Identifying meteorological drivers for the seasonal variations of influenza infections in a subtropical city — Hong Kong

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Volumn 12, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 1560-1576

  Chong, Ka Chun ^a   Goggins, William ^a   Zee, Benny Chung Ying ^a   Wang, Maggie Haitian ^a  

^a CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

Epidemic; Influenza; Seasonality; SIR model; Temperature; Transmission rate

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

AIR TEMPERATURE; INFLUENZA; METEOROLOGY; RAINFALL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SEASONALITY; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; URBAN AREA;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ARTICLE; COLD; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; EPIDEMIC; HONG KONG; HUMAN; HUMIDITY; INFECTION RATE; INFLUENZA; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA; MORTALITY; POPULATION RESEARCH; SEASONAL INFLUENZA; SEASONAL VARIATION; CITY; FEMALE; HEALTH; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MALE; RETROSPECTIVE STUDY; SEASON; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION; WEATHER;

CHINA; HONG KONG;

CITIES; FEMALE; HONG KONG; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MALE; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RETROSPECTIVE STUDIES; SEASONS; URBAN HEALTH; WEATHER;

EID: 84922032623     PISSN: 16617827     EISSN: 16604601     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120201560     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Chan, P.K.; Mok, H.Y.; Lee, T.C.; Chu, I.M.; Lam, W.Y.; Sung, J.J. Seasonal influenza activity in Hong Kong and its association with meteorological variations. J. Med. Virol. 2009, 81, 1797-1806.
2. Viboud, C.; Alonso, W.J.; Simonsen, L. Influenza in tropical regions. PLoS Med. 2006, 3, doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030089.
3. Lipsitch, M; Viboud, C. Influenza seasonality: Lifting the fog. PNAS 2009, 106, 3645-3646.
4. World Health Organization. Media Centre: Influenza (Seasonal): Fact Sheet 2009. Available online: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/ (accessed on 1 April 2014).
5. Wong, C.M.; Chan, K.P.; Hedley, A.J.; Peiris, J.M. Influenza-associated mortality in Hong Kong. Clin. Infect. Dis. 2004, 39, 1611-1617.
6. Wong, C.M.; Yang, L.; Chan, K.P.; Leung, G.M.; Chan, K.H.; Guan, Y.; Lam, T.H.; Hedley, A.J.; Peiris, J.S. Influenza-associated hospitalization in a subtropical city. PLoS Med. 2006, 3, doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030121.
7. Dushoff, J.; Plotkin, J.B.; Levin, S.A.; Earn, D.J. Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. PNAS 2004, 101, 16915-16916.
8. Shaman, J.; Pitzer, V.E.; Viboud, C.; Grenfell, B.T.; Lipsitch, M. Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol. 2010, 8, doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316.
9. Shaman, J.; Jeon, C.Y.; Giovannucci, E.; Lipsitch, M. Shortcomings of vitamin D-based model simulations of seasonal influenza. PLoS One 2011, 6, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020743.
10. Te Beest, D.E.; van Boven, M.; Hooiveld, M.; van den Dool, C.; Wallinga, J. Driving factors of influenza transmission in the Netherlands. Amer. J. Epidemiol. 2013, 178, 1469-1477.
11. Census and Statistics Department. The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Table 2: Population Figures from Mid-2002 to Mid-2013. Mid-Year Population for 2013. Available online: http://gia.info.gov.hk/general/201308/13/P201308130528_0528_115779.pdf (accessed on 1 April 2014).
12. Bolton, D. The computation of equivalent potential temperature. Mon. Weather Rev. 1980, 108, 1046-1053.
13. Tetens, O. Über einige meteorologische Begriffe. Z. Geophys. 1930, 6, 297-309. (In German)
14. Wong, W.T. Comparison of Algorithms for the Computation of the Thermodynamic Properties of Moist Air. Technical Note; Hong Kong Observatory; 1989. Available online: http://www.weather.gov.hk/publica/tnl/tnl051.pdf (accessed on 26 January 2015).
15. Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.; Alonso, W.J. The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996-2006. Proc. R. Soc. B 2010, 277, 1857-1866.
16. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonal Influenza: Clinical Signs and Symptoms of Influenza. Available online: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/acip/clinical.htm (accessed on 1 April 2014).
17. Li, F.C.K.; Choi, B.C.K.; Sly, T.; Pak, A.W.P. Finding the real case-fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza. J. Epidemiol. Community Health 2008, 62, 555-559.
18. Chowell, G.; Miller, M.A.; Viboud, C. Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: Transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol. Infect. 2008, 136, 852-864.
19. Burnham, K.P.; Anderson, D.R. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach, 2nd ed.; Springer: New York, NY, USA, 2002.
20. Soebiyanto, R.P.; Adimi, F.; Kiang, R.K. Modeling and predicting seasonal influenza transmission in warm regions using climatological parameters. PLoS One 2010, 5, doi:10.1371/journal.pone. 0009450.
21. Lowen, A.C.; Mubareka, S.; Steel, J.; Palese, P. Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog. 2007, 3, doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151.
22. Lofgren, E.; Fefferman, N.; Naumov, Y.N.; Gorski, J.; Naumova, E.N. Influenza seasonality: Underlying causes and modeling theories. J. Virol. 2007, 81, 5429-5436.
23. Chan, E.Y.; Goggins, W.; Yue, J.; Lee, P. Hospital admissions as a function of temperature, other weather phenomena and pollution levels in an urban setting in China. Bull. WHO 2013, 91, 576-584.
24. Goggins, W.B.; Chan, E.Y.; Yang, C.; Chong, M.; Associations between mortality and meteorological and pollutant variables during the cool season in two Asian cities with sub-tropical climates: Hong Kong and Taipei. Environ. Health 2013, 12, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-12-59.
25. Shaman, J.; Kohn, M. Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS 2009, 106, 3243-3248.
26. Lowen, A.C.; Steel, J.; Mubareka, S.; Palese, P. High temperature (30 ºC) blocks aerosol but not contact transmission of influenza virus. J. Virol. 2008, 82, 5650-5652.
27. Soebiyanto, R.P.; Kiang, R. Meteorological parameters as predictors for seasonal influenza. Geocarto Int. 2014, 29, 39-47.
28. Soebiyanto, R.P.; Clara, W.; Jara, J.; Castillo, L.; Sorto, O.R.; Marinero, S.; de Antinori, M.E.; McCracken, J.P.; Widdowson, M.A.; Azziz-Baumgartner, E.; Kiang, R.K. The role of temperature and humidity on seasonal influenza in tropical areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013. PLoS One 2014, 9, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100659.
29. Juzeniene, A.; Ma, L.W.; Kwitniewski, M.; Polev, G.A.; Lagunova, Z.; Dahlback, A.; Moan, J. The seasonality of pandemic and non-pandemic influenzas: The roles of solar radiation and vitamin D. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2010, 14, 1099e1105.
30. Moan, J.; Dahlback, A.; Ma, L.; Juzeniene, A. Influenza, solar radiation and vitamin D. Dermatoendocrinology 2009, 1, 307-309.
31. Urashima, M.; Segawa, T.; Okazaki, M.; Kurihara, M.; Wada, Y.; Ida, H. Randomized trial of vitamin D supplementation to prevent seasonal influenza A in schoolchildren. Amer. J. Clin. Nutr. 2010, 91, 1255-1260.
32. Weber, T.P.; Stilianakis, N.I. A note on the inactivation of influenza A viruses by solar radiation, relative humidity and temperature. Photochem. Photobiol. 2008, 84, 1601-1602.
33. Chong, K.C.; Zee, B.C. Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus. BMC Infect. Dis. 2012, 12, doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-309.
34. Grais, R.F.; Ellis, J.H.; Glass, G.E. Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 2003, 18, 1065-1072.
35. Wu, J.T.; Cowling, B.J.; Lau, E.H.; Ip, D.K.; Ho, L.M.; Tsang, T.; Chuang, S.K.; Leung, P.Y.; Lo, S.V.; Liu, S.H.; et al. School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2010, 16, 538-541.
36. Cowling, B.J.; Lau, E.H.Y; Lam, C.L.H. Cheng, C.K.; Kovar, J.; Chan, K.H.; Peiris, J.S.; Leung, G.M. Effects of school closures, 2008 winter influenza season, Hong Kong. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2008, 14, 1660-1662.
37. Serfling R.E. Methods for current statistical-analysis of excess pneumonia-influenza deaths. Public Health Rep. 1963, 78, 494-506.
38. Simonsen, L.; Clarke, M.J.; Williamson, G.D.; Stroup, D.F.; Arden, N.H.; Schonberger, L.B. The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: Introducing a severity index. Amer. J. Public Health 1997, 87, 1944-1950.
39. Lo, J.Y.; Tsang, T.H.; Leung, Y.H.; Yeung, E.Y.; Wu, T.; Lim, W.W. Respiratory infections during SARS outbreak, Hong Kong, 2003. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2005, 11, 1738-1741.
40. Simonsen, L.; Fukuda, K.; Schonberger, L.B.; Cox, N.J. The impact of influenza epidemics on hospitalizations. J. Infect. Dis. 2000, 181, 831-837.
41. Monto, A.S.; Gravenstein, S.; Elliott, M.; Schweinle, J. Clinical signs and symptoms predicting influenza infection. Arch. Intern. Med. 2000; 160, 3243-3247.