Reliability of regional and global climate models to simulate precipitation extremes over India

Journal of Geophysical Research

Volumn 119, Issue 15, 2014, Pages 9301-9323

  Mishra, Vimal ^a   Kumar, Devashish ^b   Ganguly, Auroop R ^b   Sanjay, J ^c   Mujumdar, Milind ^c   Krishnan, R ^c   Shah, Reepal D ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY GANDHINAGAR   (India)

^b Northeastern University   (United States)

^c INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE; EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGIC DESIGN; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES; RCMS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

EID: 84906656904     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: 21562202     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021636     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Allan, R. P., C. Liu, M. Zahn, D. A. Lavers, E. Koukouvagias, and A. Bodas-Salcedo (2014), Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations, Surv. Geophys., 35(3), 533–552, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z.
2. Bollasina, M. A., Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy (2011), Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon, Science, 334(6055), 502–505.
3. Chaturvedi, R. K., J. Joshi, M. Jayaraman, G. Bala, and N. H. Ravindranath (2012), Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways, Curr. Sci., 103(7), 791–802.
4. Chen, C.-T., and T. Knutson (2008), On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from climate models, J. Clim., 21(7), 1605–1621.
5. Choudhury, A. D., and R. Krishnan (2011), Dynamical response of the South Asian monsoon trough to latent heating from stratiform and convective precipitation, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1347–1363.
6. Christensen, J. H., and O. B. Christensen (2003), Climate modelling: Severe summertime flooding in Europe, Nature, 421(6925), 805–806.
7. Christensen, J. H., F. Boberg, O. B. Christensen, and P. Lucas-Picher (2008), On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20709, doi:10.1029/2008GL035694.
8. Coumou, D., and S. Rahmstorf (2012), A decade of weather extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 2(7), 491–496.
9. Déqué, M., D. P. Rowell, D. Lüthi, F. Giorgi, J. H. Christensen, B. Rockel, D. Jacob, E. Kjellström, M. De Castro, and B. van den Hurk (2007), An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: Assessing uncertainties in model projections, Clim. Change, 81(1), 53–70.
10. Fowler, H. J., and M. Ekström (2009), Multi-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes, Int. J. Climatol., 29(3), 385–416.
11. Fowler, H. J., and R. L. Wilby (2010), Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk, Water Resour. Res., 46, W03525, doi:10.1029/2008WR007636.
12. Fowler, H. J., M. Ekström, S. Blenkinsop, and A. P. Smith (2007a), Estimating change in extreme European precipitation using a multimodel ensemble, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D18104, doi:10.1029/2007JD008619.
13. Fowler, H. J., S. Blenkinsop, and C. Tebaldi (2007b), Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 27(12), 1547–1578, doi:10.1002/joc.1556.
14. Ghosh, S., D. Das, S.-C. Kao, and A. R. Ganguly (2012), Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 2(2), 86–91.
15. Giorgi, F., and R. Francisco (2000), Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(9), 1295–1298, doi:10.1029/1999GL011016.
16. Goswami, B. N., V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S. Madhusoodanan, and P. K. Xavier (2006), Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314(5804), 1442–1445.
17. Groisman, P. Y., T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, R. W. Knight, P. F. Jamason, K. J. Hennessy, R. Suppiah, C. M. Page, J. Wibig, and K. Fortuniak (1999), Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climatic change, Clim. Change, 42(1), 243–283.
18. Guhathakurta, P., O. P. Sreejith, and P. A. Menon (2011), Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 120(3), 359–373.
19. Gutowski, W. J., Jr., S. G. Decker, R. A. Donavon, Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle (2003), Temporal-spatial scales of observed and simulated precipitation in central US climate, J. Clim., 16(22), 3841–3847.
20. Gutowski, W. J., Jr., R. W. Arritt, S. Kawazoe, D. M. Flory, E. S. Takle, S. Biner, D. Caya, R. G. Jones, R. Laprise, and L. R. Leung (2010), Regional extreme monthly precipitation simulated by NARCCAP RCMs, J. Hydrometeorol., 11(6), 1373–1379.
21. Harding, K. J., P. K. Snyder, and S. Liess (2013), Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 12,522–12,536, doi:10.1002/2013JD019994.
22. Hosking, J. R. M., and J. R. Wallis (2005), Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge.
23. Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, and J. Woollen (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77(3), 437–471.
24. Kao, S.-C., and A. R. Ganguly (2011), Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D16119, doi:10.1029/2010JD015529.
25. Kawazoe, S., and W. Gutowski (2013), Regional, very heavy daily precipitation in CMIP5 simulations, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 1228–1242, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-0112.1.
26. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers (2000), Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere– ocean GCM, J. Clim., 13(21), 3760–3788.
27. Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl (2007), Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations, J. Clim., 20(8), 1419–1444.
28. Kiktev, D., D. M. Sexton, L. Alexander, and C. K. Folland (2003), Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes, J. Clim., 16(22), 3560–3571.
29. Kishtawal, C. M., D. Niyogi, M. Tewari, R. A. Pielke, and J. M. Shepherd (2010), Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India, Int. J. Clim., 30(13), 1908–1916.
30. Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., U. Lall, and H.-H. Kwon (2009), Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003, J. Clim., 22(18), 4737–4746.
31. Laprise, R. (2014), Comment on “The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models” by Racherla et al., J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 3877–3881, doi:10.1002/2013JD019945.
32. Leung, L. R., S. Zhong, Y. Qian, and Y. Liu (2004), Evaluation of regional climate simulations of the 1998 and 1999 East Asian Summer Monsoon using the GAME/HUBEX observational data, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 82(6), 1695–1713.
33. Mani, N. J., E. Suhas, and B. N. Goswami (2009), Can global warming make Indian monsoon weather less predictable?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08811, doi:10.1029/2009GL037989.
34. Mann, H. B. (1945), Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259.
35. Maurer, E. P., and H. G. Hidalgo (2008), Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: An intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12(2), 551–563.
36. Menon, A., A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler (2013), Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models, Earth Syst. Dyn., 4(2), 1–24.
37. Min, S.-K., X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl (2011), Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes, Nature, 470(7334), 378–381.
38. Mishra, V., and D. P. Lettenmaier (2011), Climatic trends in major U.S. urban areas, 1950–2009, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16401, doi:10.1029/2011GL048255.
39. Mishra, V., K. A. Cherkauer, and S. Shukla (2010), Assessment of drought due to historic climate variability and projected future climate change in the midwestern United States, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 46–68, doi:10.1175/2009JHM1156.1.
40. Mishra, V., F. Dominguez, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2012a), Urban precipitation extremes: How reliable are regional climate models?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L03407, doi:10.1029/2011GL050658.
41. Mishra, V., J. M. Wallace, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2012b), Relationship between hourly extreme precipitation and local air temperature in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16403, doi:10.1029/2012GL052790.
42. Mohapatra, P. K., and R. D. Singh (2003), Flood management in India, Nat. Hazards, 28(1), 131–143.
43. O’Gorman, P. A., and T. Schneider (2009), The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 106(35), 14,773–14,777.
44. Piani, C., J. O. Haerter, and E. Coppola (2010), Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 99(1–2), 187–192.
45. Racherla, P. N., D. T. Shindell, and G. S. Faluvegi (2012), The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D20118, doi:10.1029/2012JD018091.
46. Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, and A. K. Jaswal (2008), Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035143.
47. Rajendran, K., S. Sajani, C. B. Jayasankar, and A. Kitoh (2013), How dependent is climate change projection of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and extreme events on model resolution?, Curr. Sci. (00113891), 104(10), 1409.
48. Rojas, M. (2006), Multiply nested regional climate simulation for southern South America: Sensitivity to model resolution, Mon. Weather Rev., 134(8), 2208–2223.
49. Rosenberg, E. A., P. W. Keys, D. B. Booth, D. Hartley, J. Burkey, A. C. Steinemann, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2010), Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State, Clim. Change, 102(1–2), 319–349.
50. Rummukainen, M., J. Räisänen, B. Bringfelt, A. Ullerstig, A. Omstedt, U. Willén, U. Hansson, and C. Jones (2001), A regional climate model for northern Europe: Model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations, Clim. Dyn., 17(5–6), 339–359.
51. Sabin, T. P., R. Krishnan, J. Ghattas, S. Denvil, J.-L. Dufresne, F. Hourdin, and T. Pascal (2013), High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1658-8.
52. Salathe, E. P., Jr., L. R. Leung, Y. Qian, and Y. Zhang (2010), Regional climate model projections for the state of Washington, Clim. Change, 102(1–2), 51–75.
53. Sen, P. K. (1968), Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63(324), 1379–1389.
54. Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and D. Bronaugh (2013), Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2473–2493, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50188.
55. Sperber, K. R., H. Annamalai, I.-S. Kang, A. Kitoh, A. Moise, A. Turner, B. Wang, and T. Zhou (2012), The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century, Clim. Dyn., 41(9–10), 2711–2744.
56. Sugiyama, M., H. Shiogama, and S. Emori (2010), Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 107(2), 571–575.
57. Sun, Y., S. Solomon, A. Dai, and R. W. Portmann (2007), How often will it rain?, J. Clim., 20(19), 4801–4818.
58. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl (2012), An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93(4), 485–498.
59. Teutschbein, C., and J. Seibert (2012), Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456, 12–29.
60. Toreti, A., P. Naveau, M. Zampieri, A. Schindler, E. Scoccimarro, E. Xoplaki, H. A. Dijkstra, S. Gualdi, and J. Luterbacher (2013), Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4887–4892, doi:10.1002/grl.50940.
61. Tripathi, O. P., and F. Dominguez (2013), Effects of spatial resolution in the simulation of daily and subdaily precipitation in the southwestern US, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 7591–7605, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50590.
62. Vittal, H., S. Karmakar, and S. Ghosh (2013), Diametric changes in trends and patterns of extreme rainfall over India from pre-1950 to post-1950, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3253–3258, doi:10.1002/grl.50631.
63. Walther, A., J.-H. Jeong, G. Nikulin, C. Jones, and D. Chen (2013), Evaluation of the warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation over Sweden simulated by the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, Atmos. Res., 119, 131–139.
64. Watanabe, M., T. Suzuki, R. O’ishi, Y. Komuro, S. Watanabe, S. Emori, T. Takemura, M. Chikira, T. Ogura, and M. Sekiguchi (2010), Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity, J. Clim., 23(23), 6312–6335.
65. Wehner, M. F., R. L. Smith, G. Bala, and P. Duffy (2010), The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model, Clim. Dyn., 34(2–3), 241–247.
66. Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2004), Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Clim. Change, 62(1–3), 189–216.
67. Yatagai, A., K. Kamiguchi, O. Arakawa, A. Hamada, N. Yasutomi, and A. Kitoh (2012), APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93(9), 1401–1415.
68. Yue, S., and C. Y. Wang (2002), Regional Streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 933–946, doi:10.1002/joc.781.