The role of older children and adults in wild poliovirus transmission

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 111, Issue 29, 2014, Pages 10604-10609

  Blake, Isobel M ^a   Martin, Rebecca ^b,c   Goel, Ajay ^b   Khetsuriani, Nino ^c   Everts, Johannes ^b   Wolff, Christopher ^b   Wassilak, Steven ^c   Aylward, R Bruce ^b   Grassly, Nicholas C ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

^c CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (United States)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Infectious diseases; Mathematical modeling

Indexed keywords

POLIOMYELITIS VACCINE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT DISEASE; ARTICLE; CHILD; CHILDHOOD DISEASE; CLINICAL EFFECTIVENESS; CONGO; EPIDEMIC; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HUMAN; IMMUNE RESPONSE; INFANT; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD; NEWBORN; POLIOMYELITIS; POLIOMYELITIS VIRUS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REPRODUCTION; SEROPREVALENCE; TAJIKISTAN; VACCINATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EPIDEMIOLOGY; INFECTIOUS DISEASES; MATHEMATICAL MODELING;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CONGO; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POLIOMYELITIS; POLIOVIRUS; TAJIKISTAN;

EID: 84904709286     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1323688111     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Global Polio Eradication Initiative (2013) Data and Monitoring. Available at www. polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring.aspx. Accessed November 8, 2013.
2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2010) Outbreaks following wild poliovirus importations - Europe, Africa, and Asia, January 2009-September 2010. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 59(43):1393-1399.
3. Patel MK, et al. (2012) An outbreak of wild poliovirus in the Republic of Congo, 2010-2011. Clin Infect Dis 55(10):1291-1298.
4. Anonymous (2006) Outbreak of type-1 wild poliovirus in adults, Namibia, 2006. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 81(45):425-430.
5. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2012) Progress toward interruption of wild poliovirus transmission-worldwide, January 2011-March 2012. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 61(19):353-357.
6. Anonymous (2013) Outbreak news. Poliomyelitis, Somalia and Kenya. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 88(24):241-242.
7. Grassly NC, et al. (2012) Waning intestinal immunity after vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccines in India. J Infect Dis 205(10):1554-1561.
8. World Health Organization (2012) Polio Global Emergency Action Plan 2012-2013. Available at www.polioeradication.org/Portals/0/Document/Resources/ StrategyWork/EAP-201205.pdf. Accessed November 8, 2013.
9. Global Polio Eradication Initiative (2013) Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018. Available at www.polioeradication.org/resourcelibrary/ strategyandwork. aspx. Accessed November 8, 2013.
10. Anonymous (2013) Meeting of the strategic advisory group of experts on immunization, November 2012-conclusions and recommendations. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 88(1):1-16.
11. Gelfand HM, Potash L, Leblanc DR, Fox JP (1959) Intrafamilial and interfamilial spread of living vaccine strains of polioviruses. J Am Med Assoc 170(17):2039-2048.
12. Melnick JL, Ledinko N (1953) Development of neutralizing antibodies against the three types of poliomyelitis virus during an epidemic period; the ratio of inapparent infection to clinical poliomyelitis. Am J Hyg 58(2):207-222.
13. Ionides EL, Bretó C, King AA (2006) Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(49):18438- 18443.
14. King AA, Ionides EL, Pascual M, Bouma MJ (2008) Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454(7206):877-880.
15. Grard G, et al. (2010) Type 1 wild poliovirus and putative enterovirus 109 in an outbreak of acute flaccid paralysis in Congo, October-November 2010. Euro Surveill 15(47):pii:19723.
16. Khetsuriani N, et al. (2013) Population immunity to polioviruses in the context of a largescale wild poliovirus type 1 outbreak in Tajikistan, 2010. Vaccine 31(42):4911-4916.
17. World Bank (2012) World Development Indicators 2012. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/wdi-2012-ebook.pdf. Accessed November 8, 2013.
18. O' Reilly KM, et al. (2011) A statistical model of the international spread of wild poliovirus in Africa used to predict and prevent outbreaks. PLoS Med 8(10):e1001109.
19. Le Menach A, et al. (2011) Poliomyelitis outbreak, Pointe-Noire, Republic of the Congo, September 2010-February 2011. Emerg Infect Dis 17(8):1506-1509.
20. Gregory CJ, et al. (2012) Investigation of elevated case-fatality rate in poliomyelitis outbreak in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo, 2010. Clin Infect Dis 55(10):1299-1306.
21. Cáceres VM, Sutter RW (2001) Sabin monovalent oral polio vaccines: Review of past experiences and their potential use after polio eradication. Clin Infect Dis 33(4):531-541. (Pubitemid 32709587)
22. Patriarca PA, Wright PF, John TJ (1991) Factors affecting the immunogenicity of oral poliovirus vaccine in developing countries: Review. Rev Infect Dis 13(5):926-939.
23. World Health Organization (2003) WHO-Recommended Surveillance Standard of Poliomyelitis. Available at www.who.int/immunization-monitoring/diseases/ poliomyelitis-surveillance/en/index.html. Accessed November 8, 2013.
24. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP (2000) Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation (Wiley, Chichester, UK).
25. Casey AE (1942) The incubation period in epidemic poliomyelitis. J Am Med Assoc 120(11):805-807.
26. King AA, et al. (2012) pomp: Statistical inference for partially observed Markov process (R package). Available at http://pomp.r-forge.r-project.org. Accessed March 6, 2013.
27. R Development Core Team (2012) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Available at www.R-project.org. Accessed March 6, 2013.
28. Burnham K, Anderson D (2004) Model Selection and Multi-model Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach (Springer, New York), 3rd Ed.
29. Paul JR (1955) Poliomyelitis. Monograph Series (World Health Organization, Geneva), No. 26.
30. Penttinen K, Patiala R (1961) The paralytic/infected ratio in a susceptible population during a polio type I epidemic. Ann Med Exp Biol Fenn 39:195-202.