Modelling reporting delays for outbreak detection in infectious disease data

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

Volumn 178, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 205-222

  Noufaily, Angela ^a   Ghebremichael Weldeselassie, Yonas ^a   Enki, Doyo Gragn ^a   Garthwaite, Paul ^a   Andrews, Nick ^b   Charlett, André ^b   Farrington, Paddy ^a  

^a OPEN UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Delay; Hazard; Infectious disease; Penalized likelihood; Spline; Surveillance

Indexed keywords

EID: 84916593915     PISSN: 09641998     EISSN: 1467985X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12055     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Bacchetti, P. (1996) Reporting delays of deaths with AIDS in the United States. J. Acq. Immun. Defic. Synd. Hum. Retrovir., 13, 363-367.
2. Brookmeyer, R. and Damiano, A. (1989) Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence. Statist. Med., 8, 23-34.
3. Brookmeyer, R. and Gail, M. (1988) A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the Aids epidemic. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 83, 301-308.
4. Brookmeyer, R. and Liao, J. (1990) The analysis of delays in disease reporting: methods and results for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Am. J. Epidem., 122, 355-365.
5. Cui, J. and Kaldor, J. (1998) Changing pattern of delays in reporting AIDS diagnoses in Australia. Aust. New Zeal. J. Publ. Hlth, 22, 432-435.
6. Deuffic, S. and Costagliola, D. (1999) Is the AIDS incubation time changing?: a back-calculation approach. Statist. Med., 18, 1031-1047.
7. Enki, D. G., Noufaily, A., Garthwaite, P. H., Andrews, N. J., Charlett, A. and Farrington, C. P. (2013) Automated biosurveillance data from England and Wales, 1991 - 2011. Emergng Infect. Dis., 19, 35-42.
8. Farrington, C. P., Andrews, N. J., Beale, A. D. and Catchpole, M. A. (1996) A statistical algorithm for the early detection of outbreaks of infectious disease. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 159, 547-563.
9. Gebhardt, M. D., Neuenschwander, B. E. and Zwahlen, M. (1998) Adjusting AIDS incidence for non-stationary reporting delays: a necessity for country comparisons. Eur. J. Epidem., 14, 595-603.
10. Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie, Y., Whitaker, H. J. and Farrington, C. P. (2012) Self-controlled case series method with smooth age effect. Technical Report 12/07.The Open University, Milton Keynes. (Available from http://statistics.open.ac.uk/.)
11. Harris, J. E. (1990) Reporting delays and the incidence of AIDS. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 85, 915-924.
12. Joly, P., Commenges, D. and Letenneur, L. (1998) A penalized likelihood approach for arbitrarily censored and truncated data: application to age-specific incidence of dementia. Biometrics, 54, 185-194.
13. Jones, G., Le Hello, S., Jourdan-da Silva, N., Vaillant, V., de Valk, H., Weill, F.-X. and Le Strat, Y. (2014) The French human salmonella surveillance system: evaluation of timeliness of laboratory reporting and factors associated with delays, 2007 to 2011.Eurosurveillance, 14, no. 1.
14. Kalbfleisch, J. D. and Lawless, J. F. (1989) Inference based on retrospective ascertainment: an analysis of data on transfusion related to AIDS. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 84, 360-372.
15. Lawless, J. F. (1994) Adjustments for reporting delays and the prediction of occurred but not reported events. Can. J. Statist., 22, 15-31.
16. McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. A. (1989) Generalized Linear Models, 2nd edn. London: Chapman and Hall.
17. Midthune, D. N., Fay, M. P., Clegg, L. X. and Feuer, E. J. (2005) Modelling reporting delays and reporting corrections in Cancer registry data. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 100, 61-70.
18. Noufaily, A., Enki, D. G., Farrington, P., Garthwaite, P., Andrews, N. and Charlett, A. (2013) An improved algorithm for outbreak detection in multiple surveillance systems. Statist. Med., 32, 1206-1222.
19. O'Neill, P. D., Balding, D. J., Becker, N. G., Eerola, M. and Mollison, D. (2000) Analyses of infectious disease data from household outbreaks by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Appl. Statist., 49, 517-542.
20. O'Sullivan, F. (1988) Fast computation of fully automated log-density and log-hazard estimators. SIAM J. Scient. Statist. Comput., 9, 363-379.
21. Ramsay, J. O. (1988) Monotone regression splines in action. Statist. Sci., 3, 425-461.
22. Sartwell, P. E. (1966) The incubation period and the dynamics of infectious disease. Am. J. Epidem., 83, 204-216.
23. Tabnak, F., Müller, H.-G., Wang, J.-L., Chiou, J.-M. and Sun, R. K. P. (2000) A change-point model for reporting delays under change of AIDS case definition. Eur. J. Epidem., 16, 1135-1141.
24. Zeger, S. L., See, L. and Diggle, P. J. (1989) Statistical methods for monitoring the AIDS epidemic. Statist. Med., 8, 3-21.