Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 16, Issue 7, 2016, Pages 1863-1876

  Zittis, George ^a   Hadjinicolaou, Panos ^a   Fnais, Mohammed ^b   Lelieveld, Jos ^a,c  

^a CYPRUS INSTITUTE   (Cyprus)

^b KING SAUD UNIVERSITY   (Saudi Arabia)

^c MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR CHEMISTRY   (Germany)

Author keywords

Climate change; Eastern Mediterranean Middle East; Heat waves; Regional climate modeling

Indexed keywords

EID: 84920517386     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0753-2     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Anderson GB, Bell ML (2011) Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 US communities. Environ Health Perspect 119(2):210–218. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002313
2. Balafoutis CJ, Makrogiannis TJ (2001) Analysis of a heat wave phenomenon over Greece and its implications for tourism and recreation. Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation, Porto Carras, pp 5–10
3. Barriopedro D, Fischer EM, Luterbacher J, Trigo RM, García-Herrera R (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332(6026):220–224. doi:10.1126/science.1201224
4. Black E, Blackburn M, Harrison G, Hoskins B, Methven J (2004) Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave. Weather 59(8):217–223. doi:10.1256/wea.74.04
5. Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown SJ (2011) The role of human activity in the recent warming of extremely warm daytime temperatures. J Clim 24(7):1922–1930. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
6. Christidis N, Stott PA, Jones GS, Shiogama H, Nozawa T, Luterbacher J (2012) Human activity and anomalously warm seasons in Europe. Int J Climatol 32(2):225–239. doi:10.1002/joc.2262
7. Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SN, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
8. Conti S, Meli P, Minelli G, Solimni R, Toccaceli V, Vichi M, Beltrano C, Perini L (2005) Epidemiologic study of mortality during the summer 2003 heat wave in Italy. Environ Res 98(3):390–399
9. COPA COGECA (2003). Assessment of the impact of the heat wave and drought of the summer 2003 on agriculture and forestry. Committee of Agricultural Organisations in the European Union General Committee for Agricultural Cooperation in the European Union, Brussels, Belgium
10. Diffenbaugh NS, Pal JS, Giorgi F, Gao X (2007) Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot. Geophys Res Lett 34(11):L11706. doi:10.1029/2007GL030000
11. D’Ippoliti D et al (2010) The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project. Environ Health 9:37. doi:10.1186/1476-069X-9-37
12. Efthymiadis D, Goodess CM, Jones PD (2011) Trends in Mediterranean gridded temperature extremes and large-scale circulation influences. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:2199–2214. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-2199-2011
13. Evans JP (2010) Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theoret Appl Climatol 99(3):389–402. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0151-8
14. Fink AH, Brücher T, Krüger A, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Ulbrich U (2004) The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought—synoptic diagnosis and impacts. Weather 59(8):209–216. doi:10.1256/wea.73.04
15. Fischer EM, Schär C (2010) Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat Geosci 3(6):398–403. doi:10.1038/ngeo866
16. Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Schär C (2007) Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1029/2006GL029068
17. Flocas HA, Hatzaki M, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Kostopoulou E, Giannakopoulos C, Kolokytha E, Tegoulias I (2011) Ability of RCM/GCM couples to represent the relationship of large scale circulation to climate extremes over the Mediterranean region. Clim Res 46(3):197–209. doi:10.3354/cr00984
18. Founda D, Giannakopoulos C (2009) The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece—a typical summer in the future climate? Glob Planet Change 67:3–4
19. Giorgi F (2006) Climate change hot-spots. Geophys Res Lett 33(8):L08707. doi:10.1029/2006GL025734
20. Grimm NB, Faeth SH, Golubiewski NE, Redman CL, Jianguo W, Xuemei B, Briggs JM (2008) Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 319(5864):756–760. doi:10.1126/science.1150195
21. Grumm RH (2011) The central European and Russian heat event of July–August 2010. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 92:1285–1296. doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3174.1
22. Hadjinicolaou P, Giannakopoulos C, Zerefos C, Lange MA, Pashiardis S, Lelieveld J (2011) Mid-21st century climate and weather extremes in Cyprus as projected by six regional climate models. Reg Env Change 11(3):441–457. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0153-1
23. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
24. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
25. Jaeger EB, Seneviratne SI (2011) Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model. Clim Dyn 36(9):1919–1939. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0780-8
26. Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC, Hudson D, Wilson SS, Jenkins GJ, Mitchell JFB (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
27. Jones GS, Stott PA, Christidis N (2008) Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm northern hemisphere summers. J Geophys Res 113(D2):D02109. doi:10.1029/2007JD008914
28. Kenyon J, Hegerl GC (2008) Influence of modes of climate variability on global temperature extremes. J Clim 21(15):3872–3889. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3617.1
29. Klein Tank AMG et al (2002) Daily dataset of 20th-century surface airtemperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int J Climatol 22:1441–1453. doi:10.1002/joc.773
30. Klinenberg E (2002) Heat wave: a social autopsy of disaster in Chicago. Chicago University Press, Chicago
31. Knutti R, Sedlacek J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3(4):369–373. doi:10.1038/nclimate1716
32. Kostopoulou E, Jones PD (2005) Assessment of climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean. Meteorol Atm Phys 89(1):69–85. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0122-2
33. Kostopoulou E, Giannakopoulos C, Hatzaki M, Karali A, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J, Lange MA (2014) Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14(6):1565–1577. doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1565-2014
34. Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Della-Marta PM, Zerefos CS, Türkeş M, Luterbacher J (2010) Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960. Geophys Res Lett 37(4):L04802. doi:10.1029/2009GL041841
35. Laaidi K, Zeghnoun A, Dousset B, Bretin P, Vandentorren S, Giraudet E, Beaudeau P (2012) The impact of heat islands on mortality in Paris during the August 2003 Heat Wave. Environ Health Perspect 120(2):254–259. doi:10.1289/ehp.1103532
36. Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange MA, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Xoplaki E (2012) Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Clim Change 114:667–687. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4
37. Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Giannakopoulos C, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E (2013) Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century. Reg Env Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0444-4
38. Maheras P, Flocas H, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Vafiadis M (2006) Circulation types and extreme temperature changes in Greece. Clim Res 30(2):161–174. doi:10.3354/cr030161
39. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305(5686):994–997. doi:10.1126/science.1098704
40. Mueller B, Seneviratne SI (2012) Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109(31):12398–12403. doi:10.1073/pnas.1204330109
41. Nakicenovic N et al (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
42. National Research Council (2011) Climate stabilization targets: emissions, concentrations, and impacts over decades to millennia. National Academies Press, Washington
43. Önol B, Semazzi FHM (2009) Regionalization of climate change simulations over the eastern Mediterranean. J. Clim 22:1944–1961. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1807.1
44. Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R (2012) Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat Clim Change 2(4):248–253. doi:10.1038/nclimate1385
45. Sánchez E, Gallardo C, Gaertner MA, Arribas A, Castro M (2004) Future climate extreme events in the Mediterranean simulated by a regional climate model: a first approach. Glob Planet Change 44(1–4):163–180. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.010
46. Seidel DJ, Fu Q, Randel WJ, Reichler TJ (2008) Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nat Geosci 1:21–24. doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.38
47. Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ (2010) Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth Sci Rev 99(3–4):125–161. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004
48. Solberg S, Hov Ø, Isaksen ISA, Coddeville P, De Backer H, Forster C, Orsolini Y, Uhse K (2008) European surface ozone in the extreme summer 2003. J Geophys Res 113:D07307. doi:10.1029/2007JD009098
49. Tanarhte M, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J (2012) Intercomparison of temperature and precipitation datasets based on observations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. J Geophys Res 117:D12102. doi:10.1029/2011JD017293
50. Tolika CK, Zanis P, Anagnostopoulou C (2012) Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections from ensembles of RCMs. Global NEST 14(4):407–421
51. Tressol M, Ordonez C, Zbinden R, Brioude J, Thouret V, Mari C, Nedelec P, Cammas JP, Smit H, Patz HW, Volz-Thomas A (2008) Air pollution during the 2003 European heat wave as seen by the MOZAIC airliners. Atmos Chem Phys 8:2133–2150. doi:10.5194/acp-8-2133-2008
52. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012) World Population Prospects: The 2011 Revision. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm. Accessed 7 Feb 2014
53. United Nations, High Commissioner for Refuges (2009) Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR perspective. http://www.unhcr.org/4901e81a4.html Accessed 27 Jan 2014
54. World Meteorological Organization (2009) Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation. Climate Data and Monitoring WCDMP-No. 72
55. Zachariadis T, Hadjinicolaou P (2014) The effect of climate change on electricity needs—a case study from Mediterranean Europe. Energy (in press). doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.001
56. Zanis P, Kapsomenakis I, Philandras C, Douvis K, Nikolakis D, Kanellopoulou E, Zerefos C, Repapis C (2009) Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1809
57. Zittis G, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J (2014) Role of soil moisture in the amplification of climate warming in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Clim Res 59:27–37. doi:10.3354/cr01205