The risk/benefit of predicting a post-antibiotic era: Is the alarm working?

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volumn 1323, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 1-10

  Fowler, Tom ^a,b   Walker, David ^c   Davies, Sally C ^c  

^a PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^c DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Antimicrobial resistance; Policy; Post antibiotic era; Raising the alarm

Indexed keywords

ANTIBIOTIC AGENT; ANTIINFECTIVE AGENT;

ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE; ARTICLE; BACTERIA; DRUG MARKETING; HEALTH PRACTITIONER; HUMAN; NONHUMAN; POLICY; PREDICTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK BENEFIT ANALYSIS; BACTERIUM; DRUG EFFECT; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; POST-ANTIBIOTIC ERA; RAISING THE ALARM; REVIEW; RISK;

ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE; POLICY; POST-ANTIBIOTIC ERA; RAISING THE ALARM;

ANTI-BACTERIAL AGENTS; BACTERIA; DRUG RESISTANCE, MICROBIAL; HUMANS; RISK;

EID: 84907952095     PISSN: 00778923     EISSN: 17496632     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12399     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Guest, C., W. Ricciardi, I. Kawachi & I. Lang, Eds. 2013. Oxford Handbook of Public Health Practice. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
2. Davies, S.C. 2013. Infections and the rise of antimicrobial resistance. Annual report of the Chief Medical Officer, Vol. 2, 2011. London: Department of Health.
3. Davies, S.C., T. Fowler, J. Watson, et al. 2013. Annual report of the Chief Medical Officer: infection and the rise of antimicrobial resistance. Lancet 381: 1606-1609.
4. Standing Medical Advisory Committee. 1998. The path of least resistance. Main report. London: Department of Health.
5. Holberg, U. 1994. Effect of introduction of sulphonamides on the incidence and mortality from puerperal sepsis in a Swedish county hospital. Scand. J. Infect. Dis. 26: 233-238.
6. Reynolds, L.A. & E.M. Tanse . 2008. Superbugs and Superdrugs: A History of MRSA. London: Wellcome Trust Centre for the History of Medicine at UCL.
7. World Economic Forum. 2013. The dangers of hubris on human health. Global risks report 2013. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
8. Smith, R. & J. Coast . 2013. The true cost of antimicrobial resistance. Br. Med. J. 346: f1493.
9. Cabinet Office. 2010. A strong Britain in an age of uncertainty: the national security strategy 7953. TSO Shop. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.direct.gov.uk/prod_consum_dg/groups/dg_digitalassets/@dg/@en/documents/digitalasset/dg_191639.pdf.
10. Cabinet Office. 2010. Fact Sheet 2: national security risk assessment. Cited November 1, 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/62484/Factsheet2-National-Security-Risk-Assessment.pdf.
11. Cabinet Office. 2013. Risk assessment: how the risk of emergencies in the UK is assessed. TSO Shop. Cited November 1, 2013. https://www.gov.uk/risk-assessment-how-the-risk-of-emergencies-in-the-uk-is-assessed.
12. United States. Department of Homeland Security. 2011. The strategic national risk assessment in support of PPD 8: a comprehensive risk-based approach toward a secure and resilient nation. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-strategic-national-risk-assessment-ppd8.pdf.
13. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2013. Antibiotic resistance threats in the United States, 2013. US Department of Health and Human Sciences. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/threat-report-2013/.
14. WHO. 2012. Global tuberculosis report 2012. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
15. Pedrazzoli, D., N. Fulton, L. Anderson, et al. 2012. Tuberculosis in the UK: 2012 report. London: Health Protection Agency.
16. De Kraker, M.E.A., M. Wolkewitz, P.G. Davey, et al. Burden of antimicrobial resistance in European hospitals: excess mortality and length of hospital stay associated with bloodstream infections due to Escherichia coli resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 66: 398-407.
17. Rafael, C., M. Akóva, Y.Carmeli, et al. 2012. Rapid evolution and spread of carbapenemases among Enterobacteriaceae in Europe. Clin. Microbiol. Infect. 18: 413-431.
18. Gupta, N., B.M. Limbago, J.B. Patel & A.J. Kallen . 2011. Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae: epidemiology and prevention. Clin. Infect. Dis. 53: 60-67.
19. Goren, M.G., Y. Carmeli, M.J. Schwaber, et al. 2010. Transfer of carbapenem-resistant plasmid from Klebsiella pneumoniae ST258 to Escherichia coli in Patient. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 16: 1014-1017.
20. Oteo J., C. Navarro, E. Cercenado E, et al. 2006. Spread of Escherichia coli strains with high-level cefotaxime and ceftazidime resistance between the community, long-term care facilities, and hospital institutions. J. Clin. Microbiol. 44: 2359-2366.
21. McKenna, M. 2013. Antibiotic resistance: the last resort. Nature 499: 394.
22. Johnson, A.P. & N. Woodford . 2013. Global spread of antibiotic resistance: the example of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM)-mediated carbapenem resistance. J. Med. Microbiol. 62(Pt 4): 499-513.
23. Huttner, A., S. Harbarth, J. Carlet, et al. 2013. Antimicrobial resistance: a global view from the 2013 World Healthcare-Associated Infections Forum. Antimicrob. Resist. Infect. Control 2: 31.
24. Williamson, D.A., J.T. Freeman, S.A. Roberts, et al. 2013. Rectal colonization with New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase-1-producing Escherichia coli prior to transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy. J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 68: 2957-2959.
25. Mossialos, E., C. Morel, S. Edwards, et al. 2009. Policies and incentives for promoting innovation in antibiotic research. London School of Economics and Political Science. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.lse.ac.uk/intranet/LSEServices/ERD/pressAndInformationOffice/PDF/Policiesandincentivesforpromotinginnovationinantibiotic.pdf.
26. Davies, S.C., T. Fowler, K. Ridge & D. Walker . 2013. The rise of antimicrobial resistance. Harvard Health Policy Review. Cited November1, 2013. http://hhpronline.org./wp-content/uploads/2013/08/davies1.pdf
27. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control/European Medicines Agency. 2009. A joint technical report: The bacterial challenge: time to react. Stockholm, Sweden.
28. Pucci, M.J. & K, Bush . 2013. Investigational antimicrobial agents of 2013. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 26: 792-821.
29. Boucher, H.W., G.H. Talbot, D.K., Jr. Benjamin, et al. 2013 Infectious Diseases Society of America. 10 x '20 Progress-development of new drugs active against gram-negative bacilli: an update from the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Clin. Infect. Dis. 56: 1685-1694.
30. Boucher, H.W., G.H. Talbot, J.S. Bradley, et al. 2009. Bad bugs, no drugs: no ESKAPE! An update from the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Clin. Infect. Dis. 48: 1-12.
31. Reynolds, L.A. & E.M. Tanse . 2000. "Post penicillin antibiotics. From acceptance to resistance?" In Wellcome Witnesses to Twentieth Century Medicine. Vol. 6. E.M. Tansey & L.A. Reynolds, Eds.: 1-37. London: Wellcome Trust.
32. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology. 1998. Resistance to antibiotics and other antimicrobial therapy. 7th Report Session 1997-98. The Stationery Office, London.
33. World Health Organisation. 1998. Emerging and other communicable diseases: antimicrobial resistance. Resolution of 51st World Health Assembly.
34. Rosdahl, V.T. & K.B. Pedersen, Eds. 1998. The Copenhagen Recommendations. Report from the Invitational EU Conference on The Microbial Threat, Copenhagen Denmark, 9-10 September 1998. Copenhagen, Denmark: Danish Ministry of Health, and Danish Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries. Cited November 1, 2013. http://soapimg.icecube.snowfall.se/strama/Kopenhamnsmotet_1998.pdf.
35. Department of Health. 2000. UK Antimicrobial Resistance Strategy and Action Plan. London: Department of Health.
36. Department of Health. 2013. UK Five Year Antimicrobial Resistance Strategy 2013 to 2018. London: Department of Health.
37. Ghafur, A., D. Mathai, A. Muruganathan, et al. 2013. The Chennai declaration: a roadmap to tackle the challenge of antimicrobial resistance. Indian J. Cancer 50: 71.
38. Chan, M. 2012. Antimicrobial resistance in the European Union and the world. World Health Organisation.
39. UK BioIndustry Association. 2013. The Biomedical Catalyst, Acclerating Medical Research and Leveraging Investment.
40. Innovative Medicines Initiative. ND4BB Topic 3: Discovery and Development of new drugs combatting Gram-negative infections. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.imi.europa.eu/webfm_send/604.
41. Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance. Cited November, 2013. www.jpiantimicrobialresistance.eu.
42. The PEW Charitable Trust. 2013. Core Principles for a limited population antibacterial Drug (LPAD) Pathway. Cited November 1, 2013. www.Pewhealth.org.
43. US Department of Health and Human Services. BARDA unveils path forward in the BARDA Strategic Plan 2011-2016. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.phe.gov/about/barda/Pages/2011barda-stratplan.aspx.
44. Sinha, G. 2013. BARDA to pick and choose next-generation antibiotics. Nat. Biotechnol. 31: 665-665.
45. Agricultural Research Council and Medical Research Council. 1969. Joint Committee on Antibiotics in Animal Feeding. The Committee was chaired by Professor Sir Michael Swann FRS (Lord Swann from 1981).
46. CVM Guidance For Industry #213 2013- New Animal Drugs and New Animal Drug Combination Products Administered in or on Medicated Feed or Drinking Water of Food-Producing Animals: Recommendations for Drug Sponsors for Voluntarily Aligning Product Use Conditions with GFI #209
47. Ghafur, A., D. Mathai, A. Muruganathan, et al. 2013. The Chennai Declaration: a roadmap to tackle the challenge of antimicrobial resistance. Indian J. Cancer 50: 71-73.
48. Dhar, A. 2013. Government notifies Schedule H1 drugs. The Hindu, New Delhi. Cited November 1, 2013. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/government-notifies-schedule-h1-drugs/article5176491.ece.
49. Nerlich, B. & R. James . 2009. "The post-antibiotic apocalypse" and the "war on superbugs": catastrophe discourse in microbiology, its rhetorical form and political function. Public Underst. Sci. 18: 574-590.
50. Macfarlane, J., W. Holmes, R. Macfarlane & N. Britten . 1997. Influence of patients' expectations on antibiotic management of acute lower respiratory tract illness in general practice: questionnaire study. Br. Med. J. 315: 1211-1214.
51. Cars, O., L.D. Högberg, M. Murray, et al. 2008. Meeting the challenge of antibiotic resistance. Br. Med. J. 33: a1438.
52. Huttner, B., H. Goossens, T. Verheij & S. Harbarth . 2010. Characteristics and outcomes of public campaigns aimed at improving the use of antibiotics in outpatients in high-income countries. Lancet Infect. Dis. 10: 17-31.
53. Filippini, M., L.G.G. Ortiz & G. Masiero . 2012. Assessing the impact of national antibiotic campaigns in Europe. Eur. J. Health Econ. 14: 587-599.
54. Sjölund, M, K. Wreiber, D.I. Andersson, et al. 2003. Long-term persistence of resistant Enterococcus species after antibiotics to eradicate Helicobacter pylori. Ann. Intern. Med. 16: 483-487.
55. Nasrin, D., P.J. Collignon, L. Roberts, et al. 2002. Effect of beta lactam antibiotic use in children on pneumococcal resistance to penicillin: prospective cohort study. Br. Med. J. 324: 28-30.
56. Howard, A.J., J.T. Magee, K.A. Fitzgerald, et al. 2001. Factors associated with antibiotic resistance in coliform organisms from community urinary tract infection in Wales. J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 47: 305-313.
57. Butler, C., F. Dunstan, M. Heginbothom, et al. 2007. Containing antibiotic resistance: decreased antibiotic-resistant coliform urinary tract infections with reduction in antibiotic prescribing by general practices. Br. J. Gen. Pract. 57: 785.
58. Davey, P., E. Brown, E. Charani, et al. 2013. Interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing practices for hospital inpatients. Cochrane Database Syst. Rev. 30: 4.
59. Rodrigues, A.T., F. Roque, A. Falcão, et al. 2012. Understanding physician antibiotic prescribing behaviour: a systematic review of qualitative studies. Int. J. Antimicrob. Agents 41: 203-212.
60. Wood, F., C. Phillips, L. Brookes-Howell, et al. 2013. Primary care clinicians' perceptions of antibiotic resistance: a multi-country qualitative interview study. J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 68: 237-243.
61. Björkman, I., J. Berg, N. Viberg & C.S. Lundborg, 2013. Awareness of antibiotic resistance and antibiotic prescribing in UTI treatment: a qualitative study among primary care physicians in Sweden. Scand. J. Prim. Health Care 31: 50-55.
62. Dolan, P., M. Hallsworth & D. Halpern, et al. 2010. Influencing Behaviour through Public Policy. Mindspace. London: Cabinet Office.