Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Volumn 20, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 1-19

  Xiao jun, Wang ^a,b,c   Jian yun, Zhang ^a,b   Shamsuddin, Shahid ^d   Rui min, He ^a,b   Xing hui, Xia ^c   Xin li, Mou ^c  

^a NANJING HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (China)

^b YANGTZE RIVER SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (China)

^c BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^d UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MALAYSIA   (Malaysia)

Author keywords

Climate change; System dynamics; Water demand forecasting; Water management; Yulin city

Indexed keywords

EID: 84918568184     PISSN: 13812386     EISSN: 15731596     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9476-9     Document Type: Article

References (84)

1. Adamowski JF (2008) Peak daily water demand forecast modeling using artificial neural networks. J Water Resour Plan Manag 134(2):119–128
2. ADB (2002) Demand analysis and forecasting (Chapter-3), In: Handbook for the economic analysis of water supply. Project Economic Evaluation Division, Economics and Development Resource Center, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, Philippines, December, 2002. http://beta.adb.org/sites/default/files/economic-analysis-water-projects.pdf
3. Ahmad S, Simonovic SP (2000) System dynamics modeling of reservoir operations for flood management. J Comput Eng 14(3):190–198
4. Ahmad S, Simonovic P (2004) Spatial system dynamics: new approach for simulation of water resources systems. J Comput Civ Eng 18(4):331–340
5. Altukaynak AS, Özger M, Çakmakci M (2005) Water consumption prediction of Istanbul city by using fuzzy logic approach. Water Resour Manag 19:641–654
6. Alvisi S, Franchini M, Marinelli A (2003) A stochastic model for representing drinking water demand at residential level. Water Resour Manag 17:197–222
7. Amarasinghe UA, Giordano M, Liao Y, Shu Z (2005) Water supply, water demand and agricultural water scarcity in China: a basin approach. Country Policy Support Program (CPSP) Report 11. International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID), New Delhi. http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/files_new/research_projects/ICID_China_A_Basin%20Approach.pdf
8. Babel MS, Das Gupta A, Pradhan P (2007) A multivariate econometric approach for domestic water demand modeling: an application to Kathmandu, Nepal. Water Resour Manag 21:573–589
9. Black L, Breierova L, Martin L, 1997. Vensim object-oriented systems dynamics programming software. System Dynamics Group, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusets Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA o2142. http://clexchange.org/ftp/guidedstudy/vensim-tut.pdf
10. Blaney HF, Criddle WD (1962) Determining consumptive use and irrigation water requirements. USDA Tech. Bull. 1275, Washington, D.C. 59 pp
11. Bougadis J, Adamowski K, Diduch R (2005) Short-term municipal water demand forecasting. Hydrol Process 19(1):137–148
12. Brouwer C, Prins K, Heibloem M (1986) Irrigation water management: irrigation water needs. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Available via DIALOG. http://www.fao.org/docrep/S2022E/S2022E00.htm#Contents
13. Butler D, Memon FA (2006) Water demand management. IWA Publishing, London
14. CNCCP (2007) China’s national climate change programme. Report of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), June 2007. www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File188.pdf
15. Combalicer EA, Cruz RVO, Lee S, Im S (2010) Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines. J Earth Syst Sci 119(3):265–283
16. Dai A (2011) Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2(1):45–65
17. Downing TE, Butterfield RE, Edmonds B (2003) Climate change and the demand for water, research report. Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office, Oxford
18. Dursun S (2010) Effect of global climate change on water balance of Beyşehir Lake (Konya – Turkey). BALWOIS 2010, Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia, 25–29 May 2010
19. Elshorbagy A, Jutla A, Barbour L, Kells J (2005) System dynamics approach to asses the sustainability of reclamation of disturbed watersheds. Can J Civ Eng 35(1):144–158
20. Environment Canada (2005) Threats to water availability to Canada. National water research institute, Ontario
21. Ford A (1999a) Modeling the environment: an introduction to system dynamics modeling of environmental systems. Island Press, Washington DC
22. Ford DN (1999b) A behavioral approach to feedback loop dominance analysis. Syst Dyn Rev 15:3–36
23. Forrester JW (1961) Industrial dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, 464 pp
24. Forrester JW (1969) Urban dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge
25. Forrester J (1971a) Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technol Rev 73(3):52–68
26. Forrester JW (1971b) World dynamics. The MIT Press, Cambridge
27. Frederick KD, Gleick PH (1999) Water and global climate change: potential impacts on U.S. water resources. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, USA. http://www.c2es.org/publications/water-and-global-climate-change-potential-impacts-us-water-resources
28. Freeman GJ (2011) Changing water balance for California’s North Fork Feather River. 79th Annual Western Snow Conference, Stateline, Nevada, 19–21 April 2011, pp 71–82
29. Gastelum JR, Valdes JB, Stewart S (2009) A decision support system to improve water resources management in the Conchos basin. Water Resour Manag 23(8):1519–1548
30. Ghiassi M, Zimbra DK, Saidane H (2008) Urban water demand forecasting with a dynamic artificial neural network model. J Water Resour Plan Manag 134(4):138–146
31. Guo HC, Liu L, Huang GH, Fuller GA, Zou R, Yin YY (2001) A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: a study for the Lake Erhai Basin. J Environ Manage 61:93–111
32. Howe C, Jones RN, Maheepala S (2005) Implications of potential climate change for Melbourne’s water resources. CSIRO Urban Water, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Melbourne
33. IPCC (2001) In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp
34. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
35. Jakimavičius D, Kriaučiūnienė J (2013) The climate change impact on the water balance of the Curonian Lagoon. Water Resour 40(2):120–132
36. Karamouz M, Yazdi MSS, Ahmadi B, Zahraie B (2011). A system dynamics approach to economic assessment of water supply and demand strategies. Paper presented at the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability - Proceedings of the 2011 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 1194–1203
37. Karavezyris V, Timpe K-P, Marzi R (2002) Application of system dynamics and fuzzy logic to forecasting of municipal solid waste. Math Comput Simul 60:149–158
38. Khatri KB, Vairavamoorthy K (2009) Water demand forecasting for the city of the future against the uncertainties and the global change pressures: case of Birmingham. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2009: Great Rivers
39. Langsdale S, Beall A, Carmichael J, Cohen S, Forster C (2007) An exploration of water resources futures under climate change using system dynamics modeling. Integr Assess J 7(1):51–79
40. Leal Neto AdC, Legey LFL, Gonzalez-Araya MC, Jablonski S (2006) A system dynamics model for the environmental management of the Sepetiba Bay watershed, Brazil. Environ Manag 38(5):879–888
41. Lovei L (1992) An approach to the economic analysis of water supply projects (Volume 1). Policy research working paper no. WPS 1005, The World Bank, Washington
42. Lu L, Xiuju Z, Xiuping L (2011). Application of system dynamics approach on water demand prediction in Yingtan city. Paper presented at the IAHS-AISH Publication 350: 235–240
43. Ma Y, Zou C, Sun Q, Zhang G, Wang K (2008) Prediction on ecological water demand in chongming island based on system dynamics. Chin J Ecol 27(1):140–144
44. Madani K, Mariño MA (2009) System dynamics analysis for managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud river basin. Water Resour Manag 23(11):2163–2187
45. Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J (1992) Beyond the limits. Chelsea Green Publishing Co, Post Mills, p 300pp
46. Milly PCD, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438:347–350
47. Mimi ZA, Jamous SA (2010) Climate change and agricultural water demand: impacts and adaptations. Afr J Environ Sci Technol 4(4):183–191
48. MWR (2004) China water resources bulletin 2004, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing
49. MWR (2007) China water resources bulletin 2007, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing
50. NWAFU (2008) Water resources planning in Yulin city. Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
51. Pohle I, Koch H, Gruenewald U (2012) Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany. Adv Geosci 32:49–53
52. Qi C, Chang N (2011) System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts. J Environ Manage 92(6):1628–1641
53. Qin H, Sun AC, Liu J, Zheng C (2012) System dynamics analysis of water supply and demand in the North China plain. Water Policy 14(2):214–231
54. Radzicki MJ, Taylor RA (2008) “Origin of system dynamics: Jay W. Forrester and the history of system dynamics”. In: U.S. Department of Energy’s Introduction to System Dynamics. Retrieved 23 Oktober 2008
55. Richardson GP, Pugh A (1981) Introduction to system dynamics modeling with dynamo. MIT Press, Cambridge
56. Richmond B (1999) Systems thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990’s and beyend. Syst Dyn Rev 9(2): Summer 1993
57. Roy SB, Chen L, Girvetz E (2010) Evaluating sustainability of projected water demands under future climate change scenarios. University of Washington, Washington
58. Salathé EP, Mote PW, Wiley MW (2007) Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. Int J Climatol 27(12):1611–1621
59. Saysel AK, Barlas Y, Yenigun O (2002) Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. J Environ Manage 64:247–260
60. Shahid S (2011) Impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in Northwestern Bangladesh. Clim Chang 105(3–4):433–453
61. Shahid S (2012) Vulnerability of the power sector of Bangladesh to climate change and extreme weather events. Reg Environ Chang 12(3):595–606
62. Simonovic PS (2002) World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources. J Environ Manage 66(3):249–267
63. Simonovic SP (2009) Managing water resources: methods and tools for a systems approach. UNESCO, Paris and Earthscan James & James, London
64. Simonovic SP, Fahmy H (1999) A new modelling approach for water resources policy analysis. Water Resour Res 35(1):295–304
65. Simonovic SP, Rajasekaram V (2004) Integrated analyses of Canada’s water resources: a system dynamics approach. Can Water Resour J 29(4):223–250
66. Stave KA (2003) A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada. J Environ Manage 67:303–313
67. Sterman JD (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin McGraw-Hill, Boston
68. SWEI (2005) Water transfer plan for Yulin city in the future. Shaanxi Province Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design (SWEI), Shaanxi, China
69. Tian L, Zhang H, Zhang X (2009) A system dynamics approach for economic developing zone water demand forecasting: a case study of Tianjin linkong area. J Tianjin Polytech Univ 28(3):68–72
70. UNEP (2000) The urban environment: facts and figures. UNEP Ind Environ 23(2):4–11
71. van Dam JC (1999) Impacts of climate change and climate variability on hydrological regimes. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge
72. Walton B, Nawarathna B, George BA, Malano HM (2009) Future water supply and demand assessment in peri-urban catchments using system dynamics approach. Paper presented at the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Interfacing Modelling and Simulation with Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Proceedings, 3872–3878
73. Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Liu JF et al (2009) Water demand management instead of water supply management: a case study of Yulin City in northwestern China, Proceedings of JS. 3 at the Joint IAHS & IAH Convention, Hyderabad, India, September 2009. IAHS Publ 330:340–346
74. Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Liu JF et al (2011) Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city. Environ Dev Sustain 13:331–351
75. Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Shahid S et al (2012a) Gini coefficint to assess equity in domestic water supply in the Yellow River. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17:65–75
76. Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Shahid S et al (2012b) Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9352-4
77. Winz I, Brierley G, Trowsdale S (2009) The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water Resour Manag 23(7):1301–1323
78. Xu Z-X, Takeuchi K, Ishidaira H, Qhang X-W (2002) Sustainability analysis for Yellow River water resources using the system dynamics approach. Water Resour Manag 16(3):239–261
79. Xu Y, Zhao Z, Luo Y, Gao X (2005) Climate change projections for the 21st century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES scenarios. Acta Meteorol Sin 19(407):417
80. Yu C-H, Chen C-H, Lin C-F (2003) Development of system dynamics model for sustainable land use management. J Chin Inst Eng 26(5):607–618
81. Zhai C, Zhang H, Zhang X (2009) Application of system dynamics in the forecasting water resources demand in Tianjin polytechnic university. Paper presented at the 2009 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, AICI 2009, 1 273–276
82. Zhang H (2005) Strategic study for water management in China. Southeast University Press, Nanjing
83. Zhou Y, Richard SJ (2005) Water use in China’s domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors: an empirical analysis (12 June 2005), 12. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.175.6013
84. Zhou SL, McMahona TA, Waltonb A, Lewisb J (2000) Forecasting daily urban water demand: a case study of Melbourne. J Hydrol 236:153–164