workshop, Boise, Idaho, June 15-18, 2009. Proceedings RMRS-P-61. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
42. Moorcroft, P. R. 2006. How close are we to a predictive science of the biosphere? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 21:400-407.
43. Morris, W. G. 1934. Forest fires in western Oregon and western Washington. Oregon Historical Quarterly 35:313-339.
44. Moss, R. H., J. A. Edmonds, K. A. Hibbard, M. R. Manning, S. K. Rose, D. P. van Vuuren, T. R. Carter, S. Emori, M. Kainuma, and T. Kram. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756.
45. Murphy, M. S. 2008. Edaphic controls over succession in former oak savanna, Willamette Valley, Oregon. Thesis. University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA.
46. Nakićenović, N., et al. 2000. IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
47. 2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102:18052-18056.
48. Pfeifer-Meister, L., B. R. Johnson, B. A. Roy, S. Carreño, J. L. Stewart, and S. D. Bridgham. 2012. Restoring wetland prairies: tradeoffs among native plant cover, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. Ecosphere 3:art121.
49. R Development Core Team. 2008. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. www.r-project.org
50. 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104:10288-10293.
51. Rogers, B. M., R. P. Neilson, R. Drapek, J. M. Lenihan, J. R. Wells, D. Bachelet, and B. E. Law. 2011. Impacts of climate change on fire regimes and carbon stocks of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Journal of Geophysical Research 116:G03037.
52. Rollinson, C. R., M. W. Kaye, and L. P. Leites. 2012. Community assembly responses to warming and increased precipitation in an early successional forest. Ecosphere 3:art122.
53. Scanlan, J. C. 1994. State and transition models for rangelands. 5. The use of state and transition models for predicting vegetation change in rangelands. Tropical Grasslands 28:229-240.
54. Scheller, R. M., J. B. Domingo, B. R. Sturtevant, J. S. Williams, A. Rudy, E. J. Gustafson, and D. J. Mladenoff. 2007. Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecological Modelling 201:409-419.
55. Scheller, R. M., and D. J. Mladenoff. 2005. A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Global Change Biology 11:307-321.
56. Sonnenblick, K. L. 2006. Environmental controls over forest succession of a former oak savanna, Jim's Creek, Willamette National Forest, Oregon. Thesis. University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA.
57. Thilenius, J. F. 1968. The Quercus garryana forests of the Willamette Valley, Oregon. Ecology 49:1124-1133.
58. Ulrich, N. D. 2010. Restoring oak habitats in the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon: a multi-objective tradeoffs analysis for landowners and managers. Thesis. Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA.
59. Van Vuuren, D. P., J. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, G. C. Hurtt, T. Kram, V. Krey, and J.-F. Lamarque. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109:5-31.
60. Vitousek, P. M., H. A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, and J. M. Melillo. 1997. Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Science 277:494-499.
61. Walsh, M. K., C. Whitlock, and P. J. Bartlein. 2010. 1200 years of fire and vegetation history in the Willamette Valley, Oregon and Washington, reconstructed using high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analysis. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 297:273-289.
62. Weisberg, P. J., and F. J. Swanson. 2001. Fire dating from tree rings in western Cascades Douglas-fir forests: an error analysis. Northwest Science 75:145-156.
63. Weisz, R., and D. Vandendriesche. 2012. Use of the forest vegetation simulation to quantify disturbance activities in state and transition models. Pages 143-160 in B. K. Kerns, A. J. Shlisky, and C. J. Daniel, editors. Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14-16, 2011. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-869. USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon, USA.
64. Woudenberg, S. W., B. L. Conkling, B. M. O'Connell, E. B. LaPoint, J. A. Turner, and K. L. Waddell. 2010. The forest inventory and analysis database: database description and users manual version 4.0 for phase 2. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-245. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
65. Yospin, G. I. 2012. Historic and simulated vegetation dynamics in former Oregon white oak savanna, southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. Dissertation. University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA.