The impact of climate change, human interference, scale and modeling uncertainties on the estimation of aquifer properties and river flow components

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 519, Issue PB, 2014, Pages 1297-1314

  Santos, R M B ^a,b   Sanches Fernandes, L F ^a,b   Moura, J P ^b,c   Pereira, M G ^b,d   Pacheco, F A L ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TRÁS OS MONTES AND ALTO DOURO   (Portugal)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TRÁS OS MONTES AND ALTO DOURO   (Portugal)

^c INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING   (Portugal)

^d UNIVERSITY OF LISBON   (Portugal)

Author keywords

Aquifer properties; Catchment modeling; Climate change; Human interference; River flow components; Scale

Indexed keywords

AERODYNAMICS; AQUIFERS; CATCHMENTS; ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION; FLOW OF WATER; GEOCHRONOLOGY; GROUNDWATER; GROUNDWATER FLOW; GROUNDWATER RESOURCES; HYDRAULIC EQUIPMENT; HYDRAULIC MACHINERY; HYDROGEOLOGY; HYDROLOGY; LAKES; RIVERS; RUNOFF; STREAM FLOW; SURFACE WATERS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATERSHEDS;

AQUIFER PROPERTIES; CATCHMENT MODELING; HUMAN INTERFERENCE; RIVER FLOW; SCALE;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; AQUIFER CHARACTERIZATION; CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; DAM CONSTRUCTION; HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY; HYDROLOGICAL CHANGE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; RIVER FLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER TABLE;

BECA BASIN; PORTUGAL;

EID: 84907977279     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.001     Document Type: Article

References (105)

1. Ajami H., Troch P.A., Maddock T., Meixner T., Eastoe C. Quantifying mountain block recharge by means of catchment-scale storage-discharge relationships. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 45(W02429):14p.
2. Ambroise B., Beven K.J., Freer J. Toward a generalization of the TOPMODEL concepts: topographic indices of hydrological similarity. Water Resour. Res. 1996, 32:2135-2145.
3. Andersen H.E., Kronvang B., Larsen S.E., Hoffmann C.C., Jensen T.S., Rasmussen E.K. Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin. Sci. Total Environ. 2006, 365:223-237.
4. ASCE Hydrology Handbook 1996, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York. second edition.
5. Biswal B., Kumar D.N. What mainly controls recession flows in river basins?. Adv. Water Resour. 2014, 65:25-33.
6. Biswal B., Marani M. Geomorphological origin of recession curves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2010, 37(L24403):5p.
7. Biswal B., Marani M. Universal recession curves and their geomorphological interpretation. Adv. Water Resour. 2014, 65:34-42.
8. Boussinesq J. Sur le débit, en temps de sécheresse, d'une source alimentée par une nappe d'eaux d'infiltration. C.R. Hebd. Seanc. Acad. Sci. Paris 1903, 136:1511-1517.
9. Boussinesq J. Recherches théoriques sur l'écoulement des nappes d'eau infiltrées dans le sol et sur débit de sources. J. Math. Pures Appl. 1904, 10:5-78.
10. Boyer C., Chaumont D., Chartier I., Roy A.G. Impact of climate change on the hydrology of St. Lawrence tributaries. J. Hydrol. 2010, 384:65-83.
11. Bozkurt D., Sen O.L. Climate change impacts in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. J. Hydrol. 2013, 480:149-161.
12. Brandão C., Rodrigues R., Costa J. Análise de fenómenos extremos, precipitações intensas em Portugal Continental 2001, Direcção de Serviços de Recursos Hídricos do Instituto da Água, Lisbon, Portugal.
13. Brutsaert W. Long-term groundwater storage trends estimated from streamflow records: climatic perspective. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44(W02409):7p.
14. Brutsaert W. The unit response of groundwater outflow from a hillslope. Water Resour. Res. 1994, 34:233-240.
15. Brutsaert W., Lopez J.P. Basin-scale geohydrologic drought flow features of riparian aquifers of the southern Great Plains. Water Resour. Res. 1998, 30:2759-2763.
16. Brutsaert W., Nieber J.L. Regionalized drought flow hydrographs from a mature glaciated plateau. Water Resour. Res. 1977, 13:637-643.
17. Caetano, M., Nunes, V., Nunes, A., 2009. CORINE Land Cover 2006 for Continental Portugal. Technical Report, Instituto Geográfico Português, Lisbon, Portyugal.
18. Cardenas M.B. Stream-aquifer interactions and hyporheic exchange in gaining and losing sinuous streams. Water Resour. Res. 2009, 45(W06429):13p.
19. Carlsson A., Olsson T. Hydraulic properties of Swedish crystalline rocks-hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth. Bull. Geol. Inst. Univ. Uppsala 1977, 71-84.
20. Chen J., Brissette F.P., Leconte R. Uncertainty of downscaling method in quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrology. J. Hydrol. 2011, 40:190-202.
21. Chen X., Yang X., Dong X., Liu E. Environmental changes in Chaohu Lake (southeast, China) since the mid 20th century: the interactive impacts of nutrients, hydrology and climate. Limnologica 2013, 43:10-17.
22. Chen Z., Grasby S.E., Osadetz K.G. Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, southern Manitoba. Canada. J. Hydrol. 2004, 290(1-2):43-62.
23. Clark M.P., Rupp D.E., Woods R.A., Tromp-van Meerveld H.J., Peters N.E., Freer J.E. Consistency between hydrological models and field observations: linking processes at the hillslope scale to hydrological responses at the watershed scale. Hydrol. Process. 2009, 23:311-319.
24. Dai Z., Liu J.T. Impacts of large dams on downstream fluvial sedimentation: an example of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the Changjiang (Yangtze River). J. Hydrol. 2013, 480:10-18.
25. DHI, 2013. MIKE BASIN User Manual. Hørsholm, Denmark.
26. Di Piazza A., Lo Conti F., Noto L.V., Viola F., La Loggia G. Comparative analysis of different techniques for spatial interpolation of rainfall data to create a serially complete monthly time series of precipitation for Sicily, Italy. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 2011, 13:396-408.
27. Ershadi, A., Khiaba, H., Lørup, J.K., 2005. Applications of Remote Sensing, GIS and River Basin Modelling in Integrated Water Resource Management of Kabul River Basin. ICID 21st European Regional Conference, Frankfurt (Oder) and Slubice - Germany and Poland.
28. ESRI, 2010. ArcMap (version 10). New York St., Redlands, USA.
29. ESRI, 2012. ArcHydro Tools for ArcGIS 10 - Tutorial. New York St., Redlands, USA.
30. Figueiredo, O., 2006. O Clima de Portugal nos séculos XX e XXI. In: Santos, F.D., Miranda, P. (Eds.) Alterações climáticas em Portugal. Cenários impactos e medidas de adaptação. Project SIAM II, Gradiva, Lisbon, pp. 47-113.
31. Facchi A., Ortuani D., Maggi D., Gandolfi C. Coupled SVAT-groundwater model for water resources simulation in irrigated alluvial plains. Environ. Modell. Software 2004, 19:1053-1063.
32. Gao B., Yang D., Yang H. Impact of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in the middle and lower Yangtze River. Quatern. Int. 2013, 304:43-50.
33. Green T.R., Taniguchi M., Kooi H., Gurdak J.J., Allen D.M., Hiscock K.M., Treidel H., Aureli A. Beneath the surface of global change: impacts of climate change on groundwater. J. Hydrol. 2011, 405:532-560.
34. Grillakis M.G., Koutroulis A.G., Tsanis I.K. Climate change impact on the hydrology of Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario. Canada. J. Hydrol. 2011, 409:1-19.
35. Guo H., Hu Q., Zhang Q., Feng S. Effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Yangtze River flow and river interaction with Poyang Lake, China: 2003-2008. J. Hydrol. 2012, 416-417:19-27.
36. Holman I.P. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge-uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?. Hydrogeol. J. 2006, 14(5):637-647.
37. IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J.V.D. Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
38. Ireson A., Makropoulos C., Maksimovic C. Water resources modelling under data scarcity: coupling MIKE BASIN and ASM groundwater model. Water Resour. Manage 2006, 20:567-590.
39. Jiang T., Chen Y.D., Xu C., Chen X., Chen X., Singh V.P. Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J. Hydrol. 2007, 336:316-333.
40. Kienzle S.W., Nemeth M.W., Byrne J.M., MacDonald R.J. Simulating the hydrological impacts of climate change in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta. Canada. J. Hydrol. 2012, 412-413:76-89.
41. Kirchner J.W. Catchments as simple dynamical systems: catchment characterization, rainfall-runoff modeling, and doing hydrology backward. Water Resour. Res. 2009, 45(W02429):34p.
42. Kuhn N.J., Baumhauer R., Chütt B. Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain. J. Environ. Manage. 2011, 92:275-283.
43. Laroque M., Mangin A., Razack M., Banton O. Contribution of correlation and spectral analyses to the regional study of a large karst aquifer (Charente, France). J. Hydrol. 1998, 205(3-4):217-231.
44. Legesse D., Vallet-Coulomba C., Gasse F. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia. J. Hydrol. 2003, 275:67-85.
45. Li Z., Liu W., Zhang X., Zheng F. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. J. Hydrol. 2009, 377:35-42.
46. Luo Y., Ficklin D.L., Liu X., Zhang M. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach. Sci. Total Environ. 2013, 450-451:72-82.
47. Madsen H., Wilson G., Ammentorp H.C. Comparison of different automated strategies for calibration of rainfall runoff models. J. Hydrol. 2002, 261:48-59.
48. Makungo R., Odiyo J.O., Ndiritu J.G., Mwaka B. Rainfall-runoff modelling approach for ungauged catchments: a case study of Nzhelele River sub-quaternary catchment. Phys. Chem. Earth 2010, 35:596-607.
49. Malvicini C.F., Steenhuis T.S., Walter M.T., Parlange J.-Y., Walter M.F. Evaluation of spring flow in the uplands of Matalom, Leyte. Philippines. Adv. Water Resour. 2005, 28:1083-1090.
50. Marston R.A., Mills J.D., Wrazien D.R., Bassett B., Splinter D.K. Effects of Jackson Lake Dam on the Snake River and its floodplain, Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA. Geomorphology 2005, 71:79-98.
51. Matondo J.I., Peter G., Msibi K.M. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland: Part I. Phys. Chem. Earth 2004, 29:1181-1191.
52. Matondo J.I., Peter G., Msibi K.M. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland: Part II. Phys. Chem. Earth 2004, 29:1193-1202.
53. Mauser W., Bach H. PROMET - large scale distributed hydrological modelling to study the impact of climate change on the water flows of mountain watersheds. J. Hydrol. 2009, 376:362-377.
54. Mendoza G.F., Steenhuis T.S., Walter M.T., Parlange J.Y. Estimating basin-wide hydraulic parameters of a semi-arid mountainous watershed by recession flow analysis. J. Hydrol. 2003, 279:57-69.
55. Menzel L., Bürger G. Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). J. Hydrol. 2002, 267:53-64.
56. Merritt W.S., Alila Y., Barton M., Taylor B., Cohen S., Neilsen D. Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia. J. Hydrol. 2006, 326:79-108.
57. Nan Y., Bao-hui M., Chun-kun L. Impact analysis of climate change on water resources. Procedia Eng. 2011, 24:643-648.
58. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models Part I - a discussion of the principles. J. Hydrol. 1970, 10(3):282-290.
59. New M., Hulme M., Jones P. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II. Development of 1901 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J. Clim. 2000, 13:2217-2238.
60. Oyarzún R., Godoy R., Núñez J., Fairley J.P., Oyarzún J., Maturana H., Freixas G. Recession flow analysis as a suitable tool for hydrogeological parameter determination in steep, arid basins. J. Arid Environ. 2014, 105:1-11.
61. Pacheco F.A.L., Van der Weijden C.H. Weathering of plagioclase across variable flow and solute transport regimes. J. Hydrol. 2012, 420-421:46-58.
62. Pacheco F.A.L., Van der Weijden C.H. Integrating topography, hydrology and rock structure in weathering rate models of spring watersheds. J. Hydrol. 2012, 428-429:32-50.
63. Pacheco F.A.L., Van der Weijden C.H. Role of hydraulic diffusivity in the decrease of weathering rates over time. J. Hydrol. 2014, 512:87-106.
64. Pacheco F.A.L., Van der Weijden C.H. Modeling rock weathering in small watersheds. Submitted to J. Hydrol. 2014, 513C:13-27.
65. Palmroth S., Katul G.G., Hui D., McCarthy H., Jackson R.B., Oren R. Estimation of long-term basin scale evapotranspiration from streamflow time series. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 46(W10512):13p.
66. Petts G.E., Gurnell A.M. Dams and geomorphology: research progress and future directions. Geomorphology 2005, 71:27-47.
67. Ramesh T.S.V., Chandramouli V. Improved weighting methods, deterministic and stochastic data-driven models for estimation of missing precipitation records. J. Hydrol. 2005, 312:191-206.
68. Ratigan, J.L., Burgess. A.S., Skiba, E.L., Carlwood, R., 1977. Groundwater movements around a repository. KBS Technical Report 54(5). KBS, Stockholm, 136p.
69. Riegels N., Jensen R., Bensasson L., Banou S., Møller F., Bauer-Gottwein P. Estimating resource costs of compliance with EU WFD ecological status requirements at the river basin scale. J. Hydrol. 2011, 396:197-214.
70. Rupp D.E., Selker J.S. Drainage of a horizontal Boussinesq aquifer with a power law hydraulic conductivity profile. Water Resour. Res. 2005, 41(W11422):8p.
71. Rupp D.E., Selker J.S. On the use of the Boussinesq equation for interpreting recession hydrographs from sloping aquifers. Water Resour. Res. 2006, 42(W12421):15.
72. Rupp D.E., Selker J.S. Information, artifacts, and noise in dQ/dt-Q recession analysis. Adv. Water Resour. 2006, 29:154-160.
73. Sanches Fernandes L.F., Santos C.M.M., Pereira A.P., Moura J.P. Model of management and decision support systems in the distribution of water for consumption - case study in North Portugal. Revue 2011, 15(3):411-426.
74. Sanches Fernandes L.F., Seixas F.J., Oliveira P.C., Leitão S., Moura J.P. Climate-change impacts on nitrogen in a hydrographical basin in the northeast of Portugal. Fresenius Environ. Bull. 2012, 21(12):3643-3650.
75. Serrat-Capdevila A., Valdéz J.B., Pérez J.G., Baird K., Mata L.J., Maddock T. Modeling climate change impacts - and uncertainty -on the hydrology of a riparian system: the San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora). J. Hydrol. 2007, 347:48-66.
76. Shaw S.B., Riha S.J. Examining individual recession events instead of a data cloud: using a modified interpretation of dQ/dt-Q streamflow recession in glaciated watersheds to better inform models of low flow. J. Hydrol. 2012, 434-435:46-54.
77. Staudinger M., Stahl K., Seibert J., Clark M.P., Tallaksen L.M. Comparison of hydrological model structures based on recession and low flow simulations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15:3447-3459.
78. Steele-Dunne S., Lynch P., McGrath R., Semmler T., Wang S., Hanafin J., Nolan P. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. J. Hydrol 2008, 356:28-45.
79. Stoelzle M., Stahl K., Weiler M. Are streamflow recession characteristics really characteristic?. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2012, 9:10563-10593.
80. Szilagyi J. Vadose zone influences on aquifer parameter estimates of saturated-zone hydraulic theory. J. Hydrol 2004, 286:78-86.
81. Szilagyi J., Parlange M.B. A geomorphology-based semi-distributed watershed model. Ad. Water Resour. 1999, 23:177-187.
82. Thomas B.F., Vogel R.M., Kroll C.N., Famiglietti J.S. Estimation of the base flow recession constant under human interference. Water Resour. Res. 2013, 49:7366-7379.
83. Tisseuil C., Vrac M., Grenouillet G., Wade A.J., Gevrey M., Oberdorff T., Grodwohl J.-B., Lek S. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity. Sci. Total Environ. 2012, 424:193-201.
84. Tomer M.D., Schilling K.E. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology. J. Hydrol. 2009, 376:24-33.
85. Tóth J. A theoretical analysis of groundwater flow on small drainage basins. Jour. Geophy. Res. 1963, 68(16):4795-4812.
86. Tripathi S., Srinivas V.V., Nanjundiah R.S. Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: a support vector machine approach. J. Hydrol. 2006, 330:621-640.
87. Troch P.A., Troch F.P., Brutsaert W. Effective water table depth to describe initial conditions prior to storm rainfall in humid regions. Water Resour. Res. 1993, 29(2):427-434.
88. Tshimanga R.M., Hughes D.A. Climate change and impacts on the hydrology of the Congo Basin: the case of the northern sub-basins of the Oubangui and Sangha Rivers. Phys. Chem. Earth 2012, 50-52:72-83.
89. Tu J. Combined impact of climate and land use changes on streamflow and water quality in eastern Massachusetts, USA. J. Hydrol. 2009, 379:268-283.
90. Van de Giesen N., Steenhuis T.S., Parlange J.-Y. Short- and long-time behavior of aquifer drainage after slow and sudden recharge according to the linearized Laplace equation. Adv. Water Resour 2005, 28:1122-1132.
91. Varandas, S., Lima, M.L., Teixeira, A., Hinzmann, M., Reis, J., Cortes, R., Machado, J., Sousa, R, 2013. Ecology of southern European pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera): first record of two new populations on the rivers Terva and Beça (Portugal). Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, Published online in Wiley Online Library.
92. Vicente-Serrano S.M., Saz-Sánchez M.A., Cuadrat J.M. Comparative analysis of interpolation methods in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain): application to annual precipitation and temperature. Clim. Res. 2003, 24:161-180.
93. Wagner P.D., Fiener P., Wilken F., Kumar S., Schneider K. Comparison and evaluation of spatial interpolation schemes for daily rainfall in data scarce regions. J. Hydrol. 2012, 464-465:388-400.
94. Wang D., Cai X. Detecting human interferences to low flows through base flow recession analysis. Water Resour. Res. 2009, 45(W07426):12p.
95. Wang D., Cai X. Comparative study of climate and human impacts on seasonal baseflow in urban and agricultural watersheds. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2010, 37(L06406):6p.
96. Wei Z.Q., Egger P., Descoeudres F. Permeability predictions for jointed rock masses. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. 1995, 32:251-261.
97. Westmacott J.R., Burn D.H. Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin. J. Hydrol. 1997, 202:263-279.
98. Xu Y.-P., Zhang X., Ran Q., Tian Y. Impact of climate change on hydrology of upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China. J. Hydrol. 2013, 483:51-60.
99. Yu P.-S., Yang T.-C., Wu C.-K. Impact of climate change on water resources in southern Taiwan. J. Hydrol. 2002, 260:161-175.
100. Yuan W., Yin D., Finlayson B., Chen Z. Assessing the potential for change in the middle Yangtze River channel following impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam. Geomorphology 2012, 147-148:27-34.
101. Zahar Y., Ghorbel A., Albergel J. Impacts of large dams on downstream flow conditions of rivers: aggradation and reduction of the Medjerda channel capacity downstream of the Sidi Salem dam (Tunisia). J. Hydrol. 2008, 351:318-330.
102. Zhang X.C., Liu W.Z. Simulating potential response of hydrology, soil erosion, and crop productivity to climate change in Changwu tableland region on the Loess Plateau of China. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2005, 131:127-142.
103. Zhao Q.H., Liu S.L., Deng L., Dong S.K., Wang C., Yang J.J. Assessing the damming effects on runoff using a multiple linear regression model: a case study of the Manwan Dam on the Lancang River. Proc. Environ. Sci. 2012, 13:1771-1780.
104. Zecharias Y.B., Brutsaert W. Ground surface slope as a basin scale parameter. Water Resour. Res. 1985, 21:1895-1902.
105. Zecharias Y.B., Brutsaert W. Recession characteristics of groundwater outflow and base flow from mountainous watersheds. Water Resour. Res. 1998, 24:1651-1658.