An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 14, Issue 10, 2014, Pages 2767-2781

  De Bruijn, K M ^a   Diermanse, F L M ^a   Beckers, J V L ^a  

^a DELTARES   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FLOOD WAVE; FLOODING; HYDRODYNAMICS; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; POLICY MAKING; RISK ASSESSMENT; RIVER DISCHARGE; STORM SURGE; WATER LEVEL;

NETHERLANDS; RHINE-MEUSE DELTA;

EID: 84908043088     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-14-2767-2014     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295-308, doi:10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004.
2. Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Influence of dike breaches on flood frequency estimation, Comput. Geosci., 35, 907-923, 2009.
3. Allaix D.L. and Carbone V. I.: An improvement of the response surface method, Struct. Saf., 33, 165-172, 2011.
4. Beckers, J. V. L. and De Bruijn, K. M.: Analyse van Slachtofferrisico's. Waterveiligheid 21e eeuw. Report 1204144-005, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, 2011.
5. Beckers, J., De Bruijn, K.M., and Riedstra, R.: Life safety criteria for flood protection standards, in: Floods: From Risk to Opportunity, IAHS Publ. 357, 21-25, 2012.
6. Dawson R.,Hal, J.: Adaptive importance sampling for risk analysis of complex infrastructure systems Proc. R. Soc. A 462, 3343-3362, 2006.
7. De Bruij n, K. M. and Diermanse, F. L. M.: A new method to assess societal flood risk. Developed for the riverrine area in the Netherlands, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, 2013.
8. De Bruijn K. M. and Klijn F.: Risky places i n the Netherlands: a first approximation for floods, J. Flood Risk Manage., 2, 58-67, 2009.
9. De Bruijn, K. M., Mens, M. J. P., and Klijn, F.: A method for developing long-term strategies for flood risk manage-ment, in: Flood risk management: Research and Practice, edited by: Samuels, P., Huntington, S., Allsop, W., and Harrop, J., Taylor & Francis group, London, UK, 142 pp., 2008.
10. De Bruijn K. M., Beckers J. and Van der Mo st H.: Casualty risks in the discussion on new flood protection standards in The Netherlands, in: Flood Recovery, Innovation and Response II, edited by: De Wrachien, D., Proverbs, D., Brebbia, C. A., Mambretti, S., WIT Press, 73-83, 2010.
11. De Bruijn, K. M., Klerk, W. J. and Diermanse, F.: Analyse groepsrisico's in Nederland t.b.v. de normeringsdiscussie, Report 1209190, Deltares, Delft, 2014 (in Dutch).
12. Den Heijer, F and D iermanse, F. L. M.: Towards risk-based assessment of flood defences in the Netherlands: an operational framework, In: Comprehensive Flood Risk Management: Research for Policy and Practice, proceedings of the FloodRisk 2012 conference in Rotterdam, Nov ember 2012, CRC Press, ISBN 9780415621441, 2012.
13. Dhondia, J. F. and Stelling, G. S.: Sobek one dimensional-two dimensional integrated hydraulic model for flood simulation-its capabilities and features explained, 6th Int ernational Conference on Hydroinformatics, Singapore, 21-26 June 2004.
14. Di Mauro, M. and De Bruijn, K. M .: Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss of life estimation in the assessment of flood risk, Nat. Hazards, 63, 1083-1113, doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0207-4, 2012.
15. Diermanse , F. L. M., De Bruijn, K. M. and Beckers, J.: Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in flood risk analysis, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., doi:10.1007/s00477-014-0921-4, online first, 2014.
16. Gouldby , B. P., Lhomme, J., McGahey, C., Panzeri, M., Hassan, M., Kakeh Burgada, N., Magaña Orue, C., Alvarez Diaz, C., Jamieson, S. R., Wright, G., Van Damme, M., and Morris, M.: A flood system risk analysis model with dynamic sub-element 2-D inundation model, dynamic breach growth and life-loss, in: Comprehensive Flood risk management, edited by: Klijn, F. and Scweckendiek, T., Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-62144-1, 655-662, 2013.
17. Hall, J. W., Sayers, P. B., and Dawson, R. J.: National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales, Nat. Hazards, 36, 147-164, 2005.
18. Hesselink, A.W., Stelling, G. S., Kwadijk, J. C. J., and Middelkoop, H.: Inundation of a Dutch river polder, sensitivity analysis of a physically based inundation model using historic data, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1234 p p., doi:10.1029/2002WR001334, 2003.
19. IMDC: Sigmaplan Maatschappelijke Kosten Baten Analyse, Deelopdracht 1, Faserapport 2: Nulalternatief: water-standen, overstromingskaarten, schade, slachtoffers en risico. IMDC rapport I/RA/ 14082/04.017, 2005.
20. Jongejan, R. B., Maaskant, B., Horst,W., Havinga, F. J., Roode, N., and Stefess, H.: The VNK2 project: a detailed, large-scale quantitative flood risk analysis for the Netherlands. Proceedin gs of the 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5), Tokyo-Japan, 27-29 September 2011.
21. Jonkman, S. N.: Fatality estimation in flood risk assessment, Theory and applications, PhD thesis TU Delft, Delft, the Netherlands, 2007.
22. Jonkman, B., Maaskant, B., and Jongejan, R.: Landsdekkende schattingen van slachtofferrisico's voor overstromingen. Vervolgstudie verkenning slachtofferrisico's in het hoogwaterbeschermingsbeleid, Projectn ummer: 9T2050.B0, 2008 (in Dutch).
23. Klijn, F, De Bruijn, K. M., Knoop, J., and Kwadijk, J.: Assessment of the Netherlands' Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change, Ambio, 41, 180-192, doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0193-x, 2012.
24. Klijn, F., Kolen, B., Knoop, J., Wagenaar, D., De Bruijn, K., and Bouwer, L.: Maatschappelijke ontwrichting door overstromingen voorkomen? Deltares Report 1208052, Delft, The Netherlands, 2013 (in Dutch).
25. Kok M., Huizinga H. J., Vrouwenvelder A. C., and Van den Braak W. E. M.: Standaardmethode 2005. Schade en slachtoffers als gevolg van overstromingen. Rapport 999.10, H KV Lijn inWater, Lelystad, the Netherlands, 2005 (in Dutch).
26. Kok, M. and Van der Doef, M.: Leidraad overstromingsberekeningen voor VNK2, 2008 (in Dutch).
27. Lalande, J. P.: The Influence of Xynthia o n Policy and Practice, FloodRisk 2012: From science to practice, Rotterdam, November 2012, available at: www.floodrisk2012.net/documents/presentations/121121InfluenceXynthiapolicyandpractice.pdf, 2012.
28. Marchand M.,Buurman J.,Pribaid A.,Kurniawan, A.: Damage and casualties modelling as part of a vulnerability assessment for tsunami hazards: a case study from Aceh, Indonesia, J. Flood Risk Manage. 2 120-131 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01027.x 2009.
29. Maaskant, B., Jonkman, S. N., and Kok, M.: Analyse slachtofferaantallen VNK-2 en voorstellen voor aanpassingen van slachtofferfuncties. HKV Lijn in Water Rapport PR1669.10, Delft, the Netherlands, 2009 a (in Dutch).
30. Maaskant, B., Kolen, B., Jongejan, R., Jonkman, S., and Kok, M.: Evacuatieschattingen Nederland. Rapport PR1718.10. HKV Lijn in Water, Delft. The Netherlands, 2009b (in Dutch).
31. Ministerie van Verkeer and Waterstaat: Hydraulische Randvoorwaarden primaire waterkeringen voor de derde toetsronde 2006-2011, Den Haag, the Netherlands, 2007 (in Dutch).
32. Ministerie van Verkeer and Waterstaat: Het Nationaal Waterplan, Beleidsnota, 279 pp., 2009 (in Dutch).
33. Olson, K. R. and Morton, L.W.: The effects of 2011 Ohio and Mississippi river valley flooding on Cairo, Illinois, area, J. SoilWater Conserv., 67, 42A-46A, 2012.
34. Penning-Rowsell, E., Floyd, P., Ramsbottom, D., and Surendran, S.: Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: a deterministic framework, Nat. Hazards, 36, 43-64, 2005.
35. Sayers, P. B., Hall, J. W., Rosu, C., Chatterton, J. B., and Deakin, R.: Risk assessment of flood and coastal defences for strategic planning (RASP)-A high level methodology, in: DEFRA Conference of Coastal and River Engineers, Keel University, UK, 2002.
36. Steenackers G., Presezniak, F., and Guillaume P.: Development of an adaptive response surface method for optimization of computation-intensive models, Comput. Ind. Eng., 57, 847-855, 2009.
37. Steenbergen, H. M. G. M., Lassing, B. L., Vrouwenvelder, A. C. W. M., Waarts, and P. H. : Reliability analysis of flood defence systems., HERON, 49, 51-73, 2004.
38. US Departmen t of the Interior: Dam safety public protection guidelines. A risk framework to support dam safety decision-making, Denver, Colorado, 2011.
39. Van der Meij. R.: Overhoogte in Rijnmond-Drechtsteden, Bepaling gebieden waar overhoogte als oversterkte mag worden beschouwd, Deltares in opdracht van Rijkswaterstaat, 2013 (in Dutch).
40. Van der Meij, R. and Lopez de la Cruz, J.: Automated determination of flood risk through fragility, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2013, EGU2013-3219, 2013.
41. Van der Most, H., Tánczos, I., De Bruijn, K. M., Wagenaar, D.: New Riskbased standards for flood protection in the Netherlands, in: Proceedings of the ICFM6 conference 16-18 September, Sao Paulo, Brasil, 2014.
42. Van Mierlo, M. C. L. M., Vrouwenvelder, A. C. W. M., Calle, E. OF., Vrijling. J. K., Jonkman, S. N., De Bruijn, K. M., and Weerts, A. H.: Assessment of floods risk accounting for River System Behaviour, Int. J. Ri ver Basin Manage., 5, 93-104, 2007.
43. Verheij, H.: Aanpassen van het bresgroeimodel in HIS-OM: bureaustudie, Reprot Q3299, WL, Delft Hydraulics, Delft, the Netherlands, 2003.
44. Vorogushyn, S., Merz, B., Lindenschmidt, K.-E., and Apel, H.: A new methodology for flood hazard assessment considering dike breaches, Water Resour. Res., 46, W08541, doi:10.1029/2009WR008475, 2010.
45. Vorogushyn, S., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: Analysis of a detention basin impact on dike failure probabilities an flood risk for a channel-dike-floodplain system along the river Elbe, Germany, J. Hydrol., 436-437, 120-131, 2012.
46. Vrijling, J.K, van Hengel, W., and Houben, R. J.: A framework for risk evaluation, J. Hazard. Mater. 43, 245-261, 1995.
47. Vrouwenvelder A. C. W. M., Van Mierlo, M. C. L. M., Calle, E. O. F., Markus, A. A., Schweckendiek, T., and Courage, W. M. G.: Risk analyis for flood protection systems. Main report, TNO and Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands, 2010.