Analysis of hurricane evacuee mode choice behavior

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

Volumn 48, Issue , 2014, Pages 37-46

  Sadri, Arif Mohaimin ^a   Ukkusuri, Satish V ^a   Murray Tuite, Pamela ^b   Gladwin, Hugh ^c  

^a PURDUE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University   (United States)

^c FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Behavioral model; Evacuation modeling; Hurricane evacuation; Mode choice; Nested logit

Indexed keywords

BEACHES; LOGISTIC REGRESSION; TAXICABS;

BEHAVIORAL MODEL; EVACUATION MODELING; HURRICANE EVACUATION; MODE CHOICE; NESTED LOGIT;

HURRICANES;

HURRICANE; HURRICANE EVENT; LOGIT ANALYSIS; TRANSPORTATION MODE; TRAVEL BEHAVIOR;

FLORIDA [UNITED STATES]; MIAMI; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84907606924     PISSN: 0968090X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2014.08.008     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Baker E.J. Predicting response to hurricane warnings: a reanalysis of data from four studies. Mass Emerg. 1979, 4(1):9-24.
2. Baker E.J. Hurricane evacuation behavior. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 1991, 9(2):287-310.
3. Barrett B., Ran B., Pillai R. Developing a dynamic traffic management modeling framework for hurricane evacuation. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2000, 1733(1):115-121.
4. Ben-Akiva M., Lerman S. Discrete Choice Analysis 1985, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
5. Benfield, A., 2013. Annual global climate and catastrophe report: 2012. (retrieved July 1, 2013). http://www.thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/Documents/20130124_if_annual_global_climate_catastrophe_report.pdf.
6. Carnegie, J.A., Deka, D., 2010. Using hypothetical disaster scenarios to predict evacuation behavioral response. In: Proceedings of the 89th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, USA.
7. Cavusoglu O., Sisiopiku V.P., Juri N.R. Role of transit in carless evacuation planning. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2012, 14(3):191-199.
8. Cheng, G., Wilmot, C.G., Baker, E.J., 2008. A destination choice model for hurricane evacuation. Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers, DVD, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., p. 13.
9. City of Miami Beach - Official Website. (retrieved July 5, 2013). http://www.miamibeachfl.gov/.
10. Dash N., Gladwin H. Evacuation decision making and behavioral responses: individual and household. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2007, 8(3):69-77.
11. Deka, D., Carnegie, J., 2010. Analyzing evacuation behavior of transportation-disadvantaged populations in northern New Jersey. In Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting (No. 10-1584).
12. Dixit V.V., Pande A., Radwan E., Abdel-Aty M. Understanding the impact of a recent hurricane on mobilization time during a subsequent hurricane. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2008, 2041:49-51.
13. Dixit V.V., Wilmot C., Wolshon B. Modeling risk attitudes in evacuation departure choices. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2012, 2312:159-163.
14. Dow K., Cutter S.L. Crying wolf: repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders. Coastal Manag. 1998, 26(4):237-252.
15. Dow K., Cutter S.L. Emerging hurricane evacuation issues: hurricane Floyd and South Carolina. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2002, 3(6):12-18.
16. Fu H., Wilmot C.G. Sequential logit dynamic travel demand model for hurricane evacuation. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2004, 1882:19-26.
17. Fu H., Wilmot C.G. Survival analysis-based dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2006, 1964:211-218.
18. Gkritza K., Mannering F. Mixed logit analysis of safety-belt use in single- and multi-occupant vehicles. Accident Analysis and Prevention 2008, 40:443-451.
19. Gladwin C.H., Gladwin H., Peacock W.G. Modeling hurricane evacuation decisions with ethnographic methods. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 2001, 19(2):117-143.
20. Gladwin H., Lazo J.K., Morrow B.H., Peacock W.G., Willoughby H.E. Social science research needs for the hurricane forecast and warning system. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2007, 8(3):87-95.
21. Hasan S., Ukkusuri S.V., Gladwin H., Murray-Tuite P. A behavioral model to understand household-level hurricane evacuation decision making. J. Transp. Eng. 2011, 137(5):341-348.
22. Hasan S., Mesa-Arango R., Ukkusuri S.V. A random-parameter hazard-based model to understand household evacuation timing behavior. Transp. Res. Part C: Emerg. Technol. 2011.
23. Heath S.E., Kass P.H., Beck A.M., Glickman L.T. Human and pet related risk factors for household evacuation failure during a natural disaster. Am. J. Epidemiol. 2001, 153(7):659-665.
24. Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, 2005. Survey of Hurricane Katrina evacuees." (retrieved May 1, 2014). http://www.kff.org/newsmedia/upload/7401.pdf.
25. Hurricane Andrew Assessment-Florida, 1993. Prepared for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Federal Emergency Management Agency. (retrieved July 25, 2013). http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hes/docs/postStorm/H_ANDREW_ASSESSMENT_REVIEW_HES_UTILIZATION_INFO_DISSEMINATION.pdf.
26. Kang J.E., Lindell M.K., Prater C.S. Hurricane evacuation expectations and actual behavior in Hurricane Lili. J. Appl. Soc. Psychol. 2007, 37(4):887-903.
27. Kunreuther, H., 2013. Making america more resilient toward natural disasters: a call for action." (retrieved July 5, 2013). https://www.mba.asu.edu/CEESP/events/upload/Kunreuther-Making-America-More-Resilient-toward-Natural-Disasters-A-Call-for-Action.pdf.
28. Lindell M.K., Prater C.S. A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS). Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2007, 40(3):627-634.
29. Lindell M.K., Prater C.S. Critical behavioral assumptions in evacuation time estimate analysis for private vehicles: examples from hurricane research and planning. J. Urban Plann. Dev. 2007, 133(1):18-29.
30. Lindell M.K., Lu J.C., Prater C.S. Household decision making and evacuation in response to Hurricane Lili. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2005, 6(4):171-179.
31. Lindell M.K., Kang J.E., Prater C.S. The logistics of household hurricane evacuation. Nat. Hazard. 2011, 58(3):1093-1109.
32. Liu S., Murray-Tuite P., Schweitzer L. Incorporating household gathering and mode decisions in large-scale no-notice evacuation modeling. Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 2013.
33. McFadden D. Econometric Models of Probabilistic Choice. A Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications 1981, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Manski, D. McFadden (Eds.).
34. Mei, B., 2002. Development of trip generation models of hurricane evacuation. Master Thesis, Louisiana State University.
35. Mesa-Arango R., Hasan S., Ukkusuri S.V., Murray-Tuite P. A household-level model for hurricane evacuation destination type choice using Hurricane Ivan data. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 2012, 14(1):11-20.
36. Mileti D.S., O'Brien P.W., Sorensen J.H. Toward an explanation of mass care shelter use in evacuations. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 1992, 10(1):25-42.
37. Modali, N.K., 2005. Modeling destination choice and measuring the transferability of hurricane evacuation patterns. Master Thesis, Louisiana State University.
38. Moore H.E., Bates F.L., Layman M.V., Parenton V.J. Before the wind: a study of the response to Hurricane Carla 1963, National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
39. Murray-Tuite P., Wolshon B. Evacuation transportation modeling: an overview of research, development, and practice. Transp. Res. Part C: Emerg. Technol. 2013, 27:25-45.
40. Murray-Tuite P.M., Yin W., Ukkusuri S., Gladwin H. Changes in evacuation decisions between Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina. Transp. Res. Rec. 2012.
41. Murray-Tuite P., Schweitzer L., Morrison R. Household no-notice evacuation logistics: how well do households optimize?. J. Transp. Saf. Secur. 2012, 4(4):336-361.
42. Neff, J., Pham, L., 2007. A profile of public transportation passenger demographics and travel characteristics reported in on-board surveys. < (retrieved July 20, 2013). http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/transit_passenger_characteristics_text_5_29_2007.pdf.
43. NLOGIT Version 4.0 [Computer Software], 2007. Plainview, NY, Econometric Software.
44. Renne, J.L., Sanchez, T.W., Litman, T., 2008. National study on carless and special needs evacuation planning: a literature review.
45. Renne J.L., Sanchez T.W., Jenkins P., Peterson R. Challenge of evacuating the carless in five major US cities: identifying the key issues. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 2009, 2119:36-44.
46. Robinson, R. M., Khattak, A., 2009. Route change decision-making by hurricane evacuees facing congestion. In Transportation Research Board 2010 Annual Meeting. CD-ROM. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Washington, D.C.
47. Sadri, A.M., 2012. Behavioral models to understand routing considerations and evacuation preparation time in hurricanes. MS Thesis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
48. Sadri A.M., Ukkusuri S.V., Murray-Tuite P. A random parameter ordered probit model to understand the mobilization time during hurricane evacuation. Transp. Res. Part C: Emerg. Technol. 2013, 32:21-30.
49. Sadri A.M., Ukkusuri S., Murray-Tuite P., Gladwin H. How to evacuate? A model to understand routing strategies during hurricane evacuation. ASCE J. Transp. Eng. 2013, 140(1):61-69.
50. Smith S.K., McCarty C. Fleeing the storm(s): an examination of evacuation behavior during Florida's 2004 hurricane season. Demography 2009, 46(1):127-145.
51. Sorensen J.H. When shall we leave? Factors affecting the timing of evacuation departures. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 1991, 9(2):153-165.
52. Southworth, F., 1991. Regional evacuation modeling: A state-of-the-art review. ORL/TM-11740, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn.
53. Stopher, P.R., Alsnih, R., Rose, J., 2005. Developing decision support system for emergency evacuation: case study of bush fires. In: Presented at 84th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
54. Train K. Discrete choice methods with simulation 2003, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
55. United States Census Bureau. (retrieved July 17, 2013). http://www.quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12/1245025.html.
56. Urbina E., Wolshon B. National review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies: a comparison and contrast of state practices. Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 2003, 37(3):257-275.
57. Villegas J., Matyas C., Srinivasan S., Cahyanto I., Thapa B., Pennington-Gray L. Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages. Nat. Hazard. 2013, 66(1):97-116.
58. Vogt B.M. Issues in nursing home evacuations. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 1991, 9:247-265.
59. Washington S., Karlaftis M., Mannering F. Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis 2003, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida. First ed.
60. Washington S., Karlaftis M., Mannering F. Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis 2011, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida. Second ed.
61. Wilmot, C.G., Gudishala, R., 2013. Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area. (No. FHWA/LA12/494).
62. Wu H.C., Lindell M.K., Prater C.S. Logistics of hurricane evacuation in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Transp. Res. Part F: Traffic Psychol. Behav. 2012, 15(4):445-461.
63. Zhao, F., Xing, K., Yang, S., Lu, C., Chung, S., 2010. Hurricane evacuation planning for special needs populations (No. FTA-FL-04-7104-2010.04). U.S. Dept. of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, Washington, DC.