Modelling the epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination in Germany - A Bayesian approach

Vaccine

Volumn 32, Issue 40, 2014, Pages 5250-5257

  Weidemann, Felix ^a   Dehnert, Manuel ^a,b   Koch, Judith ^a   Wichmann, Ole ^a   Höhle, Michael ^a,c  

^a ROBERT KOCH INSTITUTE   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES WEIHENSTEPHAN TRIESDORF   (Germany)

^c STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Bayesian inference; Epidemiological impact; Rotavirus; Routine vaccination; Transmission modelling; Vaccine effectiveness

Indexed keywords

ROTAVIRUS VACCINE;

ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CHILD; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; GERMANY; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HUMAN; INFANT; NEWBORN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; RISK FACTOR; ROTAVIRUS INFECTION; ADOLESCENT; GASTROENTERITIS; HERD IMMUNITY; MIDDLE AGED; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PRESCHOOL CHILD; ROTAVIRUS; ROTAVIRUS INFECTIONS; SEASON; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; TRANSMISSION; VACCINATION; VIROLOGY; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; BAYES THEOREM; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; GASTROENTERITIS; GERMANY; HUMANS; IMMUNITY, HERD; INFANT; MARKOV CHAINS; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; ROTAVIRUS; ROTAVIRUS INFECTIONS; ROTAVIRUS VACCINES; SEASONS; VACCINATION; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84906061669     PISSN: 0264410X     EISSN: 18732518     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.06.090     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Tate J.E., Burton A.H., Boschi-Pinto C., Steele A.D., Duque J., Parashar U.D. 2008 estimate of worldwide rotavirus-associated mortality in children younger than 5 years before the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2012, 12:136-141.
2. Aidelsburger P., Grabein K., Boehm K., Dietl M., Wasem J., Koch J., et al. Cost-effectiveness of childhood rotavirus vaccination in Germany. Vaccine 2014, 32:1964-1974.
3. Buttery J.P., Kirkwood C. Rotavirus vaccines in developed countries. Curr Opin Infect Dis 2007, 20:253-258. 10.1097/QCO.0b013e32813aeaac.
4. Giaquinto C., Van Damme P., Huet F., Gothefors L., Van der Wielen M., RS Group Costs of community-acquired pediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis in 7 European countries: the reveal study. J Infect Dis 2007, 195:S36-S44.
5. Block S.L., Vesikari T., Goveia M.G., Rivers S.B., Adeyi B.A., Dallas M.J., et al. Efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of a pentavalent human-bovine (WC3) reassortant rotavirus vaccine at the end of shelf life. Pediatrics 2007, 119:11-18.
6. Ruiz-Palacios G.M., Pérez-Schael I., Velázquez F.R., Abate H., Breuer T., Clemens S.C., et al. Safety and efficacy of an attenuated vaccine against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis. N Engl J Med 2006, 354:11-22.
7. Vesikari T., Karvonen A., Prymula R., Schuster V., Tejedor J.C., Cohen R., et al. Efficacy of human rotavirus vaccine against rotavirus gastroenteritis during the first 2 years of life in European infants: randomised, double-blind controlled study. Lancet 2007, 370:1757-1763.
8. Vesikari T., Matson D.O., Dennehy P., Van Damme P., Santosham M., Rodriguez Z., et al. Safety and efficacy of a pentavalent human-bovine (WC3) reassortant rotavirus vaccine. N Engl J Med 2006, 354:23-33.
9. Koch J., Wiese-Posselt M., Remschmidt C., Wichmann O., Bertelsmann H., Garbe E., et al. Background paper to the recommendation for routine rotavirus vaccination of infants in Germany. Bundesgesundheitsblatt 2013, 2013:957-984.
10. Vesikari T. The role of scientific societies in the decision-making process to recommend new vaccines: the example of rotavirus in Europe. J Public Health 2008, 16:287-290.
11. Dudareva-Vizule S., Koch J., an der Heiden M., Oberle D., Keller-Stanislawski B., Wichmann O. Impact of rotavirus vaccination in regions with low and moderate vaccine uptake in Germany. Hum Vaccines Immunother 2012, 8:1407-1415.
12. Pitzer V.E., Viboud C., Simonsen L., Steiner C., Panozzo C.A., Alonso W.J., et al. Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics. Science 2009, 325:290-294.
13. Atchison C., Lopman B., Edmunds W.J. Modelling the seasonality of rotavirus disease and the impact of vaccination in England and Wales. Vaccine 2010, 28:3118-3126.
14. Atkins K.E., Shim E., Pitzer V.E., Galvani A.P. Impact of rotavirus vaccination on epidemiological dynamics in England and Wales. Vaccine 2012, 30:552-564.
15. Shim E., Castillo-Chavez C. The epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination programs in the United States and Mexico. Mathematical and statistical estimation approaches in epidemiology 2009, p303-p323. Springer, Netherlands. G. Chowell, J. Hyman, L.A. Bettencourt, C. Castillo-Chavez (Eds.).
16. de Blasio B.F., Kasymbekova K., Flem E. Dynamic model of rotavirus transmission and the impact of rotavirus vaccination in Kyrgyzstan. Vaccine 2010, 28:7923-7932.
17. Weidemann F., Dehnert M., Koch J., Wichmann O., Höhle M. Bayesian parameter inference for dynamic infectious disease modelling: rotavirus in Germany. Stat. Med. 2013, 33:1580-1599.
18. Martinón-Torres F., Alejandro M.B., Collazo L.R., Lastres J.M.S., Díaz S.P., Pillado M.T.S., et al. Effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Spain. Hum Vaccines 2011, 7:757-761.
19. Krause G., Altmann D., Faensen D., Porten K., Benzler J., Pfoch T., et al. SurvNet electronic surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks, Germany. Emerg Infect Dis 2007, 13:1548-1555.
20. Rosner B., Stark K., Werber D. Epidemiology of reported Yersinia enterocolitica infections in Germany, 2001-2008. BMC Public Health 2010, 10:337.
21. Federal Bureau of Statistics, GENESIS Online Database.
22. Soares-Weiser K., MacLehose H., Bergman H., Ben-Aharon I., Nagpal S., Goldberg E., et al. Vaccines for preventing rotavirus diarrhoea: vaccines in use. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2012, 11:CD008521.
23. Adlhoch C., Hoehne M., Littmann M., Marques A.M., Lerche A., Dehnert M., et al. Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness and case-control study on risk factors for breakthrough infections in Germany, 2010-2011. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2013, 32:e82-e89. 10.1097/INF.0b013e3182720b71.
24. Orenstein W.A., Bernier R.H., Hinman A.R. Assessing vaccine efficacy in the field: further observations. Epidemiol Rev 1988, 10:212-241.
25. Siedler A., Rieck T., Reuss A., Walter D., Poggensee G., Poethko-Müller C., et al. Estimating vaccination coverage in the absence of immunisation registers - the German experience. Euro Surveill. 2012, 17(17). pii=20152.
26. Rieck T., Feig M., Eckmanns T., Benzler J., Siedler A., Wichmann O. Vaccination coverage among children in Germany estimated by analysis of health insurance claims data. Hum Vaccines Immunother 2014, 10:0-1.
27. Paulke-Korinek M., Kollaritsch H., Aberle S.W., Zwazl I., Schmidle-Loss B., Vécsei A., et al. Sustained low hospitalization rates after four years of rotavirus mass vaccination in Austria. Vaccine 2013, 31:2686-2691.
28. Payne D.C., Staat M.A., Edwards K.M., Szilagyi P.G., Weinberg G.A., Hall C.B., et al. Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination upon childhood hospitalizations in 3 US Counties, 2006-2009. Clin Infect Dis 2011, 53:245-253.
29. Lopman B.A., Curns A.T., Yen C., Parashar U.D. Infant rotavirus vaccination may provide indirect protection to older children and adults in the United States. J Infect Dis 2011, 204:980-986.
30. Pitzer V.E., Atkins K.E., de Blasio B.F., Van Effelterre T., Atchison C.J., Harris J.P., et al. Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination: comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models. PLoS ONE 2012, 7:e42320.
31. Pitzer V.E., Patel M.M., Lopman B.A., Viboud C., Parashar U.D., Grenfell B.T. Modeling rotavirus strain dynamics in developed countries to understand the potential impact of vaccination on genotype distributions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:19353-19358.
32. Fischer T.K., Valentiner-Branth P., Steinsland H., Perch M., Santos G., Aaby P., et al. Protective immunity after natural rotavirus infection: a community cohort study of newborn children in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. J Infect Dis 2002, 186:593-597.
33. Mrukowicz J.Z., Thompson J., Reed G.W., Tollefson S.J., Kobayashi M., Araki K., et al. Epidemiology of rotavirus in infants and protection against symptomatic illness afforded by primary infection and vaccination. Vaccine 1999, 17:745-753.
34. Velázquez F.R., Matson D.O., Calva J.J., Guerrero M.L., Morrow A.L., Carter-Campbell S., et al. Rotavirus infection in infants as protection against subsequent infections. N Engl J Med 1996, 335:1022-1028.
35. Anderson E.J., Weber S.G. Rotavirus infection in adults. Lancet Infect Dis 2004, 4:91-99.
36. Pickering L.K., Bartlett A.V., Reves R.R., Morrow A. Asymptomatic excretion of rotavirus before and after rotavirus diarrhea in children in day care centers. J Pediatr 1988, 112:361-365.
37. Wilde J., Yolken R., Willoughby R., Eiden J. Improved detection of rotavirus shedding by polymerase chain reaction. Lancet 1991, 337:323-326.
38. Clark H.F., Amy E.M., Diane L., Megan R., Mark J.D. Unexpectedly high burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in very young infants. BMC Pediatr. 2010, 10:40.
39. Clemens J., Rao M., Ahmed F., Ward R., Huda S., Chakraborty J., et al. Breast-feeding and the risk of life-threatening rotavirus diarrhea: prevention or postponement?. Pediatrics 1993, 92:680-685.
40. Pickering L.K., Morrow A.L., Herrera I., O'Ryan M., Estes M.K., Guilliams S.E., et al. Effect of maternal rotavirus immunization on milk and serum antibody titers. J Infect Dis 1995, 172:723-728.
41. Ward R.L., Bernstein D.I., Shukla R., McNeal M.M., Sherwood J.R., Young E.C., et al. Protection of adults rechallenged with a human rotavirus. J Infect Dis 1990, 161:440-445.
42. Mossong J., Hens N., Jit M., Beutels P., Auranen K., Mikolajczyk R., et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med 2008, 5:e74.
43. Soriano-Gabarró M., Mrukowicz J., Vesikari T., Verstraeten T. Burden of rotavirus disease in European Union Countries. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2006, 25:S7-S11.