Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 111, Issue 28, 2014, Pages 10077-10082

  Gennaretti, Fabio ^a   Arseneault, Dominique ^a   Nicault, Antoine ^b   Perreault, Luc ^c   Beǵin, Yves ^d  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À RIMOUSKI   (Canada)

^b FR 3098 Aix Marseille University CNRS   (France)

^c HYDRO QUÉBEC   (Canada)

^d CENTRE EAU TERRE ENVIRONNEMENT   (Canada)

Author keywords

Black spruce; Dendroclimatology; Lake subfossil trees; Picea mariana; Temperature regime shifts

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; BLACK SPRUCE; CANADA; CLIMATE; COOLING; DENDROCHRONOLOGY; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; ICE CAP; LITTLE ICE AGE; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; MILLENNIAL TREE RING CHRONOLOGY; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REGIME SHIFT; SUMMER; TEMPERATURE RELATED PHENOMENA; TREE GROWTH; VOLCANO; WARMING;

BLACK SPRUCE; DENDROCLIMATOLOGY; LAKE SUBFOSSIL TREES; PICEA MARIANA; TEMPERATURE REGIME SHIFTS;

CANADA; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; TREES; VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS;

EID: 84904332003     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1324220111     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Jansen E, et al. (2007) Palaeoclimate. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Solomon S, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 433-497.
2. Jones PD, et al. (2009) High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: A review of current status and future prospects. Holocene 19(1):3-49.
3. Stahle DW, et al. (2012) Tree-ring analysis of ancient baldcypress trees and subfossil wood. Quat Sci Rev 34:1-15.
4. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013) Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat Geosci 6:339-346.
5. Viau AE, Ladd M, Gajewski K (2012) The climate of North America during the past 2000 years reconstructed from pollen data. Global Planet Change 84-85:75-83.
6. D' Arrigo R, Wilson R, Jacoby G (2006) On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. J Geophys Res 111(D3):D03103, 10.1029/2005JD006352.
7. Jacoby GC, Ivanciu IS, Ulan LD (1988) A 263-year record of summer temperature for northern Quebec reconstructed from tree-ring data and evidence of a major climatic shift in the early 1800's. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 64(1-2):69-78.
8. Lavigne F, et al. (2013) Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(42):16742-16747.
9. Gao C, Robock A, Ammann C (2008) Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models. J Geophys Res 113(23):D23111, 10.1029/2008JD010239.
10. Crowley TJ (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289(5477):270-277.
11. Cole-Dai J, et al. (2009) Cold decade (AD 1810- 1819) caused by Tambora (1815) and another (1809) stratospheric volcanic eruption. Geophys Res Lett 36(22):L22703, 10.1029/2009GL040882.
12. Schleussner CF, Feulner G (2013) A volcanically triggered regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as a possible origin of the Little Ice Age. Clim Past 9(3):1321-1330.
13. Zhong Y, et al. (2011) Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: A coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism. Clim Dyn 37(11-12):2373-2387.
14. Zanchettin D, et al. (2012) Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Clim Dyn 39(1-2):419-444.
15. Stenchikov G, et al. (2009) Volcanic signals in oceans. J Geophys Res 114(D16):D16104, 10.1029/2008JD011673.
16. Otterå OH, Bentsen M, Drange H, Suo L (2010) External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nat Geosci 3(10):688-694.
17. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Anchukaitis KJ (2013) Volcanic cooling signal in tree ring temperature records for the past millennium. J Geophys Res 118(16):9000-9010.
18. Esper J, et al. (2013) European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bull Volcanol 75(7):1-14.
19. Breitenmoser P, et al. (2012) Solar and volcanic fingerprints in tree-ring chronologies over the past 2000 years. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 313-314:127-139.
20. Mann ME, Fuentes JD, Rutherford S (2012) Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures. Nat Geosci 5(3):202-205.
21. Briffa KR, Jones PD, Schweingruber FH, Osborn TJ (1998) Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature 393(6684):450-455.
22. Miller GH, et al. (2012) Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks. Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168.
23. Gennaretti F, Arseneault D, Bégin Y (2014) Millennial stocks and fluxes of large woody debris in lakes of the North American taiga. J Ecol 102(2):367-380.
24. Évin G, Merleau J, Perreault L (2011) Two-component mixtures of normal, gamma, and Gumbel distributions for hydrological applications. Water Resour Res 47(8):W08525, 10.1029/2010WR010266.
25. Perreault L, Garçon R, Gaudet J (2007) Analyse de séquences de variables aléatoires hydrologiques à l'aide de modèles de changement de régime exploitant des variables atmosphériques [Modelling hydrologic time series using regime switching models and measures of atmospheric circulation]. Houille Blanche 6:111-123. French. (Pubitemid 351175194)
26. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25(6):693-712. (Pubitemid 40815726)
27. Boulanger Y, et al. (2012) Dendrochronological reconstruction of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks in southern Quebec for the last 400 years. Can J Res 42(7):1264-1276.
28. Schwarz G (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6(2):461-464.
29. Naurzbaev MM, Vaganov EA (2000) Variation of early summer and annual temperature in east Taymir and Putoran (Siberia) over the last two millennia inferred from tree rings. J Geophys Res 105(D6):7317-7326.
30. Salzer MW, Bunn AG, Graham NE, Hughes MK (2014) Five millennia of paleotemperature from tree-rings in the Great Basin, USA. Clim Dyn 42(5-6):1517-1526.
31. Kaufman DS, et al.; Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members (2009) Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling. Science 325(5945):1236-1239.
32. Esper J, et al. (2012) Orbital forcing of tree-ring data. Nat Clim Change 2(12):862-866.
33. Miller GH, Lehman SJ, Refsnider KA, Southon JR, Zhong Y (2013) Unprecedented recent summer warmth in Arctic Canada. Geophys Res Lett 40(21):5745-5751.
34. 2 forcing on the temperatures in the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830): A model study. Clim Dyn 25(2-3):205-218.
35. Kasper JN, Allard M (2001) Late-Holocene climatic changes as detected by the growth and decay of ice wedges on the southern shore of Hudson Strait, northern Québec, Canada. Holocene 11(5):563-577. (Pubitemid 32770152)
36. Payette S, Morneau C (1993) Holocene relict woodlands at the Eastern Canadian treeline. Quat Res 39(1):84-89. (Pubitemid 24409186)
37. Payette S, Filion L, Delwaide A (2008) Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 363(1501):2301-2316. (Pubitemid 351770600)
38. Robock A (2005) Cooling following large volcanic eruptions corrected for the effect of diffuse radiation on tree rings. Geophys Res Lett 32(6):L06702, 10.1029/2004GL022116.
39. Filion L, Payette S, Gauthier L, Boutin Y (1986) Light rings in subarctic conifers as a dendrochronological tool. Quat Res 26(2):272-279.
40. Esper J, Cook ER, Krusic PJ, Peters K, Schweingruber FH (2003) Tests of the RCS method for preserving low-frequency variability in long tree-ring chronologies. Tree-Ring Res 59(2):81-98.
41. Arseneault D, Dy B, Gennaretti F, Autin J, Bégin Y (2013) Developing millennial tree ring chronologies in the fire-prone North American boreal forest. J Quat Sci 28(3):283-292.
42. Melvin TM, Brifffa KR, Nicolussi K, Grabner M (2007) Time-varying- response smoothing. Dendrochronologia 25(1):65-69. (Pubitemid 46602018)
43. Clyde MA, Titus SJ (1987) Radial and longitudinal variation in stem diameter increment of lodgepole pine, white spruce, and black spruce: Species and crown class differences. Can J Res 17(10):1223-1227.
44. Guiot J, et al. (2005) Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data. Holocene 15(4):489-500. (Pubitemid 40764406)