Novel bottom-up urban water demand forecasting model: Revealing the determinants, drivers and predictors of residential indoor end-use consumption

Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Volumn 95, Issue , 2015, Pages 15-37

  Makki, Anas A ^a,b   Stewart, Rodney A ^a   Beal, Cara D ^a   Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak ^a  

^a GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b KING ABDULAZIZ UNIVERSITY   (Saudi Arabia)

Author keywords

Smart meters; Water demand forecasting; Water demand management; Water end use consumption; Water micro components

Indexed keywords

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA); CLUSTER ANALYSIS; HOUSING; MICROOPTICS; POPULATION STATISTICS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SMART METERS; STATISTICAL TESTS; SURVEYS; WATER METERS;

DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMPTION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS; WATER DEMAND FORECASTING; WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT; WATER END USE; WATER METERING TECHNOLOGY; WATER MICRO COMPONENTS;

FORECASTING;

BOTTOM-UP APPROACH; DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RESEARCH METHOD; WATER DEMAND; WATER PLANNING; WATER USE;

ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; CHI SQUARE TEST; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING; HOUSEHOLD; HUMAN; MODEL; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; RESIDENTIAL AREA; SOCIAL STATUS; URBAN AREA; WATER ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER SUPPLY;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84920185787     PISSN: 09213449     EISSN: 18790658     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.11.009     Document Type: Article

References (111)

1. C. Anand, and D.S. Apul Economic and environmental analysis of standard high efficiency, rainwater flushed, and composting toilets J Environ Manage 92 3 2011 419 428
2. ® software, 4.1 ed. 1995-2010 2010 Aquacraft, Inc. Boulder, CO, USA http://www.aquacraft.com/
3. F. Arbués, R. Barberán, and I. Villanúa Water price impact on residential water demand in the city of Zaragoza. A dynamic panel data approach 40th European Congress of the European Regional Studies Association (ERSA) in Barcelona, Spain 30-31 August 2000
4. F. Arbués, M.Á. GarcIa-Valiñas, and R. MartInez-Espiñeira Estimation of residential water demand: a state-of-the-art review J Socio-econ 32 2003 81 102
5. F. Arbués, I. Villanúa, and R. Barberán Household size and residential water demand: an empirical approach∗ Aust J Agric Resour Econ 54 2010 61 80
6. A. Athuraliya, K. Gan, and P. Roberts Yarra Valley Water 2007 appliance stock and usage patterns survey 2008 Yarra Valley Water Victoria
7. E. Babbie The practice of social research 13th ed. 2012 CengageBrain.com
8. O.T. Barthelemy Untangling scenario components with agent based modelling 2006 Manchester Metropolitan University
9. B. Bates, Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, and J. Palutikof Climate change and water. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2008
10. D.D. Baumann, J.J. Boland, and M.W. Hanemann Urban water demand management and planning 1997
11. C. Beal, E. Bertone, and R.A. Stewart Evaluating the energy and carbon reductions resulting from resource-efficient household stock Energy Build 55 2012 422 432
12. C. Beal, T. Gardner, A. Sharma, R. Barton, and M. Chong A desktop analysis of potable water savings from internally plumbed rainwater tanks in South East Qld. Urban Water Security Research Alliance. Technical Report No. 26 2011 http://www.urbanwateralliance.org.au/publications/UWSRA-tr26.pdf
13. C. Beal, A.A. Makki, and R.A. Stewart Identifying the drivers of water consumption: a summary of results from the South East Queensland residential end use study, Science Forum and Stakeholder Engagement: Building Linkages Collaboration and Science Quality Urban Water Secur Res Alliance 2012 126 132
14. C. Beal, R. Stewart, T. Huang, and E. Rey SEQ residential end use study J Aust Water Assoc 38 2011 80 84
15. C. Beal, and R.A. Stewart South East Queensland residential end use study: final report. Urban Water Security Research Alliance. Technical Report No. 47 2011 http://www.urbanwateralliance.org.au/publications/UWSRA-tr47.pdf
16. C.D. Beal, A. Sharma, T. Gardner, and M. Chong A desktop analysis of potable water savings from internally plumbed rainwater tanks in South-East Queensland, Australia Water Resour Manage 26 6 2012 1577 1590
17. C.D. Beal, and R.A. Stewart Identifying residential water end-uses underpinning peak day and peak hour demand J Water Resour Plan Manage 2013 10.1061/(ASCE)WR 1943-5452.0000357
18. C.D. Beal, R.A. Stewart, J. Gardner, K. Fielding, A. Spinks, and R. McCrae Mind or machine? Examining the drivers of residential water end-use efficiency J Aust Water Assoc 40 3 2013 66 70
19. C. Bennett, R.A. Stewart, and C.D. Beal ANN-based residential water end-use demand forecasting model Expert Syst Appl 40 2012 1014 1023
20. W.D. Berry Understanding regression assumptions. Sage University paper series on quantitative applications in social sciences, 07-092 1993 Sage Newbury Park, CA
21. E. Bertone, C.D. Beal, and R.A. Stewart Using evidenced-based data to optimise water-energy-GHG nexus efficiency programs for residential developments in Queensland, Australia, IWA 2012 2012 International Water Association
22. R.B. Billings, and C.V. Jones Forecasting urban water demand 2nd ed. 2008 American Water Works Association Denver
23. E. Blokker, J. Vreeburg, and J. van Dijk Simulating residential water demand with a stochastic end-use model J Water Resour Plan Manage 136 2010 19 26
24. T. Britton, R.A. Stewart, and K. O'Halloran Smart metering: providing the foundation for post meter leakage management 5th IWA specialist conference on efficient use and management of urban water 2009 Australian Water Association
25. T. Britton, R.A. Stewart, and K. O'Halloran Smart metering: enabler for rapid and effective post meter leakage identification and water loss management J Clean Prod 54 2013 166 176
26. Z. Chen, H.H. Ngo, W. Guo, X.C. Wang, C. Miechel, and N. Corby Analysis of social attitude to the new end use of recycled water for household laundry in Australia by the regression models J Environ Manage 126 2013 79 84
27. G. Cole, and R.A. Stewart Smart meter enabled disaggregation of urban peak water demand: precursor to effective urban water planning Urban Water J 10 3 2012 174 194
28. Commonwealth-of-Australia Climate data online. Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology 2013 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml
29. Commonwealth-of-Australia Drought. Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology 2013 http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/drought.htm
30. Commonwealth-of-Australia Living with drought. Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology 2013 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/livedrought.shtml
31. Commonwealth-of-Australia Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards (WELS) scheme 2011 http://www.waterrating.gov.au/
32. H. Cooley, J. Christian-Smith, P.H. Gleick, M.J. Cohen, M. Heberger, and N. Ross California's next million acre-feet: saving water, energy, and money 2010 Pacific Institute Oakland, September
33. V.c. Corral-Verdugo, R.B. Bechtel, and B. Fraijo-Sing Environmental beliefs and water conservation: an empirical study J Environ Psychol 23 2003 247 257
34. A. Correljé, D. François, and T. Verbeke Integrating water management and principles of policy: towards an EU framework? J Clean Prod 15 2007 1499 1506
35. E. Coultas, S. Maheepala, L. Neumann, C. Beal, R.A. Stewart, and M. Chong Towards the quantification of rainwater tank yield in South East Queensland by considering the spatial variability of tanks, Building Linkages, Collaboration and Science Quality Urban Water Secur Res Alliance 2012 108 113
36. J. Creasey, E. Glennie, and C. Waylen Microcomponent-based forecasting for the AMP5 WRP: final report (August 2007) 2007 Severn Trent Water, WRc plc. UK http://www.stwater.co.uk/upload/pdf/C5-WRc-report-UC7353-Microcomponents-for-AMP5-WRP-Revis-Au.pdf, UK
37. J.W. Creswell, and V.L.P. Clark Designing and conducting mixed methods research 2007 Sage Publications, Inc. USA
38. L.W. Davis Durable goods and residential demand for energy and water: evidence from a field trial RAND J Econ 39 2008 530 546
39. W.B. DeOreo, J.P. Heaney, and P.W. Mayer Flow trace analysis to assess water use J Am Water Works Assoc 88 1996 79 90
40. E.A. Donkor, T.A. Mazzuchi, R. Soyer, and J.A. Roberson Urban water demand forecasting: a review of methods and models J Water Resour Plan Manage 140 2 2014 146 159
41. K.S. Fielding, S. Russell, A. Spinks, and A. Mankad Determinants of household water conservation: the role of demographic, infrastructure, behavior, and psychosocial variables Water Resour Res 48 10 2012 1 12 10.1029/2012WR012398 W10510
42. J. Fyfe, D. May, A. Turner, and S. White Complementary analytical techniques for urban water forecasting in IRP Integrated resource planning for urban water - resource papers, Waterlines report 2010 National Water Commission Canberra
43. J.M. Galán, A. López-Paredes, and R. Del Olmo An agent-based model for domestic water management in Valladolid metropolitan area Water Resour Res 45 5 2009 1 17 10.1029/2007WR006536 W05401
44. S. Gato-Trinidad, N. Jayasuriya, and P. Roberts Understanding urban residential end uses of water Water Sci Technol 64 2011 36 42
45. S. Gato Forecasting urban residential water demand [PhD Thesis] 2006 School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering. RMIT University
46. P.H. Gleick The world's water volume 7: the biennial report on freshwater resources 2011 Island Press USA
47. H.M. Hanif, K.A. Rasmani, and N.M. Ramli Challenges in determining attributes to generate models for estimation of residential water consumption based on consumer data AIP conference proceedings 2013 AIP Publishing LLC Putrajaya, Malaysia 1306 1311
48. M. Heinrich Water end use and efficiency project (WEEP) - final report. BRANZ Study Report 159 2007 Branz, Judgeford New Zealand
49. M. Heinrich Auckland water use study - monitoring of water end uses. SB10 New Zealand 2009 http://www.branz.co.nz/cms-show-download.php?id=fd1b4c6fd498564cefe2084a7e99c7b0265b4607
50. L.A. House-Peters, and H. Chang Urban water demand modeling: review of concepts, methods, and organizing principles Water Resour Res 47 5 2011 1 15 10.1029/2010WR009624 W05401
51. C.W. Howe, and F.P. Linaweaver The impact of price on residential water demand and its relation to system design and price structure Water Resour Res 3 1967 13 32
52. IBM-Corp. IBM SPSS statistics for windows, version 21.0 2012 IBM Corp. Armonk, NY
53. D. Inman, and P. Jeffrey A review of residential water conservation tool performance and influences on implementation effectiveness Urban Water J 3 2006 127 143
54. H. Jacobs, and J. Haarhoff Application of a residential end-use model for estimating cold and hot water demand, wastewater flow and salinity Water S. A. 30 2004 305 316
55. H. Jacobs, and J. Haarhoff Structure and data requirements of an end-use model for residential water demand and return flow Water S. A. 30 2004 293 304
56. Y. Jiang China's water scarcity J Environ Manage 90 11 2009 3185 3196
57. B. Jorgensen, M. Graymore, and K. O'Toole Household water use behavior: an integrated model J Environ Manage 91 2009 227 236
58. B.S. Jorgensen, J.F. Martin, M. Pearce, and E. Willis Some difficulties and inconsistencies when using habit strength and reasoned action variables in models of metered household water conservation J Environ Manage 115 2013 124 135
59. B.S. Jorgensen, J.F. Martin, M.W. Pearce, and E.M. Willis Predicting household water consumption with individual-level variables Environ Behav 2013 1 26 10.1177/0013916513482462
60. D.S. Kenney, C. Goemans, R. Klein, J. Lowrey, and K. Reidy Residential water demand management: lessons from Aurora, Colorado1 J Am Water Resour Assoc 44 2008 192 207
61. S. Kim, S. Choi, J. Koo, and I. Hyun Trend analysis of domestic water consumption depending upon social, cultural, economic parameters Water Sci Technol: Water Supply 7 2007 61 68
62. M. Kowalski, and D. Marshallsay Using measured microcomponent data to model the impact of water conservation strategies on the diurnal consumption profile Water Sci Technol: Water Supply 5 3-4 2005 145 150
63. M. Lee, and B. Tansel Life cycle based analysis of demands and emissions for residential water-using appliances J Environ Manage 101 2012 75 81
64. M. Lee, B. Tansel, and M. Balbin Influence of residential water use efficiency measures on household water demand: a four year longitudinal study Resour Conserv Recycl 56 2011 1 6
65. M. Loh, and P. Coghlan Domestic water use study: in Perth, Western Australia, 1998-2001 2003 Water Corporation Western Australia
66. M. Loh, P. Coghlan, and Australia, W. Domestic water use study: in Perth, Western Australia, 1998-2001 2003 Water Corporation
67. A.A. Makki, R.A. Stewart, K. Panuwatwanich, and C. Beal Development of a domestic water end use consumption forecasting model for South-East Queensland, Australia The 6th IWA specialist conference on efficient use and management of water 2011 International Water Association
68. A.A. Makki, R.A. Stewart, K. Panuwatwanich, and C. Beal Revealing the determinants of shower water end use consumption: enabling better targeted urban water conservation strategies J Clean Prod 60 2013 129 146
69. C. Matos, C.A. Teixeira, R. Bento, J. Varajão, and I. Bentes An exploratory study on the influence of socio-demographic characteristics on water end uses inside buildings Sci Total Environ 466 2014 467 474
70. P.W. Mayer, and W.B. DeOreo Residential end uses of water 1999 American Water Works Association
71. P.W. Mayer, W.B. DeOreo, E. Towler, L. Martien, and D. Lewis Tampa water department residential water conservation study: the impacts of high efficiency plumbing fixture retrofits in single-family homes. A report prepared for Tampa Water Department and the United States Environmental Protection Agency 2004
72. N. Mead Investigation of domestic water end use, Faculty of Engineering & Surveying. University of Southern Queensland. Research Project 2008 http://eprints.usq.edu.au/5783/
73. V.G. Mitchell Applying integrated urban water management concepts: a review of Australian experience Environ Manage 37 2006 589 605
74. K.A. Mourad, J.C. Berndtsson, and R. Berndtsson Potential fresh water saving using greywater in toilet flushing in Syria J Environ Manage 92 10 2011 2447 2453
75. K.A. Nguyen, R.A. Stewart, and H. Zhang An autonomous and intelligent expert system for residential water end-use classification Expert Syst Appl 41 2 2014 342 356
76. K.A. Nguyen, R.A. Stewart, and H. Zhang An intelligent pattern recognition model to automate the categorisation of residential water end-use events Environ Model Softw 47 2013 108 127
77. K.A. Nguyen, H. Zhang, and R.A. Stewart Development of an intelligent model to categorise residential water end use events J Hydro-Environ Res 7 3 2013 182 201
78. M.L. Nieswiadomy Estimating urban residential water demand: effects of price structure, conservation, and education Water Resour Res 28 1992 609 615
79. J.M. Parker, and R.L. Wilby Quantifying household water demand: a review of theory and practice in the UK Water Resour Manage 27 2013 981 1011 10.1007/s11269-012-0190-2
80. J.I. Price, J.M. Chermak, and J. Felardo Low-flow appliances and household water demand: an evaluation of demand-side management policy in Albuquerque, New Mexico J Environ Manage 133 2014 37 44
81. C. Qi, and N.B. Chang System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts J Environ Manage 92 6 2011 1628 1641
82. QWC Queensland water commission website media release for 25th June 2010. The State of Queensland 1995-2013. Queensland Government 2010 http://www.qwc.qld.gov.au/tiki-read-article.php?articleId=410
83. K. Rathnayaka, H. Malano, S. Maheepala, B. Nawarathna, B. George, and M. Arora Review of residential urban water end-use modelling 19th international congress on modelling and simulation 2011 Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Perth, Australia
84. M.E. Renwick, and S.O. Archibald Demand side management policies for residential water use: who bears the conservation burden? Land Econ 74 3 1998 343 359
85. P. Roberts Yarra Valley Water 2004 residential end use measurement study. Final report, June 2005 2005 http://www.yvw.com.au/yvw/groups/public/documents/document/yvw1001680.pdf
86. S. Russell, and K. Fielding Water demand management research: a psychological perspective Water Resour Res 46 5 2010 1 12 W05302, doi:05310.01029/02009WR008408
87. E. Sadalla, A. Berlin, R. Neel, and S. Ledlow Priorities in residential water use: a trade-off analysis Environ Behav 2012 1 26 10.1177/0013916512456286
88. P. Sim, A. McDonald, J. Parsons, and P. Rees WaND briefing note 28 revised options for UK domestic water reduction: a review, working paper 07/04 2007 School of Geography, University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT, UK 1 50 http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/4978/
89. S. Sivakumaran, and T. Aramaki Estimation of household water end use in Trincomalee Sri Lanka Water Int 35 2010 94 99
90. R.A. Stewart, R.M. Willis, D. Giurco, K. Panuwatwanich, and G. Capati Web-based knowledge management system: linking smart metering to the future of urban water planning Aust Plan 47 2010 66 74
91. R.A. Stewart, R.M. Willis, K. Panuwatwanich, and O. Sahin Showering behavioural response to alarming visual display monitors: longitudinal mixed method study Behav Inform Technol 2011 1 17
92. A. Turner, J. Fyfe, M. Retamai, S. White, and A. Coates SEQ's One To One Water Savings Program-Unpacking residential high water usage Water (Melbourne, Artarmon) 37 1 2010 82 91
93. A. Turner, J. Fyfe, M. Retamal, S. White, and A. Coates The one to one water savings program unpacking residential high water usage IWA efficient 09 conference Sydney 2009
94. A. Turner, G. Hausler, N. Carrard, A. Kazaglis, S. White, and A. Hughes Review of water supply-demand options for South East Queensland 2007 Institute for Sustainable Futures Sydney and Cardno, Brisbane
95. A. Turner, S. White, K. Beatty, A. Gregory, and F. Cubillo Results of the largest residential demand management program in Australia Water Sci Technol: Water Supply 5 2005 249 256
96. UWSRA, Urban Water Security Research Alliance. http://www.urbanwateralliance.org.au/index.html.
97. C. Walton, and K. Holmes How much water efficiency does $321 million buy? International Water Association (IWA) Australian Water Association, Sydney, Australia Proceedings of the 5th IWA specialist conference, efficient 2009 2009
98. Water Corporation Perth residential water use study 2008/2009 2011 Water Forever, Water Corporation Western Australia http://www.water.wa.gov.au/PublicationStore/first/98576.pdf
99. R.M. Willis Domestic water end use study: an investigation of the water savings attributed to demand management strategies and dual reticulated recycled water systems [PhD Thesis] 2011 School of Engineering. Griffith University
100. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, and B. Capati Closing the loop on water planning: an integrated smart metering and web-based knowledge management system approach, ICA 2009 10th IWA international conference on instrumentation control and automation 2009
101. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, L. Chen, and L. Rutherford Water end use consumption analysis study into Gold Coast dual reticulated households: pilot study, OzWater'09-From Challenges to Solutions 2009 Australian Water Association (AWA)
102. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, and S. Emmonds Pimpama-Coomera dual reticulation end use study: pre-commission baseline context and post-commission end use prediction Water Sci Technol: Water Supply 10 2010 302 314
103. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, D.P. Giurco, M.R. Talebpour, and A. Mousavinejad End use water consumption in households: impact of socio-demographic factors and efficient devices J Clean Prod 60 2013 107 115
104. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, K. Panuwatwanich, B. Capati, and D. Giurco Gold Coast domestic water end use study J Aust Water Assoc 36 2009 79 95
105. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, K. Panuwatwanich, S. Jones, and A. Kyriakides Alarming visual display monitors affecting shower end use water and energy conservation in Australian residential households Resour Conserv Recycl 54 2010 1117 1127
106. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, K. Panuwatwanich, and P.R. Williams Influence of household socioeconomic region and resident type on end use water consumption levels 2nd international conference on water economics, statistics, and finance Alexandroupolis, Thrace - Greece, 3-5 July 2009 2009 International Water Association
107. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, K. Panuwatwanich, P.R. Williams, and A.L. Hollingsworth Quantifying the influence of environmental and water conservation attitudes on household end use water consumption J Environ Manage 92 2011 1996 2009
108. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, M.R. Talebpour, A. Mousavinejad, S. Jones, and D. Giurco Revealing the impact of socio-demographic factors and efficient devices on end use water consumption: case of Gold Coast, Australia 2009 International Water Association (IWA) Efficient 2009
109. R.M. Willis, R.A. Stewart, P. Williams, C. Hacker, S. Emmonds, and G. Capati Residential potable and recycled water end uses in a dual reticulated supply system Desalination 272 2011 201 211
110. A.N. Yurdusev 'Level of analysis' and 'unit of analysis': a case for distinction Millenn - J Int Stud 22 1993 77 88
111. Y. Zhou, B. Zhang, H. Wang, and J. Bi Drops of energy: conserving urban water to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Environ Sci Technol 47 19 2013 10753 10761 10.1021/es304816h