Divergence of climate impacts on maize yield in Northeast China

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Volumn 196, Issue , 2014, Pages 51-58

  Wang, Xuhui ^a   Peng, Liqing ^a   Zhang, Xinping ^a   Yin, Guodong ^a   Zhao, Chuang ^a   Piao, Shilong ^a  

^a PEKING UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Asymmetric climate impacts; Day time temperature; Maize yield; Night time temperature; Northeast China

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; GROWING SEASON; MAIZE; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; YIELD RESPONSE; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; DIVERGENCE;

CHINA;

ZEA MAYS;

EID: 84903752131     PISSN: 01678809     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.009     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Asseng S., Foster I., Turner N.C. The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2011, 17:997-1012.
2. Asseng S., Ewert F., Rosenzweig C., Jones J.W., Hatfield J.L., Ruane A.C., Boote K.J., Thorburn P.J., Rotter R.P., Cammarano D., Brisson N., Basso B., Martre P., Aggarwal P.K., Angulo C., Bertuzzi P., Biernath C., Challinor A.J., Doltra J., Gayler S., Goldberg R., Grant R., Heng L., Hooker J., Hunt L.A. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 2013, 10.1038/nclimate1916.
3. Breshears D.D., Cobb N.S., Rich P.M., Price K.P., Allen C.D., Balice R.G., Romme W.H., Kastens J.H., Floyd M.L., Belnap J., Anderson J.J., Myers O.B., Meyer C.W. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2005, 102:15144-15148.
4. Chen C., Lei C., Deng A., Qian C., Hoogmoed W., Zhang W. Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965-2008. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2011, 151:1580-1588.
5. Dai A. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 2011, 2:45-65.
6. Editorial Board of National Climate Change Assessment Report (EBNCCAR) The 2nd National Climate Change Assessment Reports 2011, Science Press, Beijing.
7. Evans L.T., De Datta S.K. The relation between irradiance and grain yield of irrigated rice in the tropics, as influenced by cultivar, nitrogen fertilizer application and month of planting. Field Crops Res. 1979, 2:1-17.
8. Frolking S., Qiu J., Boles S., Xiao X., Liu J., Zhuang Y., Li C., Qin X. Combining remote sensing and ground census data to develop new maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in China. Global Biogeochem Cy 2002, 16:1091.
9. Godfray H.C., Crute I.R., Haddad L., Lawrence D., Muir J.F., Nisbett N., Pretty J., Robinson S., Toulmin C., Whiteley R. The future of the global food system. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 2010, 365:2769-2777.
10. Godfray H.C. Food for thought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011, 108:19845-19846.
11. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
12. Kristensen K., Schelde K., Olesen J.E. Winter wheat yield response to climate variability in Denmark. J. Agric. Sci. 2011, 149:33-47.
13. Lin E., Xiong W., Ju H., Xu Y., Li Y., Bai L., Xie L. Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 2005, 360:2149-2154.
14. Liu Y., Lin E. Effects of climate change on agriculture in different regions of China. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 2007, 3:229-233. (in Chinese with English abstract).
15. Liu Z., Yang X., Hubbard K.G., Lin X. Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2012, 18:3441-3454.
16. Lobell D.B., Burke M.B. On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2010, 150:1443-1452.
17. Lobell D.B., Field C.B. Global scale climate - crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 2007, 2:014002. 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002.
18. Lobell D.B., Burke M.B., Tebaldi C., Mastrandrea M.D., Falcon W.P., Naylor R.L. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 2008, 319:607-610.
19. Lobell D.B., Schlenker W., Costa-Roberts J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 2011, 333:616-620.
20. Lobell D.B., Hammer G.L., Mclean G., Messina C., Roberts M.J., Schlenker W. The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nat. Clim. Change 2013, 3:497-501.
21. Ma S. The estimation and application of agroclimate resources in Chang Bai Mountain region. Syst. Sci. Compr. Stud. Agric. 1996, 12:188-193.
22. Maltais-Landry G., Lobell D.B. Evaluating the contribution of weather to maize and wheat yield trends in 12 US counties. Agron. J. 2012, 104:301-311.
23. Mccormick A.J., Cramer M.D., Watt D.A. Sink strength regulates photosynthesis in sugarcane. New Phytol. 2006, 171:759-770.
24. Meng E., Hu R., Shi X., Zhang S. Maize in China: Production Systems, Constraints, and Research Priorities 2006, CIMMYT, Mexico.
25. Mitchell T.D., Jones P.D. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol. 2005, 25:693-712.
26. Mohammed A.R., Tarpley L. Impact of high nighttime temperature on respiration, membrane stability, antioxidant capacity, and yield of rice plants. Crop Sci. 2009, 49:313-322.
27. Morita S., Yonemaru J., Takanashi Grain growth and endosperm cell size under high night temperatures in rice (Oryza sativa L.). Ann. Bot. 2005, 95:695-701.
28. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) China Statistics Yearbook 2010 2010, China Statistics Press, Beijing
29. Nicholls N. Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends. Nature 1997, 387:484-485.
30. Parent B., Tardieu F. Temperature responses of developmental processes have not been affected by breeding in different ecological areas for 17 crop species. New Phytol. 2012, 194:760-774.
31. Paul M.J., Foyer C.H. Sink regulation of photosynthesis. J. Exp. Bot. 2001, 52:1383-1400.
32. Peng S.B., Huang J.L., Sheehy J.E., Laza R.C., Visperas R.M., Zhong X.H., Centeno G.S., Khush G.S., Cassman K.G. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2004, 101:9971-9975.
33. Peng S., Piao S., Ciais P., Myneni R.B., Chen A.P., Chevallier F., Dolman A.J., Janssens I.A., Penuelas J., Zhang G.X., Vicca S., Wan S.Q., Wang S.P., Zeng H. Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation. Nature 2013, 501:88-92.
34. Piao S., Ciais P., Huang Y., Shen Z., Peng S., Li J., Zhou L., Liu H., Ma Y., Ding Y., Friedlingstein P., Liu C., Tan K., Yu Y., Fang Zhang.T., J The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 2010, 467:43-51.
35. Prasad P.V.V., Pisipati S.R., Ristic Z., Bukovnik U., Fritz A.K. Impact of nighttime temperature on physiology and growth of spring wheat. Crop Sci. 2008, 48:2372-2380.
36. Schlenker W., Roberts M.J. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2009, 106:15594-15598.
37. Schmidhuber J., Tubiello F.N. Global food security under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2007, 104:19703-19708.
38. Sheehy J.E., Mitchell P.L., Ferrer A.B. Decline in rice grain yields with temperature: models and correlations can give different estimates. Field Crops Res. 2006, 98:151-156.
39. Tao F., Yokozawa M., Liu J., Zhang Z. Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Res. 2008, 38:83-94.
40. Wan S., Xia J., Liu W., Niu S. Photosynthetic overcompensation under nocturnal warming enhances grassland carbon sequestration. Ecology 2009, 90:2700-2710.
41. Wang Z., Song K., Li X., Zhang B., Liu D. Effects of climate change on yield of maize in maize zone of Songnen Plain in the past 40 years. J. Arid Land Resour. Environ. 2007, 21:112-117.
42. Wang X., Piao S., Ciais P., Li J., Friedlingstein P., Koven C., Chen A. Spring temperature change and its implication in the change of vegetation growth in North America from 1982 to 2006. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011, 108:1240-1245.
43. Welch J.R., Vincent J.R., Auffhammer M., Moya P.F., Dobermann A., Dawe D. Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2010, 107:14562-14567.
44. Wolf J., Van Diepen C.A. Effects of climate change on silage maize production potential in the European community. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 1994, 71:33-60.
45. Xiong W., Matthews R., Holman I., Lin E., Xu Y. Modelling China's potential maize production at regional scale under climate change. Clim. Change 2007, 85:433-451.
46. Xiong W., Holman I., Conway D., Lin E., Li Y. A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies. Ecol. Modell. 2008, 213:365-380.
47. Yun Y., Fang X., Wang Y., Tao J., Qiao D. Main grain crops structural change and its climate background in Heilongjiang Province during the past two decades. J. Nat. Resour. 2005, 20:697-705.
48. Zhang T., Huang Y. Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008. J. Sci. Food Agric. 2012, 92:1643-1652.
49. Zhang T., Zhu J., Wassmann R. Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: an empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981-2005). Agric. Forest Meteorol. 2010, 150:1128-1137.
50. Zhang J. Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2004, 102:133-153.