Impacts of future climate change and Baltic Sea level rise on groundwater recharge, groundwater levels, and surface leakage in the Hanko aquifer in southern Finland

Water (Switzerland)

Volumn 6, Issue 12, 2014, Pages 3671-3700

  Luoma, Samrit ^a   Okkonen, Jarkko ^a  

^a GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF FINLAND   (Finland)

Author keywords

Climate change impacts; Groundwater modelling; Groundwater recharge; Low lying aquifer coastal aquifer; Unsaturated zone

Indexed keywords

AQUIFERS; CLIMATE MODELS; FLOODS; GROUNDWATER; GROUNDWATER FLOW; GROUNDWATER RESOURCES; INFILTRATION; RECHARGING (UNDERGROUND WATERS); SEA LEVEL; SEAWATER; SURFACE WATERS; WATER QUALITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; GROUND WATER RECHARGE; GROUNDWATER MODELLING; PRECIPITATION DATA; SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS; THREE-DIMENSIONAL GROUNDWATER; UNSATURATED ZONE; WATER AVAILABILITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COASTAL AQUIFER; DROUGHT; FLOODING; FLOW MODELING; FUTURE PROSPECT; GROUNDWATER; INFILTRATION; RECHARGE; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SURFACE WATER; THREE-DIMENSIONAL FLOW; WATER AVAILABILITY;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA; FINLAND;

EID: 84920929872     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20734441     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/w6123671     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Emissions Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers- A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III. Available online: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf (accessed on 21 November 2011).
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability-Summary for Policymakers. In Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E., Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2007; pp. 7-22.
3. Oude Essink, G.H.P. Impact of sea-level rise in the Netherlands. In Seawater Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers: Concepts, Methods and Practices, Theory and Applications of Transport in Porous Media; Bear, J., Cheng, A.H.D., Sore, S., Quasar, D., Herrera, I., Eds.; Kluwer Academy: Norwell, MA, USA, 1999; pp. 507-530.
4. Oude Essink, G.H.P. Improving fresh groundwater supply-problems and solutions. Ocean Coast. Manag. 2001, 44, 429-449.
5. Oude Essink, G.H.P.; van Baaren, E.S.; de Louw, P.G.B. Effects of climate change on coastal groundwater systems: A modeling study in the Netherlands. Water Resour. Res. 2010, 46, doi:10.1029/2009WR008719.
6. Rasmussen, P.; Sonnenborg, T.O.; Goncear, G.; Hinsby, K. Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17, 421-443.
7. Niswonger, R.G.; Prudic, D.E.; Regan, R.S. Documentation of the Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF1) Package for Modeling Unsaturated Flow between the Land Surface and the Water Table with MODFLOW-2005; U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A19; U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, USA, 2006; p. 62.
8. Korkka-Niemi, K. Cumulative geological, regional and site-specific factors affecting groundwater quality in domestic wells in Finland. In Monographs of the Boreal Environment Research 20; Vammalan Kirjapaino Oy: Vammala, Finland, 2001; p. 100.
9. Scibek, J.; Allen, D.M. Modeled Impacts of Predicted Climate Change on Recharge and Groundwater Levels. Water Resour. Res. 2006, 42, doi:10.1029/2005WR004742.
10. Scibek, J.; Allen, D.M. Comparing the responses of two high permeability, unconfined aquifers to predicted climate change. Glob. Planet Chang. 2006, 50, 50-62.
11. Scibek, J.; Allen, D.M.; Cannon, A.; Whitfield, P. Groundwater-surface water interaction under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model. J. Hydrol. 2007, 333, 165-181.
12. Jyrkama, I.M.; Sykes, J.F. The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed (Ontario). J. Hydrol. 2007, 338, 237-250.
13. Okkonen, J. Groundwater and Its Response to Climate Variability and Change in Cold Snow Dominated Regions in Finland: Methods and Estimations. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Process and Environmental Engineering, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland, 2011.
14. Jackson, C.R.; Meister, R.; Prudhomme, C. Modeling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. J. Hydrol. 2011, 399, 12-28.
15. Ali, R.; McFarlane, D.; Varma, S.; Dawes, W.; Emelyanova, I.; Hodgson, G.; Charles, S. Potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources of south-western Australia. J. Hydrol. 2012, 475, 456-472.
16. Assefa, K.A.; Woodbury, A.D. Transient, spatially varied groundwater recharge modeling. Water Resour. Res. 2013, 49, 4593-4606.
17. Therrien, R.; McLaren, R.G.; Sudicky, E.A.; Park, Y.J. HydroGeoSphere-A Three-Dimensional Numerical Model Describing Fully-Integrated Subsurface and Surface Flow and Solute Transport; Groundwater Simulations Group, University of Waterloo: Waterloo, ON, Canada, 2012; p. 455.
18. Kolditz, O.; Bauer, S.; Bilke, L.; Böttcher, N.; Delfs, J.O.; Fischer, T.; Görke, U.J.; Kalbacher, T.; Kosakowski, G.; McDermott, C.I.; et al. OpenGeoSys: An open source initiative for numerical simulation of thermo-hydro-mechanical/chemical (THM/C) processes in porous media. Environ. Earth Sci. 2012, 62, 589-599.
19. Maxwell, R.M.; Miller, N.L. Development of a coupled land surface and groundwater model. J. Hydrometeorol. 2005, 6, 233-247.
20. Kollet, S.J.; Maxwell, R.M. Capturing the influence of groundwater dynamics on land surface processes using an integrated, distributed watershed model. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44, doi:10.1029/2007WR006004.
21. Warsta, L. Modelling Water Flow and Soil Erosion in Clayey, Subsurface Drained Agricultural Fields. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland, 2011.
22. Harter, T.; Morel-Seytoux, H. Peer Review of the IWFM, MODFLOW and HGS Model Codes: Potential for Water Management Applications in California's Central Valley and Other Irrigated Groundwater Basins-Final Report; California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum: Sacramento, CA, USA, August 2013.
23. Niswonger, R.G.; Prudic, D.E. Modeling variably saturated flow using kinematic waves in MODFLOW. In Groundwater Recharge in a Desert Environment; Hogan, J.F., Phillips, F.M., Scanlon, B.R., Eds.; American Geophysical Union: Washington, DC, USA, 2004.
24. Seo, H.S.; Šimunek, J.; Poeter, E.P. Documentation of the HYDRUS package for MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Groundwater Model; GWMI 2007-01; International Ground Water Modeling Center, Colorado School of Mines: Golden, CO, USA, 2007.
25. Harbaugh, A.W. MODFLOW-2005, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model- The Ground-Water Flow Process; U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A16; U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, USA, 2005; p. 253.
26. Harbaugh, A.W.; Banta, E.R.; Hill, M.C.; McDonald, M.G. MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model-Modularization Concepts and the Ground-Water Flow Process; U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-92; U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, USA, 2000; p. 121.
27. Twarakavi, N.K.C.; Šimunek, J.; Seo, S. Evaluating interactions between groundwater and vadose zone using the HYDRUS-based flow package for MODFLOW. Vadose Zone J. 2008, 7, 757-768.
28. Twarakavi, N.K.C.; Šimunek, J.; Seo, S. Reply to "Comment on 'Evaluating Interactions between Groundwater and Vadose Zone Using the HYDRUS-based Flow Package for MODFLOW". Vadose Zone J. 2009, 8, 820-821.
29. Niswonger, R.G.; Prudic, D.E. Comment on "Evaluating interactions between groundwater and vadose zone using the HYDRUS-based flow package for MODFLOW". Vadose Zone J. 2009, 8, 818-819.
30. Leterme, B.; Gedeon, M.; Jacques, D. Groundwater Recharge Modeling of the Nete Catchment (Belgium) Using the HYDRUS-1D-MODFLOW Package. In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference HYDRUS Software Applications to Subsurface Flow and Contaminant Transport Problems, Prague, Czech Republic, 21-22 March 2013.
31. Langevin, C.D.; Guo, W. MODFLOW/MT3DMS-Based Simulation of Variable-Density Ground Water Flow and Transport. Ground Water 2006, 44, 339-351.
32. Yang, J.; Graf, T.; Herold, M.; Ptak, T. Modelling the effects of tides and storm surges on coastal aquifers using a coupled surface-subsurface approach. J. Contam. Hydrol. 2013, 149, 61-75.
33. Werner, A.D.; Bakker, M.; Post, V.E.A.; Vandenbohede, A.; Lu, C.; Ataie-Ashtiani, B.; Simmons, C.T.; Barry, D.A. Seawater intrusion processes, investigation and management: Recent advances and future challenges. Adv. Water Res. 2013, 51, 3-26.
34. Leppäranta, M.; Myrberg, K. Physical Oceanography of the Baltic Sea; Springer/Praxis Pub.: Berlin, Germany, 2009. Available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-79703-6 (accessed on 24 November 2014).
35. Feistel, R.; Weinreben, S.; Wolf, H.; Seitz, S.; Spitzer, P.; Adel, B.; Nausch, G.; Schneider, B.; Wright, D.G. Density and Absolute Salinity of the Baltic Sea 2006-2009. Ocean Sci. 2010, 6, 3-24.
36. Fagerlund, G. Chloride Transport and Reinforcement Corrosion in Concrete Exposed to Sea Water pressUre; Division of Building Materials, Lund University: Lund, Sweden, 2008.
37. Millero, F.J.; Kremling, K. The densities of Baltic Waters. Deep Sea Res. 1976, 23, 1129-1138.
38. Neumann, T.; Eilola, K.; Gustafsson, B.; Müller-Karulis, B.; Kuznetsov, I.; Meier, H.E.M.; Savchuk, O.P. Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate. R. Swed. Acad. Sci. AMBIO 2012, 41, 574-585.
39. Meier, H.E.M.; Kjellström, E.; Graham, L.P. Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century. Geophysic. Res. Lett. 2006, 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026488.
40. Finnish Meteorological Institute 2014. Available online: http://www.fmi.fi (accessed on 20 August 2014).
41. Håkanson, L. The Baltic Sea. In Environmental Science: Understanding, Protecting and Managing the Environment in the Baltic Sea Region; Rydén, L., Migula, P., Andersson, M., Eds.; The Baltic University Programme, Uppsala University: Uppsala, Sweden, 2003.
42. Hänninen, P.; äikää, O. Hanko, Trollberget, DEMO-MNA Hankkeen Automaattiset Seuranta-Asemat; Geological Survey of Finland: Espoo, Finland, 2006; p. 21. (In Finnish)
43. Sutinen, R.; Hänninen, P.; Venäläinen, A. Effect of mild winter events on soil water content beneath snowpack. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol. 2007, 51, 56-67.
44. Okkonen, J.; Kløve, B. A sequential modeling approach to assess groundwater-surface water resources in a snow dominated region of Finland. J. Hydrol. 2011, 411, 91-107.
45. Drebs, A.; Nordlund, A.; Karlsson, P.; Helminen, J.; Rissanen, P. Climatological Statistics of Finland 1971-2000; Meteorological Institute: Helsinki, Finland, 2002; p. 100.
46. Gilbert, R.O. Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company Inc.: New York, NY, USA, 1987; ISBN 0-442-23050-8.
47. World Data Center for Climate. Hamburg. CERA Database. 2011. Available online: http://cera-www. dkrz.de (accessed on 26 August 2011).
48. Jylhä, K.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Rosteenoja, K. Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Environ. Res. 2004, 9, 127-152.
49. Veijalainen, N.; Lotsari, E.; Alho, B.; Vehviläinen, B.; Käyhkö, J. National scale assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in Finland. J. Hydrol. 2010, 392, 333-350.
50. Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Eliseev, A.; Kubatzki, C.; Rahmstore, S. CLIMBER-2: A climate system model of intermediate complexity, Part I: Model description and performance for present climate. Clim. Dyn. 2000, 16, 1-17.
51. Ganopolski, A.; Petoukhov, V.; Rahmstore, S.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Eliseev, A.; Kubatzki, C. CLIMBER-2: A climate system model of intermediate complexity, Part II: Model sensitivity. Clim. Dyn. 2001, 17, 735-751.
52. Vehviläinen, B. Snow Cover Models in Operational Watershed Forecasting; National Board of Waters: Helsinki, Finland, 1992; Volume 11, p. 149.
53. Kuusisto, E. Snow Accumulation and Snow Melt in Finland, National Board of Waters: Helsinki, Finland, 1984; Volume 55, p. 149.
54. Bengtsson, L. The importance of refreezing on the diurnal snowmelt cycle with application to a northern Swedish catchment. Nordic Hydrol. 1982, 13, 1-12.
55. Hamon, R.W. Computational of Direct Runoff Amounts from Storm Rainfall; International Association of Scientific Hydrology Publication: Wallingford, Oxon, UK, 1963; Volume 63, pp. 52-62.
56. Male, D.H.; Gray, D.M. Snow cover ablation and runoff. In Handbook of Snow Principles, Processes, Management and Use; Gray, D.M., Male, D.H., Eds.; Pergamon Press: Toronto, NO, Canada, 1981; pp. 360-436.
57. Førland, E.J.; Allerup, P.; Dahlström, B.; Elomaa, E.; Jónsson, T.; Madsen, H.; Perälä, J.; Rissanen, P.; Vedin, H.; Vejen, F. Manual for Operational Correction of Nordic Precipitation Data; Report 24/96; Norwegian Meteorological Institute: Oslo, Norway, 1996; p. 66.
58. Okkonen, J.; Kløve, B. A conceptual and statistical approach for the analysis of climate impact on ground water table fluctuation patterns in cold conditions. J. Hydrol. 2010, 388, 1-12.
59. Abbott, M.B. An Introduction to the Method of Characteristics; Elsevier Publishing Company Inc.: New York, NY, USA, 1966; p. 243.
60. Luoma, S. Steady-State Groundwater Flow Model of the Shallow Aquifer in Hanko, South Finland, Report 57/2012; Geological Survey of Finland: Espoo, Finland, 2012; p. 22.
61. Luoma, S.; Klein, J.; Backman, B. Climate change and groundwater: Impacts and Adaptation in shallow coastal aquifer in Hanko, south Finland. In Climate Change Adaptation in Practice-From Strategy Development to Implementation; Schmidt-Thomé, P., Klein, J., Eds.; Wiley-Blackwell: Chichester, UK, 2013; pp. 137-155.
62. Harbaugh, A.W.; McDonald, M.G. User's Documentation for MODFLOW-96, an Update to the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Finite-Difference Groundwater-Water Flow Model; U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 94-4156; U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, USA, 1996; p. 56.
63. Doherty, J. PEST-Model-Independent Parameter Estimation-User's Manual, 5th ed.; Watermark Numerical Computing: Brisbane, Australia, 2010; p. 336.
64. McCuen, R.H. Modeling Hydrologic Change: Statistical Methods; Lewis Publishers: New York, NY, USA, 2003; p. 433.
65. Venäläinen, A.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Heikinheimo, M.; Kellomäki, S.; Peltola, H.; Strandman, H.; Väisänen, H. Impact of climate change on soil frost under snow cover in a forested land scape. Clim. Res. 2001, 17, 63-72.
66. Mäkinen, R.; Orvomaa, M.; Veijalainen, N.; Huttunen, I. The climate change and groundwater regimes in Finland. In Proceedings of the 11th International Specialized Conference on Watershed and River Basin Management, Budapest, Hungary, 4-5 September 2008.
67. Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; le Quéré, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; et al. Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L., Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA, 2007.
68. Johansson, M.M.; Pellikka, H.; Kahma, K.K.; Ruosteenoja, K. Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast. J. Marine Syst. 2014, 129, 35-46.
69. Johansson, M.M.; Kahma, K.K.; Boman, H.; Launiainen, J. Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast. Boreal Environ. Res. 2004, 9, 153-166.
70. Tran, L.T.; Larsen, F.; Pham, N.Q.; Christiansen, A.V.; Tran, N.; Vu, H.V.; Tran, L.V.; Hoang, H.V.; Hinsby, K. Origin and extent of fresh groundwater, salty paleowaters and recent saltwater intrusions in Red River flood plain aquifers, Vietnam. J. Hydrogeol. 2012, 20, 1295-1313.
71. Masterson, J.P.; Garabedian, S.P. Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system. Ground Water 2007, 45, 209-217.
72. Backman, B.; Luoma, S.; Schmidt-Thomé, P.; Laitinen, J. Potential Risks for Shallow Groundwater Aquifers in Coastal Areas of the Baltic Sea, a Case Study in the Hanko Area in South Finland, CIVPRO Working Paper 2007 (2); Geological Survey of Finland: Espoo, Finland, 2007; p. 46.
73. Luoma, S.; Okkonen, J.; Korkka-Niemi, K.; Hendriksson, N.; Backman, B. Confronting vicinity of the surface water and sea shore in a shallow glaciogenic aquifer in southern Finland. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2014, 18, 1-45.
74. Philipp, S.-T.; Johannes, K. Climate Change Adaptation in Practice-From Strategy Development to Implementation; Philipp, S.-T., Johannes, K., Eds.; Wiley-Blackwell: Chichester, UK, 2013; p. 327.