National health expenditure projections, 2013-23: Faster growth expected with expanded coverage and improving economy

Health Affairs

Volumn 33, Issue 10, 2014, Pages 1841-1850

  Sisko, Andrea M ^a   Keehan, Sean P ^a   Cuckler, Gigi A ^a   Madison, Andrew J ^a   Smith, Sheila D ^a   Wolfe, Christian J ^a   Stone, Devin A ^a   Lizonitz, Joseph M ^a   Poisal, John A ^a  

^a CENTERS FOR MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SERVICES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC ASPECT; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH CARE POLICY; MEDICAID; MEDICAL SERVICE; PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE; PUBLIC HEALTH; DRUG COST; ECONOMICS; FORECASTING; HEALTH INSURANCE; HOSPITAL; HUMAN; INSURANCE; MEDICARE; PHYSICIAN; STATISTICAL MODEL; TRENDS; UNITED STATES; UTILIZATION;

PRESCRIPTION DRUG;

DRUG COSTS; FORECASTING; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HOSPITALS; HUMANS; INSURANCE COVERAGE; INSURANCE, HEALTH; MEDICAID; MEDICARE; MODELS, ECONOMETRIC; PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT; PHYSICIANS; PRESCRIPTION DRUGS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84907812640     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: 15445208     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2014.0560     Document Type: Article

References (27)

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6. Sequestration refers to budget or payment reductions mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011. For Medicare, the following payment reductions are in effect: 2.0 percent, April 2013-March 2023; 2.9 percent, April 2023-September 2023; and 1.11 percent, October 2023- March 2024. Spending reductions under the sequestration were also enacted in 2013 for other federal programs, including some that are health related.
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8. The reduction in Medicare Advantage payments for 2015 is largely associated with the expiration of the Quality Bonus Payment Demonstration, as well as the trend in fee-for service expenditures for 2010-15. For more information on the fee-forservice expenditure trends that we took into account, see Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. 2015 payment notice: key components of USPCC trends: 2010-2015 [Internet]. Baltimore (MD): CMS; [cited 2014 Jul 25]. Available from: http:// www.cms.gov/Medicare/Health-Plans/MedicareAdvtgSpecRate Stats/Downloads/Narrative-2015-payment-notice.pdf
9. Under current law, a reduction of approximately 21 percent in Medicare physician payment rates is scheduled for April 1, 2015, based on the Sustainable Growth Rate formula. If these reductions were to go into effect, growth in total Medicare spending, in physician and clinical services, and in overall national health expenditures would be 1.2 percent, 2.4 percent, and 4.6 percent, respectively, in 2015.
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11. In the four years since the recession's conclusion, economic growth has averaged just 3.9 percent per year, while GDP in the four years following each of the 1981-82, 1990- 91, and 2001 recessions averaged 8.2 percent, 5.6 percent, and 5.4 percent, respectively.
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24. Note that the 2.7 percent growth rate for Medicare spending in 2015 is consistent with the projected baseline scenario in the 2014 Medicare Trustees Report (see Note 9). For more information, see the Model and Assumptions section of this article.
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26. Relative to plans in 2013, premium subsidies encourage the purchase of more generous plans, and costsharing subsidies lessen the impact of cost sharing at the point of service. Each type of subsidy is predicted to lead to greater use of health care goods and services.
27. For more information, see the 2014 Medicare Trustees Report (see Note 9), section II.D.