A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 42, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 162-168

  Kuttippurath, J ^a   Bodeker, G E ^b   Roscoe, H K ^c   Nair, P J ^d  

^a CNRS   (France)

^b BODEKER SCIENTIFIC   (New Zealand)

^c BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

^d CENTRE FOR EARTH SCIENCE STUDIES   (India)

Author keywords

EESC based regression; ozone recovery; ozone trends; PWLT regression; regression analysis

Indexed keywords

OZONE; TIME SERIES;

EESC-BASED REGRESSION; EXPLANATORY VARIABLES; MONTREAL PROTOCOLS; OZONE RECOVERY; OZONE TRENDS; PWLT REGRESSION; REGRESSION MODEL; TOTAL COLUMN OZONE;

REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; ESTIMATION METHOD; OZONE; POLAR REGION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; STRATOSPHERE; TIME SERIES;

EID: 84921854209     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062142     Document Type: Article

References (19)

1. Austin, J., et al. (2010), Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M10, doi: 10.1029/2010JD013857.
2. Brunner, D., J. Staehelin, J. A. Maeder, I. Wohltmann, and, G. E. Bodeker, (2006), Variability and trends in total and vertically resolved stratospheric ozone based on the CATO ozone data set, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4985-5008, doi: 10.5194/acp-6-4985-2006.
3. Froidevaux, L., et al. (2006), Temporal decrease in upper atmospheric chlorine, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23812, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027600.
4. Hood, L. L., and, S. Zhou, (1998), Stratospheric effects of 27-day solar ultraviolet variations: An analysis of UARS MLS ozone and temperature data, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 3629-3638.
5. Kiesewetter, G., B.-M. Sinnhuber, M. Weber, and, J. P. Burrows, (2010), Attribution of stratospheric ozone trends to chemistry and transport: A modelling study, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 12,073-12,089, doi: 10.5194/acp-10-12073-2010.
6. Kuttippurath, J., and, G. Nikulin, (2012), A comparative study of the major sudden stratospheric warmings in the Arctic winters 2003/2004-2009/2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 8115-8129, doi: 10.5194/acp-12-8115-2012.
7. Kuttippurath, J., F. Lefèvre, J.-P. Pommereau, H. K. Roscoe, F. Goutail, A. Pazmiño, and, J. D. Shanklin, (2013), Antarctic ozone loss in 1979-2010: First sign of ozone recovery, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1625-1635, doi: 10.5194/acp-13-1625-2013.
8. Müller, R., J.-U. Grooß, C. Lemmen, D. Heinze, M. Dameris, and, G. E. Bodeker, (2008), Simple measures of ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 251-264.
9. Nair, P. J., et al. (2013), Ozone trends derived from the total column and vertical profiles at a northern mid-latitude station, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10,373-10,384, doi: 10.5194/acp-13-10373-2013.
10. Newman, P., J. S. Daniel, D. Waugh, and, E. R. Nash, (2007), A new formulation of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4537-4552, doi: 10.5194/acp-7-4537-2007.
11. Press, W. H., B. P. Flannery, S. A. Teukolsky, and, W. T. Vetterling (Eds.), (1989), Numerical Recipes, pp. 504-508, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
12. Reinsel, G. C., E. C. Weatherhead, G. C. Tiao, A. J. Miller, R. M. Nagatani, D. J. Wuebbles, and, L. E. Flynn, (2002), On detection of turnaround and recovery in trend for ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4078, doi: 10.1029/2001JD000500.
13. Salby, M., E. Titova, and, L. Deschamps, (2011), Rebound of Antarctic ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09702, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047266.
14. Stolarski, R. S., A. R. Douglass, S. Steenrod, and, S. Pawson, (2006), Trends in stratospheric ozone: Lessons learned from a 3D chemical transport model, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1028-1041.
15. Soukharev, B. E., and, L. L. Hood, (2006), Solar cycle variation of stratospheric ozone: Multiple regression analysis of long-term satellite data sets and comparisons with models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D20314, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007107.
16. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2007), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Rep. 50, Geneva, Switz.
17. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2011), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Rep. 52, Geneva, Switz.
18. Wohltmann, I., R. Lehmann, M. Rex, D. Brunner, and, J. A. Mäder, (2007), A process-oriented regression model for column ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12304, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007573.
19. Yang, E.-S., D. M. Cunnold, M. J. Newchurch, R. J. Salawitch, M. P. McCormick, J. M. Russell III, J. M. Zawodny, and, S. J. Oltmans, (2008), First stage of Antarctic ozone recovery, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20308, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009675.