Sensitivity and resilience of the climate system: A conditional nonlinear optimization approach

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation

Volumn 22, Issue 1-3, 2015, Pages 13-22

  Dijkstra, H A ^a   Viebahn, J P ^a  

^a UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Bifurcation; Climate sensitivity; Nonlinear stability; Resilience

Indexed keywords

BIFURCATION (MATHEMATICS); NONLINEAR PROGRAMMING;

BIFURCATION; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; CLIMATE STATE; CLIMATE SYSTEM; NON-LINEAR OPTIMIZATION; NON-LINEAR RESPONSE; NON-LINEAR STABILITIES; NON-STATIONARY BACKGROUNDS; OPTIMIZATION APPROACH; RESILIENCE;

CLIMATE MODELS;

EID: 84916624617     PISSN: 10075704     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.09.015     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. IPCC, 2013, Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis, in: T.F. Stocker, et al. (Eds), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, 2013. Available from .
2. Rohling E., Sluys A., Dijkstra H.A., Von der Heydt A.S., Köhler P., Van de Wal R. and the PALAEOSENSE team, Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature 2013, 491(7426):683-691.
3. Charney J.G. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment 1979, National Academy of Science, Washington DC.
4. Knutti R. The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geosci. 2008, 1:735-743.
5. Pierrehumbert R.T. Principles of Planetary Climate 2012, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
6. Roe G.H., Baker M.B. Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?. Science 2007, 318(5850):629-632.
7. Zaliapin I., Ghil M. Another look at climate sensitivity. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 2010, 17(2):113-122.
8. Ghil M. A mathematical theory of climate sensitivity. World Sci. Res. 2013, 1:735-743.
9. Thuburn J. Climate sensitivities via a Fokker-Planck adjoint approach. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2005, 131(605):73-92.
10. F. Ragone, V. Lucarini, F. Lunkeit, A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction, arXiv: arxiv:1403.4908.
11. Joseph D.D. Stability of Fluid Motions 1976, Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg, Germany.
12. Mu M., Duan W. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 2003, 2003:493-501.
13. Kerswell R.R. Recent progress in understanding the transition to turbulence in a pipe. Nonlinearity 2005, 18(6):R17-R44.
14. Pringle C.C.T., Kerswell R.R. Using nonlinear transient growth to construct the minimal seed for shear flow turbulence. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2010, 105(15):154502.
15. Wang Q., Mu M., Dijkstra H.A. The similarity between optimal precursor and optimally growing initial error in prediction of Kuroshio large meander and its application to targeted observation. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 2013, 118(2):869-884.
16. Holling C.S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 1973, 1-23.
17. B. Walker, C.S. Hollin, S.R. Carpenter, A. Kinzig, Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems, Ecology and Society 2004;9(2).
18. Walker B., Salt D. Resilience Thinking 2006, Island Press, Washington DC.
19. Farrell B.F., Ioannou P.J. Generalized stability theory: part I: autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci. 1996, 53:2025-2040.
20. Mu M. Nonlinear singular vectors and nonlinear singular values. Sci. China Ser. D-Earth Sci. 2000, 43:375-385.
21. Mu M., Liang S., Dijkstra H.A. The sensitivity and stability of the ocean's thermohaline circulation to finite amplitude perturbations. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 2004, 34:2305-2315.
22. Budyko M.I. The effect of solar radiations on the climate on the Earth. Tellus 1969, 21:611-619.
23. Sellers W.D. A global climate model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1969, 8:392-400.
24. Hogg A.M. Glacial cycles and carbon dioxide: a conceptual model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, 35(1):L01701.
25. Ghil M., Childress S. Topics in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics: Atmospheric Dynamics, Dynamo Theory, and Climate Dynamics 1987, Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg/New York.
26. van Scheltinga A.D.T., Dijkstra H.A. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations of the double-gyre ocean circulation. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 2008, 15(5):727-734.
27. Zu Z., Mu M., Dijkstra H.A. Optimal nonlinear excitation of decadal variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Chin. J. Oceanol. Limnol. 2013, 31(6):1368-1374.
28. Yin X., Wang B., Liu J., Tan X. Evaluation of conditional non-linear optimal perturbation obtained by an ensemble-based approach using the Lorenz-63 model. Tellus Ser. A-Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 2014, 66:373.
29. McDonald S.W., Grebogi C., Ott E., Yorke J.A. Fractal basin boundaries. Phys. D-Nonlinear Phenom. 1985, 17(2):125-153.
30. Navarra A., Tribbia J., Conti G. The path integral formulation of climate dynamics. PLoS ONE 2013, 8(6):e67022.