Global meteorological drought-Part 1: Probabilistic monitoring

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 18, Issue 7, 2014, Pages 2657-2667

  Dutra, E ^a   Wetterhall, F ^a   Di Giuseppe, F ^a   Naumann, G ^b   Barbosa, P ^b   Vogt, J ^b   Pozzi, W ^c   Pappenberger, F ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^c Group on Earth Observations   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; DECISION MAKING; DROUGHT; FORECASTING; INFORMATION MANAGEMENT; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS; NEAR-REAL-TIME MONITORING; PRECIPITATION INDICES; PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS; TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSIONS; WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT;

RAIN GAGES;

EID: 84904767657     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-2657-2014     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Belo-Pereira, M., Dutra, E., and Viterbo, P.: Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20101, doi:10.1029/2010jd015481, 2011.
2. Buizza, R., Bidlot, J.-R., Wedi, N., Fuentes, M., Hamrud, M., Holt, G., and Vitart, F.: The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 681-695, doi:10.1002/qj.75, 2007.
3. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
4. Di Giuseppe, F., Molteni, F., and Tompkins, A. M.: A rainfall calibration methodology for impacts modelling based on spatial mapping, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 1389-1401, doi:10.1002/qj.2019, 2013a.
5. Di Giuseppe, F., Molteni, F., and Dutra, E.: Real-time correction of ERA-Interim monthly rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3750-3755, doi:10.1002/grl.50670, 2013b.
6. Dinku, T., Ceccato, P., Grover-Kopec, E., Lemma, M., Connor, S. J., and Ropelewski, C. F.: Validation of satellite rainfall products over East Africa's complex topography, Int. J. Remote Sens., 28, 1503-1526, doi:10.1080/ 01431160600954688, 2007.
7. Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Wetterhall, F., and Pappenberger, F.: Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2359-2373, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2359-2013, 2013a.
8. Dutra, E., Magnusson, L.,Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., and Pappenberger, F.: The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1720-1729, doi:10.1002/joc.3545, 2013b.
9. EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, available at: www.emdat.be, last access: December 2013.
10. Gebremichael, M., Krajewski, W. F., Morrissey, M., Langerud, D., Huffman, G. J., and Adler, R.: Error Uncertainty Analysis of GPCP Monthly Rainfall Products: A Data-Based Simulation Study, J. Appl. Meteor., 42, 1837-1848, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)0422.0.co;2, 2003.
11. Giorgi, F. and Francisco, R.: Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM, Clim. Dynam., 16, 169-182, doi:10.1007/pl00013733, 2000.
12. Gobron, N., Pinty, B., Mélin, F., Taberner, M., Verstraete, M. M., Robustelli, M., and Widlowski, J.-L.: Evaluation of the MERIS/ENVISAT FAPAR product, Adv. Space Res., 39, 105-115, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2006.02.048, 2007.
13. GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 at 1.0-: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historic Data, [Data set] doi:10.5676/DWD-GPCC/FD-M-V6-100, 2011b.
14. Hao, Z. and AghaKouchak, A.: Multivariate Standardized Drought Index: A parametric multi-index model, Adv. Water Resour., 57, 12-18, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.03.009, 2013.
15. Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., Wolff, D. B., Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Hong, Y., Bowman, K. P., and Stocker, E. F.: The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales, J. Hydrometeor., 8, 38-55, 2007.
16. Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Nelkin, E. J.: The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), in: Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology, edited by: Hossain, F. and Gebremichael, M., Springer Verlag, 3-22, 2010.
17. Kumar, A., Chen, M., Hoerling, M., and Eischeid, J.: Do extreme climate events require extreme forcings?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3440-3445, doi:10.1002/grl.50657, 2013.
18. Liebmann, B., Bladé, I., Kiladis, G. N., Carvalho, L. M. V., Senay, G. B., Allured, D., Leroux, S., and Funk, C.: Seasonality of African Precipitation from 1996 to 2009, J. Climate, 25, 4304-4322, doi:10.1175/jcli-d- 11-00157.1, 2012
19. Mckee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, in: Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anahaim, California, 179-184, 1993.
20. Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., Carrao, H., Singleton, A., and Vogt, J.: Monitoring Drought Conditions and Their Uncertainties in Africa Using TRMM Data, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 51, 1867-1874, doi:10.1175/jamc-d-12-0113.1, 2012.
21. Naumann, G., Dutra, E., Barbosa, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., and Vogt, J. V.: Comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple data sets over Africa, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1625-1640, doi:10.5194/hess-18- 1625-2014, 2014.
22. Palmer, T., Buizza, R., Hagedorn, R., Lawrence, A., Leutbecher, M., and Smith, L.: Ensemble prediction: A pedagogical prespective, ECMWF Newsletter, 106, 10-17, 2006.
23. Pozzi, W., Sheffield, J., Stefanski, R., Cripe, D., Pulwarty, R., Vogt, J. V., Heim, R. R., Brewer, M. J., Svoboda, M., Westerhoff, R., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Pappenberger, F., Werner, M., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F., Wagner, W., Schubert, S., Mo, K., Nicholson, M., Bettio, L., Nunez, L., van Beek, R., Bierkens, M., de Goncalves, L. G. G., de Mattos, J. G. Z., and Lawford, R.: Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 776-785, doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00176.1, 2013.
24. Schneider, U., Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., and Ziese, M.: GPCC Monitoring Product: Near Real-Time Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges based on SYNOP and CLIMAT data, [Data set], doi:10.5676/DWD-GPCC/MP-M-V4-100, 2011a.
25. Sepulcre-Canto, G., Horion, S., Singleton, A., Carrao, H., and Vogt, J.: Development of a Combined Drought Indicator to detect agricultural drought in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3519-3531, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3519- 2012, 2012.
26. Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Roderick, M. L.: Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, Nature, 491, 435-438, doi:10.1038/nature11575, 2012.
27. Shukla, S., Steinemann, A. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Drought Monitoring forWashington State: Indicators and Applications, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 66-83, doi:10.1175/2010JHM1307.1, 2011.
28. Svoboda, M., LeComte, D., Hayes, M., Heim, R., Gleason, K., Angel, J., Rippey, B., Tinker, R., Palecki, M., Stooksbury, D., Miskus, D., and Stephens, S.: The Drought Monitor, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1181-1190, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)0832.3.co;2, 2002.
29. Tadesse, T., Wilhite, D. A., Harms, S. K., Hayes, M. J., and Goddard, S.: Drought monitoring using data mining techniques: A case study for Nebraska, USA, Nat. Hazards, 33, 137-159, doi:10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000035020.76733.0b, 2004.
30. Teuling, A. J., Van Loon, A. F., Seneviratne, S. I., Lehner, I., Aubinet, M., Heinesch, B., Bernhofer, C., Grünwald, T., Prasse, H., and Spank, U.: Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2071-2075, doi:10.1002/grl.50495, 2013.
31. Van Loon, A. F. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Making the distinction between water scarcity and drought using an observationmodeling framework, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1483-1502, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20147, 2013.
32. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Begueria, S., and Lopez-Moreno, J. I.: A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, J. Climate, 23, 1696-1718, doi:10.1175/2009jcli2909.1, 2010.
33. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Camarero, J. J., López-Moreno, J. I., Azorin-Molina, C., Revuelto, J., Morán-Tejeda, E., and Sánchez-Lorenzo, A.: Performance of drought indices for ecological, agricultural and hydrological applications, Earth Interact., 16, 1-27, doi:10.1175/2012ei000434.1, 2012.
34. Webster, P. J.: Meteorology: Improve weather forecasts for the developing world, Nature, 493, 17-19, 2013.
35. Ziese, M., Becker, A., Peter, F., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., and Schneider, U.: GPCC Drought Index Product (GPCC-DI) at 1.0-, [Data set], doi:10.5676/DWD-GPCC/DI-M-100, 2011a.
36. Ziese, M., Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Rudolf, B., and Schneider, U.: GPCC First Guess Product at 1.0-: Near Real-Time First Guess monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges based on SYNOP Data, [Data set], doi:10.5676/DWD-GPCC/FG-M-100, 2011b.