When all models are wrong

Issues in Science and Technology

Volumn 30, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 79-85

  Saltelli, Andrea ^a   Funtowicz, Silvio ^b  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; MODELING PROCESS; ONE-RULE; SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE; SIMPLE MODELING; UNCERTAINTY;

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84904691953     PISSN: 07485492     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (10)

1. S. O. Funtowicz and J. R. Ravetz, Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy (Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer, 1990).
2. S. N. Lane, N. Odoni, C. Landström, S. J. Whatmore, N. Ward, and S. Bradley, Doing Flood Risk Science Differently: An Experiment in Radical Scientific Method. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 36, 15-36(2011).
3. M. Maslin and R Austin, Climate Models at Their Limit? Nature 486,183(2012).
4. Office of Management and Budget, Guidelines for Ensuring and Maximizing the Quality, Objectivity, Utility, and Integrity of Information Disseminated by Federal Agencies, Friday, February 22, 2002. Notice; republication http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg-final-infor-mation-quality-guidelines/, last accessed December 2012.
5. N. Oreskes and E. M. Conway, Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (London: Blooms-bury Press, 2010).
6. O. H. Pilkey and L Pilkey-Jarvis, Useless Arithmetic. Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007).
7. A. Saltelli, A. Guimarães Pereira, J. P. van der Sluijs, and S. Funtowicz, What Do I Make of Your Latinorum? Sensitivity Auditing of Mathematical Modeling (http://arxiv.org/abs/1211.2668).
8. To appear in Foresight and Innovation Policy, Special Issue on Plausibility.
9. A. Saltelli, B. D'Hombres, Sensitivity Analysis Didn't Help. A Practitioner's Critique of the Stern Review. Global Environmental Change 20, 298-302 (2010).
10. Trouble at the Lab, Scientists Like to Think of Science as Self-Correcting. To an Alarming Degree, It Is Not. The Economist, October 19, 2013, 21-24.