How to quantify uncertainty and variability in life cycle assessment: The case of greenhouse gas emissions of gas power generation in the US

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 9, Issue 7, 2014, Pages

  Hauck, M ^a   Steinmann, Z J N ^a   Laurenzi, I J ^b   Karuppiah, R ^b   Huijbregts, M A J ^a  

^a RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN   (Netherlands)

^b EXXONMOBIL UPSTREAM RESEARCH COMPANY   (United States)

Author keywords

life cycle greenhouse gas emissions; natural gas; uncertainty; variability

Indexed keywords

COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANTS; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; MONTE CARLO METHODS; NATURAL GAS; SUPPLY CHAINS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

GAS-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION; INHERENT CHARACTERISTICS; LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT (LCA); LIFE-CYCLE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY; VARIABILITY;

LIFE CYCLE;

EID: 84905216431     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074005     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Allen D T et al 2009 Propulsion and Power Rapid Response Research and Development (R&D) Support Delivery Order 0011: Advanced Propulsion Fuels Research and Development-Subtask: Framework and Guidance for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Footprints of Aviation Fuels (Dayton, US: The Aviation Fuel Life Cycle Assessement Working Group) 131 www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/ Energy%20Analysis/Life%20Cycle%20Analysis/ESTGHGFtprntsAvFuels2009.pdf accessed 11 March 2014
2. Black J 2010 Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity (Pittsburg, PA: National Energy Technology Laboratory) 626 Report Number DOE/NETL-2010/1397 Revision 2a (2013)
3. Burnham A, Han J, Clark C E, Wang M, Dunn J B and Palou-Rivera I 2011 Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of shale gas, natural gas, coal, and petroleum Environ. Sci. Technol. 46 619-27
4. EIA 2011a Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (Washington, DC: US Energy Information Administration)
5. EIA 2011b Form Eia-923 Detailed Data www.eia.gov/electricitydata/eia923/ accessed 26 March 2014
6. EPA 2013 Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2011 (Washington, USA: US Environmental Protection Agency) 550
7. EPA/GRI 1996a Methane emissions from natural gas industry Technical Report 152 vol 2 p
8. EPA/GRI 1996b Methane emissions from natural gas industry General Methodology 152 vol 3 p
9. EPA/GRI 1996c Methane emissions from natural gas industry Statistical Methodology 138 vol 4 p
10. Faist Emmenegger M, Heck T, Jungbluth N and Tuchschmid M 2007 Erdgas. Sachbilanzen von Energiesystement: Grundlagen fuer den oekologischen Vergleich von Energiesystem in Oekobilanzen fuer die Schweiz (Dübendorf: Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories) Final Report ecoinvent No 6-V
11. Frischknecht R, Tuchschmid M, Faist Emmeneger M, Bauer C and Dones R 2007 Strommix Und Stromnetz. Ecoinvent Report No. 6, V 2.0 Sachbilanzen von Energiesystemen: Grundlagen fuer den oekologischen Vergleich von Energiesystemen in Oekobilanzen fuer die Schweiz ed R Dones (Duebendorf, CH: Paul Scherrer Institut Villingen, Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories) 143
12. Hauck M, Hendriks H W M, Huijbregts M A J, Ragas A M J, van de Meent D and Hendriks A J 2011 Parameter uncertainty in modeling bioaccumulation factors of fish Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 30 403-12
13. Huijbregts M 1998 Application of uncertainty and variability in LCA Int. J. of Life Cycle Assess. 3 273-80
14. Huijbregts M A J, Gilijamse W, Ragas A M J and Reijnders L 2003 Evaluating uncertainty in environmental life-cycle assessment. a case study comparing two insulation options for a dutch one-family dwelling Environ. Sci. Technol. 37 2600-8 (Pubitemid 36644772)
15. IPCC 2007 Climate change 2007: the physical science basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge, New York: IPCC)
16. ISO 2006 ISO: 14040: Environmental Management - Life Cycle Assessments - Principles and Framework. Technical Standard (Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Standardization)
17. Jaramillo P, Griffin W M and Matthews H S 2007 Comparative life-cycle air emissions of coal, domestic natural gas, lng, and sng for electricity generation Environ. Sci. Technol. 41 6290-6 (Pubitemid 47395016)
18. Jiang M, Griffin W M, Hendrickson C, Jaramillo P, VanBriesen J and Venkatesh A 2011 Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of marcellus shale gas Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034014
19. Littlefield J, Marriott J and Skone T J 2012 Life cycle GHG inventory sensitivity to changes in natural gas system parameters Online Presentation of National Energy Technology Laboratory www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/ Energy%20Analysis/Life%20Cycle%20Analysis/599.pdf accessed 11 March 2014
20. Maurice B, Frischknecht R, Coelho-Schwirtz V and Hungerbühler K 2000 Uncertainty analysis in life cycle inventory. application to the production of electricity with french coal power plants J. Cleaner Prod. 8 95-108 (Pubitemid 30566142)
21. Morgan M G and Henrion M 1990 A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (New York: Cambridge University Press)
22. Myhre G et al 2013 Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed T F Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, M Tignor, S K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and P M Midgley 659-740
23. NETL 2013 Life cycle analysis: natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant (Pittsburgh, PA: Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory) Report Number DOE/NETL 403-110509
24. Ragas A M J, Etienne R S, Willemsen F H and van de Meent D 1999 Assessing model uncertainty for environmental decision making: a case study of the coherence of independently derived environmental quality objectives for air and water Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 18 1856-67 (Pubitemid 29347543)
25. Shindell D T, Koch F G, Schmidt D M, Unger G A and Bauer SE N 2009 Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions Science 326 716-8
26. Steinmann Z N, Hauck M, Karuppiah R, Laurenzi I and Huijbregts M J 2014 A methodology for separating uncertainty and variability in the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of coal fueled power generation in the USA Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 19 1146-55
27. Venkatesh A, Jaramillo P, Griffin W M and Matthews H S 2011 Uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from United States natural gas end-uses and its effects on policy Environ. Sci. Technol. 45 8182-9
28. Venkatesh A, Jaramillo P, Griffin W M and Matthews H S 2012 Implications of changing natural gas prices in the United States electricity sector for SO2, NOx and life cycle GHG emissions Environ. Res. Lett. 7 034018