Beyond a warming fingerprint: Individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

Global Change Biology

Volumn 20, Issue 9, 2014, Pages 2841-2855

  Rapacciuolo, Giovanni ^a,b   Maher, Sean P ^a,b   Schneider, Adam C ^a   Hammond, Talisin T ^a   Jabis, Meredith D ^b   Walsh, Rachel E ^a   Iknayan, Kelly J ^a,b   Walden, Genevieve K ^a   Oldfather, Meagan F ^a   Ackerly, David D ^a   Beissinger, Steven R ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Biogeographic responses; California; Climate change; Climatic water balance; Elevation; Fingerprint; Range shifts; Temperature

Indexed keywords

BIOGEOGRAPHY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; ELEVATION; TEMPERATURE; WATER BUDGET;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

ACCLIMATIZATION; ALTITUDE; ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; BIRD; BUTTERFLY; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FORECASTING; MAMMAL; PHYSIOLOGY; PLANT PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PROCEDURES; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; UNITED STATES;

ACCLIMATIZATION; ALTITUDE; ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION; ANIMALS; BIRDS; BUTTERFLIES; CALIFORNIA; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING; MAMMALS; PLANT PHYSIOLOGICAL PHENOMENA; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY;

EID: 84905095352     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12638     Document Type: Review

References (97)

1. Ackerly DD, Loarie SR, Cornwell WK, Weiss SB, Hamilton H, Branciforte R, Kraft NJB (2010) The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 476-487.
2. Aragón P, Lobo JM, Olalla-tárraga MÁ, Rodríguez MÁ (2010) The contribution of contemporary climate to ectothermic and endothermic vertebrate distributions in a glacial refuge. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 40-49.
3. Archaux F (2004) Breeding upwards when climate is becoming warmer: no bird response in the French Alps. Ibis, 146, 138-144.
4. Baldwin BG, Goldman DH, Keil DJ, Patterson R, Rosatti TJ, Wilken DH (2012) The Jepson Manual: Vascular Plants of California (2nd edn). University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
5. Barbour M, Keeler-Wolf T, Schoenherr A (2007) Terrestrial Vegetation of California (3rd edn). University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
6. Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15, 365-377.
7. Bonebrake TC, Mastrandrea MD (2010) Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 12581-12586.
8. Buckley LB, Hurlbert AH, Jetz W (2012) Broad-scale ecological implications of ectothermy and endothermy in changing environments. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 873-885.
9. Cahill AE, Aiello-Lammens ME, Fisher-Reid MC et al. (2012) How does climate change cause extinction? Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 280, 20121890.
10. Calosi P, Bilton DT, Spicer JI (2008) Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change. Biology Letters, 4, 99-102.
11. Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024-1026.
12. Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, Mynsberge AR (2011) Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations. Science, 331, 324-327.
13. Daly C, Neilson RP, Phillips DL (1994) A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 33, 140-158.
14. Daly C, Taylor GH, Gibson WP, Parzybok TW, Johnson GL, Pasteris PA (2000) High-quality spatial climate data sets for the United States and beyond. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers, 43, 1957-1962.
15. Das AJ, Stephenson NL, Flint A, Das T, van Mantgem PJ (2013) Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests. PLoS ONE, 8, e69917.
16. Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science, 292, 673-679.
17. Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science, 332, 53-58.
18. De Frenne P, Graae BJ, Rodríguez-Sánchez F et al. (2013a) Latitudinal gradients as natural laboratories to infer species' responses to temperature. Journal of Ecology, 101, 784-795.
19. De Frenne P, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Coomes DA et al. (2013b) Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, 18561-18565.
20. Dobrowski SZ, Crimmins SM, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, Mynsberge AR (2011) Response to comments on 'Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations'. Science, 334, 177-177.
21. Dobrowski SZ, Abatzoglou J, Swanson AK, Greenberg JA, Mynsberge AR, Holden ZA, Schwartz MK (2013) The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century. Global Change Biology, 19, 241-251.
22. Dolanc CR, Thorne JH, Safford HD (2013) Widespread shifts in the demographic structure of subalpine forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, 1934-2007. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 264-276.
23. Dole KP, Loik ME, Sloan LC (2003) The relative importance of climate change and the physiological effects of CO2 on freezing tolerance for the future distribution of Yucca brevifolia. Global and Planetary Change, 36, 137-146.
24. Drew J (2011) The role of natural history institutions and bioinformatics in conservation biology. Conservation Biology, 25, 1250-1252.
25. Eastman LM, Morelli TL, Rowe KC, Conroy CJ, Moritz C (2012) Size increase in high elevation ground squirrels over the last century. Global Change Biology, 18, 1499-1508.
26. Eckert AJ, Eckert ML (2007) Environmental and ecological effects on size class distributions of Foxtail Pine (Pinus balfouriana, Pinaceae) in the Klamath Mountains, California. Madroño, 54, 117-125.
27. Epps CW, Cullough DRMC, Wehausen JD, Bleich VC, Rechel JL (2004) Effects of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain sheep in California. Conservation Biology, 18, 102-113.
28. Flint LE, Flint AL (2012) Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis. Ecological Processes, 1, 2.
29. Flint LE, Flint AL, Thorne JH, Boynton R (2013) Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance. Ecological Processes, 2, 25.
30. Foden WB, Butchart SHM, Stuart SN et al. (2013) Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals. PLoS ONE, 8, e65427.
31. Forister ML, McCall AC, Sanders NJ et al. (2010) Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 2088-2092.
32. Forister ML, Fordyce JA, McCall AC, Shapiro AM (2011a) A complete record from colonization to extinction reveals density dependence and the importance of winter conditions for a population of the silvery blue, Glaucopsyche lygdamus. Journal of Insect Science, 11, 1-9.
33. Forister ML, Jahner JP, Casner KL, Wilson JS, Shapiro AM (2011b) The race is not to the swift: long-term data reveal pervasive declines in California's low-elevation butterfly fauna. Ecology, 92, 2222-2235.
34. Guarín A, Taylor AH (2005) Drought triggered tree mortality in mixed conifer forests in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 218, 229-244.
35. Harrison S, Damschen EI, Grace JB (2010) Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 19362-19367.
36. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology, 12, 450-455.
37. Hijmans RJ (2011) Comment on 'Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations'. Science, 334, 177.
38. Holdridge LR (1967) Life Zone Ecology. Tropical Science Center, San Jose, Costa Rica.
39. Huey RB, Kearney MR, Krockenberger A, Holtum J, a M, Jess M, Williams SE (2012) Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological sciences, 367, 1665-1679.
40. Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 15, 56-61.
41. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE), pp. 7-22. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
42. Jin Y, Goulden ML (2013) Ecological consequences of variation in precipitation: separating short- vs. long-term effects using satellite data. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 358-370.
43. Karban R, Strauss S (2004) Physiological tolerance, climate change, and a northward range shift in the spittlebug, Philaenus spumarius. Ecological Entomology, 29, 251-254.
44. Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11823-11826.
45. Kelly M, Allen-Diaz B, Kobzina N (2005) Digitization of a historic dataset: the Wieslander California vegetation type mapping project. Madroño, 52, 191-201.
46. Kopp CW, Cleland EE (2014) Shifts in plant species elevational range limits and abundances observed over nearly five decades in a western North America mountain range. Journal of Vegetation Science, 25, 135-146.
47. La Sorte FA, Jetz W (2010) Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 277, 3401-3410.
48. Langan SJ, Ewers FW, Davis SD (1997) Xylem dysfunction caused by water stress and freezing in two species of co-occurring chaparral shrubs. Plant, Cell and Environment, 20, 425-437.
49. Larrucea ES, Brussard PF (2008) Shift in location of pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis) habitat in response to changing environments. Journal of Arid Environments, 72, 1636-1643.
50. Leadley P, Pereira HM, Alkemade R, Fernandez-Manjarrés JF, Proença V, Scharlemann JPW, Walpole MJ (2010) Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services. Technical Series no. 50, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal.
51. Lenoir J, Gégout J-C, Guisan A et al. (2010) Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate. Ecography, 2005, 295-303.
52. Lloyd AH (1997) Response of tree-line populations of foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana) to climate variation over the last 1000 years. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 27, 936-942.
53. Lloyd AH, Graumlich LJ (1997) Holocene dynamics of treeline forests in the Sierra Nevada. Ecology, 78, 1199-1210.
54. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462, 1052-1055.
55. Lutz JA, van Wagtendonk JW, Franklin JF (2009) Twentieth-century decline of large-diameter trees in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 257, 2296-2307.
56. Lutz JA, van Wagtendonk JW, Franklin JF (2010) Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park. Journal of Biogeography, 37, 936-950.
57. McCain CM, Colwell RK (2011) Assessing the threat to montane biodiversity from discordant shifts in temperature and precipitation in a changing climate. Ecology Letters, 14, 1236-1245.
58. McCain CM, King SRB (2014) Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 20, 1760-1769.
59. McDowell N, Pockman WT, Allen CD et al. (2008) Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought? New Phytologist, 178, 719-739.
60. McLaughlin J, Hellmann J, Boggs C, Ehrlich P (2002) The route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly. Oecologia, 132, 538-548.
61. Millar CI, Westfall RD, Delany DL, King JC, Graumlich LJ (2004) Response of subalpine conifers in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, to 20th-century warming and decadal climate variability. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 36, 181-200.
62. Morelli TL, Smith AB, Kastely CR, Mastroserio I, Moritz C, Beissinger SR (2012) Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 279, 4279-4286.
63. Moritz C, Agudo R (2013) The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline? Science (New York, NY), 341, 504-508.
64. Moritz C, Patton JL, Conroy CJ, Parra JL, White GC, Beissinger SR (2008) Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science, 322, 261-264.
65. Moser S, Ekstrom J, Franco G (2012) Our Changing Climate 2012 Vulnerability & Adaptation to the Increasing Risks from Climate Change in California. Summary Brochure, Sacramento, CA.
66. Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GA, Kent J (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853-858.
67. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
68. Parra JL, Monahan WB (2008) Variability in 20th century climate change reconstructions and its consequences for predicting geographic responses of California mammals. Global Change Biology, 14, 2215-2231.
69. Peñuelas J, Sardans J, Estiarte M et al. (2013) Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere. Global Change Biology, 19, 2303-2338.
70. Pepin NC, Lundquist JD (2008) Temperature trends at high elevations: patterns across the globe. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L14701.
71. Pereyra ME (2011) Effects of snow-related environmental variation on breeding schedules and productivity of a high-altitude population of dusky flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri). The Auk, 128, 746-758.
72. Raven PH, Axelrod DI (1978) Origin and Relationships of the California Flora. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
73. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57-60.
74. Rubidge EM, Monahan WB, Parra JL, Cameron SE, Brashares JS (2010) The role of climate, habitat, and species co-occurrence as drivers of change in small mammal distributions over the past century. Global Change Biology, 17, 696-708.
75. Salzer MW, Hughes MK, Bunn AG, Kipfmueller KF (2009) Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 20348-20353.
76. Schwilk DW, Keeley JE (2012) A plant distribution shift: temperature, drought or past disturbance? PLoS ONE, 7, e31173.
77. Sparks TH (2007) Lateral thinking on data to identify climate impacts. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22, 169-171.
78. Staudinger MD, Carter SL, Cross MS et al. (2013) Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 11, 465-473.
79. Stephenson NL (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. The American Naturalist, 135, 649-670.
80. Stephenson NL (1998) Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 855-870.
81. Stephenson NL, Das AJ (2011) Comment on 'Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations'. Science, 334, 177.
82. Stillman JH (2003) Acclimation capacity underlies susceptibility to climate change. Science, 301, 65.
83. Thorne JH, Morgan BJ, Kennedy JA (2008) Vegetation change over sixty years in the Central Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Madroño, 55, 223-237.
84. Tingley MW, Beissinger SR (2009) Detecting range shifts from historical species occurrences: new perspectives on old data. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24, 625-633.
85. Tingley MW, Beissinger SR (2013) Cryptic loss of montane avian richness and high community turnover over 100 years. Ecology, 94, 598-609.
86. Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 19637-19643.
87. Tingley MW, Koo MS, Moritz C, Rush AC, Beissinger SR (2012) The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges. Global Change Biology, 18, 3279-3290.
88. Trenberth KE, Shea DJ (2005) Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L14703.
89. Urban MC, Tewksbury JJ, Sheldon KS (2012) On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, 279, 2072-2080.
90. Van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL (2007) Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest. Ecology Letters, 10, 909-916.
91. Whittaker RJ (1975) Communities and Ecosystems. MacMillan, New York.
92. Williams SE, Shoo LP, Isaac JL, Hoffmann A, a, Langham G, (2008) Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biology, 6, 2621-2626.
93. Wipf S, Stoeckli V, Bebi P (2009) Winter climate change in alpine tundra: plant responses to changes in snow depth and snowmelt timing. Climatic Change, 94, 105-121.
94. Wolf A, Anderegg W (2011) Comment on 'Changes in climatic in plant species' optimum elevations'. Science, 334, 177.
95. Woodward FI (1987) Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
96. Wullschleger SD, Tschaplinski TJ, Norby RJ (2002) Plant water relations at elevated CO2 - implications for water-limited environments. Plant, Cell and Environment, 25, 319-331.
97. Yang D-S, Conroy CJ, Moritz C (2011) Contrasting responses of Peromyscus mice of Yosemite National Park to recent climate change. Global Change Biology, 17, 2559-2566.