Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 111, Issue 32, 2014, Pages 11646-11651

  Séférian, Roland ^a,b   Bopp, Laurent ^b   Gehlen, Marion ^b   Swingedouw, Didier ^b,c   Mignot, Juliette ^d,e   Guilyardi, Eric ^d,f   Servonnat, Jérôme ^b  

^a CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

^b LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DE BORDEAUX   (France)

^d UNIVERSITÉ PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE   (France)

^e UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^f University of Birmingham   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Ecosystem management; Forecast; Marine biogeochemistry

Indexed keywords

IRON; NITRATE;

ADVECTION; ARTICLE; BIOGEOCHEMISTRY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; FORECASTING; MARINE BIOLOGY; MARINE ENVIRONMENT; NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY; NONHUMAN; NUTRIENT AVAILABILITY; NUTRIENT CONTENT; PACIFIC OCEAN; PH; PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY; PHYTOPLANKTON; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PRODUCTIVITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; TROPICAL MARINE PRODUCTIVITY;

ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT; FORECAST; MARINE BIOGEOCHEMISTRY;

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; ANIMALS; AQUATIC ORGANISMS; CARBON CYCLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOSYSTEM; FISHERIES; FOOD CHAIN; FORECASTING; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PACIFIC OCEAN; PHYTOPLANKTON; SEAWATER; TEMPERATURE; TROPICAL CLIMATE;

EID: 84905966000     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1315855111     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Food and Agriculture Organization (2012) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture- 2012 (Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
2. Chavez FP, et al. (1999) Biological and chemical response of the equatorial pacific ocean to the 1997-98 El Nino. Science 286(5447):2126-2131
3. Waliser DE, Murtugudde R, Strutton P, Li J-L (2005) Subseasonal organization of ocean chlorophyll: Prospects for prediction based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L23602
4. Messié M, Chavez FP (2012) A global analysis of ENSO synchrony: The oceans' biological response to physical forcing. J Geophys Res 117:C09001
5. Martinez E, Antoine D, D'Ortenzio F, Gentili B (2009) Climate-driven basin-scale decadal oscillations of oceanic phytoplankton. Science 326(5957):1253-1256
6. Chikamoto Y, Kimoto M, Ishii M, Mochizuki T (2013) An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC. Clim Dyn 40: 1201-1222
7. Wang B, et al. (2008) Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Clim Dyn 33:93-117
8. Zwiers F (1996) Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Clim Dyn 12:825-847
9. Barlow M, Nigam S, Berbery EH (2001) ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and US summertime precipitation, drought, and stream flow. J Clim 14:2105-2128
10. Lehodey P, et al. (1998) Predicting skipjack tuna forage distributions in the equatorial Pacific using a coupled dynamical bio-geochemical model. Fish Oceanogr 7:317-325
11. Chavez FP, Ryan J, Lluch-Cota SE, Niquen C M (2003) From anchovies to sardines and back: Multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299(5604):217-221
12. Stock CA, et al. (2011) On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources. Prog Oceanogr 88:1-27
13. Behrenfeld MJ (2005) Carbon-based ocean productivity and phytoplankton physiology from space. Global Biogeochem Cycles 19:GB1006
14. Carr M-E, et al. (2006) A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 53:741-770
15. Henson SA, Raitsos D, Dunne JP, McQuatters-Gollop A (2009) Decadal variability in biogeochemical models: Comparison with a 50-year ocean colour dataset. Geophys Res Lett 36:L21601
16. Field CB, Behrenfeld MJ, Randerson JT, Falkowski P (1998) Primary production of the biosphere: Integrating terrestrial and oceanic components. Science 281(5374): 237-240
17. Behrenfeld MJ, et al. (2001) Biospheric primary production during an ENSO transition. Science 291(5513):2594-2597
18. Behrenfeld MJ, et al. (2006) Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature 444(7120):752-755
19. Rousseaux CS, Gregg WW (2012) Climate variability and phytoplankton composition in the Pacific Ocean. J Geophys Res 117:C10006
20. Chavez FP, Messié M, Pennington JT (2011) Marine primary production in relation to climate variability and change. Annu Rev Mar Sci 3:227-260
21. Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163-172
22. Rodgers KB, Aumont O, Menkes C, Gorgues T (2008) Decadal variations in equatorial Pacific ecosystems and ferrocline/pycnocline decoupling. Global Biogeochem Cycles 22:GB2019
23. Gierach MM, Lee T, Turk D, McPhaden MJ (2012) Biological response to the 1997-98 and 2009-10 El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 39: L10602
24. Gordon RM, Coale KH, Johnson KS (1997) Iron distributions in the equatorial Pacific: Implications for new production. Limnol Oceanogr 42(3):419-431
25. Gorgues T, et al. (2010) Revisiting the La Niña 1998 phytoplankton blooms in the equatorial Pacific. Deep Sea Res Part I Oceanogr Res Pap 57:567-576
26. Schneider B, et al. (2008) Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models. Biogeosciences 5:597-614
27. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 93:485-498
28. Swingedouw D, Mignot J, Labetoulle S, Guilyardi E, Madec G (2013) Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model. Clim Dyn 40: 2381-2399
29. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609-1625
30. Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453(7191):84-88
31. Kim H-M, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys Res Lett 39:L10701
32. Lorenz EN (1965) A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus 17:321-333
33. Boer GJ, Kharin VV, Merryfield WJ (2013) Decadal predictability and forecast skill. Clim Dyn 41(7-8):1817-1833
34. Frankignoul C (1985) Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and airsea feedback in the middle latitudes. Rev Geophys 23:357-390
35. Mignot J, Frankignoul C (2003) On the interannual variability of surface salinity in the Atlantic. Clim Dyn 20:555-565
36. Chen J, et al. (2014) Decadal modes of sea surface salinity and the water cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean: The anomalous late 1990s. Deep Sea Res Part I Oceanogr Res Pap 84:38-49
37. Wang XJ, Le Borgne R, Murtugudde R, Busalacchi AJ, Behrenfeld MJ (2008) Spatial and temporal variations in dissolved and particulate organic nitrogen in the equatorial Pacific: Biological and physical influences. Biogeosciences 5(6):1705-1721
38. Wang XJ, Murtugudde R, Le Borgne R (2009) Nitrogen uptake and regeneration pathways in the equatorial Pacific: A basin scale modeling study. Biogeosciences 6(11):2647-2660
39. Di Lorenzo E, Ohman MD (2013) A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(7):2496-2499
40. Servonnat J, et al. (2014) Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework. Clim Dyn, 10.1007/s00382-014-2184-7
41. Rayner NA, et al. (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14): 4407
42. Behrenfeld MJ, Falkowski PG (1997) Photosynthetic rates derived from satellite-based chlorophyll concentration. Limnol Oceanogr 42:1-20
43. Persechino A, Mignot J, Swingedouw D, Labetoulle S, Guilyardi E (2013) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. Clim Dyn 40:2359-2380
44. Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Bladé I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Climate 12(7): 1990-2009.