Forecasting hurricane-induced power outage durations

Natural Hazards

Volumn 74, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 1795-1811

  Nateghi, Roshanak ^a,b   Guikema, Seth D ^a   Quiring, Steven M ^c  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE   (United States)

^c TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Data mining; Hurricanes; Power outages; Power restoration; Random forests

Indexed keywords

EID: 84918523543     PISSN: 0921030X     EISSN: 15730840     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1270-9     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Breiman L (2001) Random forests. Mach Learn 45:5-32
2. Brown RE, Gupta S, Christie RD, Venkata SS, Fletcher R (1997) Distribution system reliability assessment: momentary interruptions and storms. IEEE Trans Power Deliv 12(4):1569-1575
3. Cutler DR, Edwards TC Jr, Beard KH, Cutler A, Hess KT, Gibson J, Lawler JJ (2007) Random forests for classification in ecology. Ecology 88(11):2783-2792
4. Davidson RA, Liu H, Sarpong IK, Sparks P, Rosowsky DV (2003) Electric power distribution system performance in Carolina hurricanes. Nat Hazards Rev 4(1):36-45
5. De'Ath G (2007) Boosted trees for ecological modeling and prediction. Ecology 88(1):243-251
6. Friedman JH (2001) Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine. Ann Stat 29(5):1189-1232
7. Guikema SD (2009) Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: an approach based on statistical learning theory. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(4):855-860
8. Guikema SD, Quiring SM, Han SR (2010) Pre-storm estimation of hurricane damage to electric power distribution systems. Risk Anal 30(12):1744-1752
9. Han SR, Guikema SD, Quiring SM, Lee K, Rosowsky D, Davidson RA (2009a) Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94(2):199-210
10. Han SR, Guikema SD, Quiring SM (2009b) Improving the predictive accuracy of hurricane power outage forecasts using generalized additive models. Risk Anal 29(10):1443-1453
11. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J (2011) The elements of statistical learning; data mining, inference and prediction, 2nd edn. Springer, New York Impact Weather: www.impactweather.com. Last accessed 28 June 2010 at 12:00 pm
12. Joshi NN, Lambert JH (2011) Diversification of engineering infrastructure investments for emergent and unknown non-systematic risks. J Risk Res 14(4):1466-4461
13. Lambert JH, Tsang J, Thekdi S (2013) Risk-informed investment for tropical cyclone preparedness of highway signs, signals, and lights. ASCE J Infrastruct Syst 19(4):384-394
14. Lubkeman D, Julian DE (2004) Large scale storm outage management. IEEE Power Eng Soc Gen Meet 1:16-22
15. Liu H, Davidson RA, Apanasovich TV (2007) Statistical forecasting of electric power restoration times in hurricanes and ice storms. IEEE Trans Power Syst 22(4):2270-2279
16. Nateghi R (2012) Modeling hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin and reliability of power distribution systems impacted by hurricanes in the U.S. Ph.D. thesis, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, 2012
17. Nateghi R, Guikema SD, Quiring SM (2013) Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricane. Risk Anal 31(12):1897-1906
18. NLCD (2001) http://www.epa.gov/mrlc/nlcd-2001.html. Last accessed in 29 Jan 2010
19. Quiring SM, Zhu L, Guikema S (2011) Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling power system outages due to hurricanes. Nat Hazards 58:365-390. doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9672-9
20. Reed DA (2008) Electric utility distribution analysis for extreme winds. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 96(1):123-140
21. Reed DA, Nojima N, Park J (2003) Performance assessment of lifelines. 16th ASCE Engineering Mechanics Conference, 16-18 July, Washington, Seattle
22. Shortridge JE, Guikema SD (2014) Public health and pipe breaks in water distribution systems: analysis with internet search volume as a proxy. Water Res 53:26-34
23. Thomas I (1996) Spatial data aggregation: exploratory analysis of road accidents. J Accid Anal Prev 28(2):251-264
24. Yule E, Kendall M (1950) An introduction to the theory of statistics, 14th edn. Charles Griffin, London
25. Zhu D, Cheng D, Broadwater RP, Scirbona C (2007) Storm modeling for prediction of power distribution system outages. J Electr Power Syst Res 77(8):973-979