메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 41, Issue 20, 2014, Pages 7331-7342

Skill improvement from increased ensemble size and model diversity

Author keywords

forecast skill

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE;

EID: 84911381770     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060133     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (67)

References (31)
  • 1
    • 84884700195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A diagnostic comparison
    • Barnston, A. G., and, M. K. Tippett, (2013), Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A diagnostic comparison, Clim. Dyn., 41, 1-19, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1845-2.
    • (2013) Clim. Dyn. , vol.41 , pp. 1-19
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Tippett, M.K.2
  • 3
    • 77956636641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the weighting of multimodel ensembles in seasonal and short-range weather forecasting
    • Casanova, S., and, B. Ahrens, (2009), On the weighting of multimodel ensembles in seasonal and short-range weather forecasting, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3811-3822.
    • (2009) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 3811-3822
    • Casanova, S.1    Ahrens, B.2
  • 5
    • 27744599207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability and information theory. Part II: Imperfect forecasts
    • DelSole, T., (2005), Predictability and information theory. Part II: Imperfect forecasts, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3368-3381.
    • (2005) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.62 , pp. 3368-3381
    • Delsole, T.1
  • 6
    • 34447272040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian framework for multimodel regression
    • DelSole, T., (2007), A Bayesian framework for multimodel regression, J. Clim., 20, 2810-2826.
    • (2007) J. Clim. , vol.20 , pp. 2810-2826
    • Delsole, T.1
  • 8
    • 84873321859 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting?
    • DelSole, T., X. Yang, and, M. K. Tippett, (2012), Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting?, Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc., 139, 176-183, doi: 10.1002/qj.1961.
    • (2012) Q. J. R. Meteorolog. Soc. , vol.139 , pp. 176-183
    • Delsole, T.1    Yang, X.2    Tippett, M.K.3
  • 9
    • 84885347340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale-selective ridge regression for multimodel forecasting
    • DelSole, T., L. Jia, and, M. K. Tippett, (2013), Scale-selective ridge regression for multimodel forecasting, J. Clim., 26, 7957-7965.
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26 , pp. 7957-7965
    • Delsole, T.1    Jia, L.2    Tippett, M.K.3
  • 10
    • 84906871926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do seasonal-todecadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?
    • Eade, R., D. Smith, A. Scaife, E. Wallace, N. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, and, N. Robinson, (2014), Do seasonal-todecadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5620-5628, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061146.
    • (2014) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.41 , pp. 5620-5628
    • Eade, R.1    Smith, D.2    Scaife, A.3    Wallace, E.4    Dunstone, N.5    Hermanson, L.6    Robinson, N.7
  • 11
    • 18544371178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
    • Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and, T. N. Palmer, (2005), The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting-I. Basic concept, Tellus A, 57 (3), 219-233, doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x.
    • (2005) Tellus A , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 219-233
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 12
    • 32444436651 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Examination of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction methods using a simple climate system
    • Kang, I. -S., and, J. Yoo, (2006), Examination of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction methods using a simple climate system, Clim. Dyn., 26, 285-294.
    • (2006) Clim. Dyn. , vol.26 , pp. 285-294
    • Kang, I.-S.1    Yoo, J.2
  • 13
    • 0036539312 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles
    • Kharin, V. V., and, F. W. Zwiers, (2002), Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles, J. Clim., 15, 793-799.
    • (2002) J. Clim. , vol.15 , pp. 793-799
    • Kharin, V.V.1    Zwiers, F.W.2
  • 14
    • 70350780686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS
    • Kirtman, B. P., and, D. Min, (2009), Multimodel ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 2908-2930.
    • (2009) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 2908-2930
    • Kirtman, B.P.1    Min, D.2
  • 15
    • 84885653293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 seasonal to interannual prediction, Phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal prediction
    • Kirtman, B. P., et al. (2014), The North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 seasonal to interannual prediction, Phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 585-601.
    • (2014) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.95 , pp. 585-601
    • Kirtman, B.P.1
  • 17
    • 84862080414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of the nonstationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) version 2
    • Kumar, A., M. Chen, L. Zhang, W. Wang, Y. Xue, C. Wen, L. Marx, and, B. Huang, (2012), An analysis of the nonstationarity in the bias of sea surface temperature forecasts for the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) version 2, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3003-3016.
    • (2012) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.140 , pp. 3003-3016
    • Kumar, A.1    Chen, M.2    Zhang, L.3    Wang, W.4    Xue, Y.5    Wen, C.6    Marx, L.7    Huang, B.8
  • 19
    • 0033843285 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: Skill scores and dynamic features
    • Pavan, V., and, J. Doblas-Reyes, (2000), Multimodel seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: Skill scores and dynamic features, Clim. Dyn., 16, 611-625.
    • (2000) Clim. Dyn. , vol.16 , pp. 611-625
    • Pavan, V.1    Doblas-Reyes, J.2
  • 20
    • 60749103232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consolidation of multimodel forecasts by ridge regression: Application to Pacific surface temperature
    • Peña, M., and, H. van den Dool, (2008), Consolidation of multimodel forecasts by ridge regression: Application to Pacific surface temperature, J. Clim., 21, 6521-6538.
    • (2008) J. Clim. , vol.21 , pp. 6521-6538
    • Peña, M.1    Dool Den H.Van2
  • 21
    • 36348948705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature
    • Reynolds, R., T. M. Smith, C. Liu, D. B. Chelton, K. S. Casey, and, M. G. Schlax, (2007), Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature, J. Clim., 20, 5473-5496.
    • (2007) J. Clim. , vol.20 , pp. 5473-5496
    • Reynolds, R.1    Smith, T.M.2    Liu, C.3    Chelton, D.B.4    Casey, K.S.5    Schlax, M.G.6
  • 22
    • 84896093136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP climate forecast system version 2
    • Saha, S., et al. (2014), The NCEP climate forecast system version 2, J. Clim., 27, 2185-2208.
    • (2014) J. Clim. , vol.27 , pp. 2185-2208
    • Saha, S.1
  • 23
    • 84880293705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments
    • Sansom, P. G., D. B. Stephenson, C. A. T. Ferro, G. Zappa, and, L. Shaffrey, (2013), Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments, J. Clim., 26 (12), 4017-4037.
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26 , Issue.12 , pp. 4017-4037
    • Sansom, P.G.1    Stephenson, D.B.2    Ferro, C.A.T.3    Zappa, G.4    Shaffrey, L.5
  • 27
    • 34547177691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
    • Tebaldi, C., and, R. Knutti, (2007), The use of multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2053-2075.
    • (2007) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.365 , pp. 2053-2075
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 28
    • 14544276393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations
    • Tebaldi, C., L. Mearns, D. Nychka, and, R. Smith, (2004), Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24213, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021276.
    • (2004) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.31 , pp. L24213
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Mearns, L.2    Nychka, D.3    Smith, R.4
  • 29
    • 0032577959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
    • Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N. -C. Lau, and, C. Ropelewski, (1998), Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,291-14,324.
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , pp. 14
    • Trenberth, K.E.1    Branstator, G.W.2    Karoly, D.3    Kumar, A.4    Lau, N.-C.5    Ropelewski, C.6
  • 31
    • 77955603386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections
    • Weigel, A. P., R. Knutti, M. A. Liniger, and, C. Appenzeller, (2010), Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections, J. Clim., 23, 4175-4191.
    • (2010) J. Clim. , vol.23 , pp. 4175-4191
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Knutti, R.2    Liniger, M.A.3    Appenzeller, C.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.