A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

Environmental and Ecological Statistics

Volumn 21, Issue 3, 2014, Pages 411-433

  Lindström, Johan ^a,b   Szpiro, Adam A ^a   Sampson, Paul D ^a   Oron, Assaf P ^a   Richards, Mark ^a   Larson, Tim V ^a   Sheppard, Lianne ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Air pollution; Cross validation; Spatio temporal data; Unbalanced data

Indexed keywords

AMBIENT AIR; ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION; GIS; NITROGEN OXIDES; NUMERICAL MODEL; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TRAFFIC EMISSION;

CALIFORNIA; LOS ANGELES [CALIFORNIA]; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84907596200     PISSN: 13528505     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10651-013-0261-4     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Appel KW, Bhave PV, Gilliland AB, Sarwar G, Roselle SJ (2008) Evaluation of the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model version 4. 5: sensitivities impacting model performance; part II-particulate matter. Atmos Environ 42(24): 6057-6066.
2. Banerjee S, Carlin BP, Gelfand AE (2004) Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London.
3. Banerjee S, Gelfand AE, Finley AO, Sang H (2008) Gaussian predictive process models for large spatial data sets. J R Stat Soc Ser B 70: 825-848.
4. Basu R, Woodruff TJ, Parker JD, Saulnier L, Schoendorf KC (2000) Particulate air pollution and mortality: findings from 20 U. S. cities. N Engl J Med 343(24): 1742-1749.
5. Berrocal VJ, Gelfand AE, Holland DM (2010) A spatio-temporal downscaler for output from numerical models. J Agric Bio Environ Stat 15(2): 176-197.
6. Bild DE, Bluemke DA, Burke GL, Detrano R, Diez Roux AV, Folsom AR, Greenland P, Jacobs DR Jr, Kronmal R, Liu K, Nelson JC, O'Leary D, Saad MF, Shea S, Szklo M, Tracy RP (2002) Multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis: objectives and design. Am J Epidemiol 156(9): 871-881.
7. Brauer M, Hoek G, van Vliet P, Meliefste K, Fischer P, Gehring U, Heinrich J, Cyrys J, Bellander T, Lewne M, Brunekreef B (2003) Estimating long-term average particulate air pollution concentrations: Application of traffic indicators and geographic information systems. Epidemiology 14(2): 228-239.
8. Byrd R, Lu P, Nocedal J, Zhu C (1995) A limited memory algorithm for bound constrained optimization. SIAM J Sci Comput 16: 1190-1208.
9. Calder CA (2008) A dynamic process convolution approach to modeling ambient particulate matter concentrations. Environmetrics 19(1): 39-48.
10. Cameletti M, Lindgren F, Simpson D, Rue H (2013) Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentration through the SPDE approach. AStA Adv Stat Anal 97(2): 109-131.
11. Carroll RJ, Ruppert D, Stefanski LA, Crainiceanu CM (2006) Measurement error in nonlinear models: A modern perspective, 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall, CRC, London.
12. Cohen MA, Adar SD, Allen RW, Avol E, Curl CL, Gould T, Hardie D, Ho A, Kinney P, Larson TV, Sampson PD, Sheppard L, Stukovsky KD, Swan SS, Liu LJS, Kaufman JD (2009) Approach to estimating participant pollutant exposures in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis and air pollution (MESA air). Environ Sci Technol 43(13): 4687-4693.
13. Cressie N (1993) Statistics for spatial data, revised edition. Wiley, London.
14. Cressie N, Johannesson G (2008) Fixed rank kriging for very large spatial data sets. J R Stat Soc Ser B 70(1): 209-226.
15. Cressie N, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data. Wiley, London.
16. De Iaco S, Posa D (2012) Predicting spatio-temporal random fields: some computational aspects. Comput Geosci 41: 12-24.
17. Dockery DW, Pope CA, Xu X, Spangler JD, Ware JH, Fay ME, Ferris BG, Speizer FE (1993) An association between air pollution and mortality in six cities. N Engl J Med 329(24): 1753-1759.
18. Eckhoff P, Braverman T (1995) Addendum to the user's guide to CAL3QHC version 2. 0 (CAL3QHCR user's guide). Technical report, US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
19. Fanshawe TR, Diggle PJ, Rushton S, Sanderson R, Lurz PWW, Glinianaia SV, Pearce MS, Parker L, Charlton M, Pless-Mulloli T (2008) Modelling spatio-temporal variation in exposure to particulate matter: A two-stage approach. Environmetrics 19(6): 549-566.
20. Finley AO, Banerjee S, Gelfand AE (2012) Bayesian dynamic modeling for large space-time datasets using gaussian predictive processes. J Geogr Syst 14(1): 29-47.
21. Fuentes M, Raftery AE (2005) Model evaluation and spatial interpolation by Bayesian combination of observations with outputs from numerical models. Biometrics 61(1): 34-45.
22. Fuentes M, Guttorp P, Sampson PD (2006) Using transforms to analyze space-time processes. In: Finkenstädt B, Held L, Isham V (eds) Statistical methods for spatio-temporal systems. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London, pp 77-150.
23. Furrer R, Genton MG, Nychka D (2006) Covariance tapering for interpolation of large spatial datasets. J Comput Graph Stat 15(3): 502-523.
24. Gamerman D (2010) Dynamic spatial models including spatial time series. In: Gelfand AE, Diggle P, Guttorp P, Fuentes M (eds) Handbook of spatial statistics. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London, pp 437-448.
25. Gneiting T, Guttorp P (2010) Continuous parameter spatio-temporal processes. In: Gelfand AE, Diggle P, Guttorp P, Fuentes M (eds) Handbook of Spatial Statistics. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London, pp 427-436.
26. Gryparis A, Paciorek CJ, Zeka A, Schwartz J, Coull BA (2009) Measurement error caused by spatial misalignment in environmental epidemiology. Biostatistics 10(2): 258-274.
27. Harville DA (1997) Matrix algebra from a statistician's perspective, 1st edn. Springer, Berlin.
28. Hoek G, Beelen R, de Hoogh K, Vienneau D, Gulliver J, Fischer P, Briggs D (2008) A review of land-use regression models to assess spatial variation of outdoor air pollution. Atmos Environ 42(3): 7561-7578.
29. Hogrefe C, Porter P, Gego E, Gilliland A, Gilliam R, Swall J, Irwin J, Rao S (2006) Temporal features in observed and simulated meteorology and air quality over the Eastern United States. Atmos Environ 40(26): 5041-5055.
30. Jerrett M, Arain A, Kanaroglou P, Beckerman B, Potoglou D, Sahsuvaroglu T, Morrison J, Giovis C (2005) A review and evaluation of intraurban air pollution exposure models. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol 15: 185-204.
31. Kang EL, Cressie N, Shi T (2010) Using temporal variability to improve spatial mapping with application to satellite data. Can J Stat 38(2): 271-289.
32. Kaufman JD, Adar SD, Allen RW, Barr RG, Budoff MJ, Burke GL, Casillas AM, Cohen MA, Curl CL, Daviglus ML, Roux AVD, Jacobs DR, Kronmal RA, Larson TV, Liu SLJ, Lumley T, Navas-Acien A, O'Leary DH, Rotter JI, Sampson PD, Sheppard L, Siscovick DS, Stein JH, Szpiro AA, Tracy RP (2012) Prospective study of particulate air pollution exposures, subclinical atherosclerosis, and clinical cardiovascular disease: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis and air pollution (MESA air). Am J Epidemiol 176(9): 825-837.
33. Lindgren F, Rue H, Lindström J (2011) An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach. J R Stat Soc Ser B 73(4): 423-498.
34. Lindström J, Szpiro AA, Sampson PD, Sheppard L, Oron A, Richards M, Larson T (2011) Incorporating output from source dispersion models into the spatio-temporal modelling of outdoor pollutant concentrations. Technical report. Working paper 370, UW Biostatistics working paper series. http://www. bepress. com/uwbiostat/paper370.
35. x) for the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis and air pollution (MESA air). Atmos Environ 45(26): 4412-4420.
36. Miller KA, Sicovick DS, Sheppard L, Shepherd K, Sullivan JH, Anderson GL, Kaufman JD (2007) Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of cardiovascular events in women. N Engl J Med 356(5): 447-458.
37. Paciorek CJ (2010) The importance of scale for spatial-confounding bias and precision of spatial regression estimators. Stat Sci 25(1): 107-125.
38. Paciorek CP, Yanosky JD, Puett RC, Laden F, Suh HH (2009) Practical large-scale spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations. Ann Stat 3(1): 370-397.
39. Pinheiro J, Bates D (2009) Mixed-effects models in S and S-PLUS. Statistics and computing. Springer, Berlin.
40. Pope CA, Thun MJ, Namboodiri MM, Dockery DW, Evans JS, Speizer FE, Heath CW Jr (1995) Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of U. S. adults. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 151: 669-674.
41. Pope CA, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K, Thurston GD (2002) Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. J Am Med Assoc 9(287): 1132-1141.
42. Puett RC, Hart JE, Yanosky JD, Paciorek CJ, Schwartz J, Suh H, Speizer FE, Laden F (2009) Chronic fine and coarse particulate exposure, mortality and coronary heart disease in the nurses' health study. Environ Health Perspect 117: 1697-1701.
43. R Development Core Team (2008) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www. R-project. org. ISBN 3-900051-07-0.
44. Sahu SK, Gelfand AE, Holland D (2006) Spatio-temporal modeling of fine particulate matter. J Agric Bio Environ Stat 11(1): 61-86.
45. Sampson PD, Szpiro AA, Sheppard L, Lindström J, Kaufman JD (2011) Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data. Atmos Environ 45(36): 6593-6606.
46. Sheppard L, Burnett RT, Szpiro AA, Kim SY, Jerrett M, Pope CA III, Brunekreef B (2012) Confounding and exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology. Air Qual Atmos Health 5(2): 203-216.
47. Smith RL, Kolenikov S, Cox LH (2003) Spatio-temporal modeling of PM2. 5 data with missing values. J Geophys Res 108(D24): 9004.
48. Stein ML, Chi Z, Welty LJ (2004) Approximating likelihoods for large spatial data sets. J R Stat Soc Ser B 66(2): 275-296.
49. Szpiro AA, Sampson PD, Sheppard L, Lumley T, Adar S, Kaufman J (2010) Predicting intra-urban variation in air pollution concentrations with complex spatio-temporal dependencies. Environmetrics 21(6): 606-631.
50. Szpiro AA, Paciorek C, Sheppard L (2011a) Does more accurate exposure prediction necessarily improve health effect estimates? Epidemiology 22(5): 680-685.
51. Szpiro AA, Sheppard L, Lumley T (2011b) Efficient measurement error correction with spatially misaligned data. Biostatistics 12(4): 610-623.
52. US Census Bureau (2002) UA census 2000 TIGER/line files technical documentation. Technical report, US Census Bureau, Washington, DC. https://www. census. gov/geo/www/tiger/tigerua/ua2ktgr. pdf.
53. Wilton D, Szpiro AA, Gould T, Larson T (2010) Improving spatial concentration estimates for nitrogen oxides using a hybrid meteorological dispersion/land use regression model in Los Angeles, CA and Seattle. WA. Sci Total Environ 408(5): 1120-1130.