Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development

Global Change Biology

Volumn 20, Issue 8, 2014, Pages 2505-2517

  Müller, Christoph ^a   Waha, Katharina ^a   Bondeau, Alberte ^b   Heinke, Jens ^a,c  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITY   (France)

^c INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Kenya)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Development; Impacts; Modeling; Sub Saharan Africa

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; FOOD SECURITY; FUTURE PROSPECT; POVERTY ALLEVIATION; STRATEGIC APPROACH;

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP; ENVIRONMENT; HYDROLOGY; THEORETICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY;

AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROPS, AGRICULTURAL; ENVIRONMENT; HYDROLOGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84903704043     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12586     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change - Human and Policy Dimensions, 14, 31-52.
2. Biemans H, Hutjes RWA, Kabat P, Strengers BJ, Gerten D, Rost S (2009) Effects of precipitation uncertainty on discharge calculations for main river basins. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10, 1011-1025.
3. Biemans H, Haddeland I, Kabat P et al. (2011) Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century. Water Resources Research, 47, W03509.
4. Bondeau A, Smith PC, Zaehle S et al. (2007) Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology, 13, 679-706.
5. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A. et al (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt Kb, Tignor M, Miller Hl), pp. 847-940. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.
6. CIESIN, IFPRI, WRI (2000) Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 2. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and World Resources Institute (WRI), Palisades, NY.
7. Conway D (2011) Adapting climate research for development in Africa. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2, 428-450.
8. Costanza R, D'arge R, De Groot R et al. (1998) The value of ecosystem services: putting the issues in perspective. Ecological Economics, 25, 67-72.
9. Costanza R, Fisher B, Mulder K, Liu S, Christopher T (2007) Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multi-scale empirical study of the relationship between species richness and net primary production. Ecological Economics, 61, 478-491.
10. Cotula L, Vermeulen S, Mathieu P, Toulmin C (2011) Agricultural investment and international land deals: evidence from a multi-country study in Africa. Food Security, 3, 99-113.
11. Duncan A (1998) The food security challenge for southern Africa. Food Policy, 23, 459-475.
12. Ebi K, Padgham J, Doumbia M, Kergna A, Smith J, Butt T, Mccarl B (2011) Smallholders adaptation to climate change in Mali. Climatic Change, 108, 423-436.
13. Elliott J, Deryng D, Müller C et al. (2014) Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United states of America, 111, 3239-3244.
14. Fader M, Rost S, Müller C, Bondeau A, Gerten D (2010) Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: present and potential future patterns. Journal of Hydrology, 384, 218-231.
15. Falkenmark M, Lundqvist J, Widstrand C (1989) Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches. Natural Resources Forum, 13, 258-267.
16. Fao (2001) Food Balance Sheets: A Handbook. FAO, Rome.
17. Fao (2010) The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations, Rome, Italy.
18. Faostat Data (2009) FAOSTAT data, Available at: http://faostat.fao.org/ (accessed 01 March 2009).
19. Fraser EDG, Simelton E, Termansen M, Gosling SN, South A (2013) 'Vulnerability hotspots': integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 195-205.
20. Friend AD, Lucht W, Rademacher TT et al. (2014) Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 3280-3285.
21. Fukuda-Parr S, Gregorio C.D, Fu H et al. (2004) Human Development Report 2004, pp 299, United Nations Development Programme, New York, USA.
22. Gerten D, Schaphoff S, Haberlandt U, Lucht W, Sitch S (2004) Terrestrial vegetation and water balance - hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology, 286, 249-270.
23. Gerten D, Rost S, Von Bloh W, Lucht W (2008) Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L20405.
24. Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change, 19, 240-247.
25. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1095-1107.
26. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37, 407-418.
27. Heyder U, Schaphoff S, Gerten D, Lucht W (2011) Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 034036.
28. Hope KR (2009) Climate change and poverty in Africa. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 16, 451-461.
29. Huntjens P, Lebel L, Pahl-Wostl C, Camkin J, Schulze R, Kranz N (2012) Institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 22, 67-81.
30. Kates RW, Dasgupta P (2007) African poverty: a grand challenge for sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104, 16747-16750.
31. Kijazi AL, Reason CJC (2009) Analysis of the 2006 floods over northern Tanzania. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 955-970.
32. Lapola DM, Priess JA, Bondeau A (2009) Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model. Biomass and Bioenergy, 33, 1087-1095.
33. Leakey ADB, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ, Rogers A, Long SP, Ort DR (2009) Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. Journal of Experimental Botany, 60, 2859-2876.
34. Lemos MC, Kirchhoff CJ, Ramprasad V (2012) Narrowing the climate information usability gap. Nature Climate Change, 2, 789-794.
35. Liu JG, Fritz S, Van Wesenbeeck CFA, Fuchs M, You LZ, Obersteiner M, Yang H (2008) A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Global and Planetary Change, 64, 222-235.
36. Lucht W, Prentice IC, Myneni RB et al. (2002) Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and pinatubo effect. Science, 296, 1687-1689.
37. Lutz W, Samir KC (2010) Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 365, 2779-2791.
38. Mortimore M (2010) Adapting to drought in the Sahel: lessons for climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 134-143.
39. Müller C (2013) African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture. Annual Review of Nutrition, 33, 395-411.
40. Müller C, Robertson R (2014) Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agricultural Economics, 45, 37-50.
41. Müller C, Cramer W, Hare WL, Lotze-Campen H (2011) Climate change risks for African agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 4313-4315.
42. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambrige UK.
43. Neumann K, Stehfest E, Verburg PH, Siebert S, Müller C, Veldkamp T (2011) Exploring global irrigation patterns: a multilevel modelling approach. Agricultural Systems, 104, 703-713.
44. Notenbaert A, Davies J, De Leeuw J et al. (2012) Policies in support of pastoralism and biodiversity in the heterogeneous drylands of East Africa. Pastoralism, C7-14, 1-17.
45. Piontek F, Müller C, Pugh TAM et al. (2014) Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United states of America, 111, 3233-3238.
46. Portmann FT, Siebert S, Döll P (2010) Mirca2000-global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: a new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, Gb1011.
47. Preston BL, Yuen EJ, Westaway RM (2012) Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks. Sustainability Science, 6, 177-202.
48. Quinn CH, Ziervogel G, Taylor A, Takama T, Thomalla F (2011) Coping with multiple stresses in rural South Africa. Ecology and Society, 16, 20.
49. Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D et al. (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 3268-3273.
50. Rost S, Gerten D, Bondeau A, Lucht W, Rohwer J, Schaphoff S (2008a) Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resources Research, 44, W09405.
51. Rost S, Gerten D, Heyder U (2008b) Human alterations of the terrestrial water cycle through land management. Advances in Geosciences, 18, 43-50.
52. Roudier P, Sultan B, Quirion P, Berg A (2011) The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: what does the recent literature say? Global Environmental Change, 21, 1073-1083.
53. Schaphoff S, Heyder U, Ostberg S, Gerten D, Heinke J, Lucht W (2013) Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 014026.
54. Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW, Prentice IC (2006) A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United states of America, 103, 13116-13120.
55. Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice I et al. (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 9, 161-185.
56. Smit B, Pilifosova O (2003) From adaptation to adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction. In: Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development (eds Smith Jb, Klein Rjt, Huq S), pp. 9-28. Imperial College Press, London, UK.
57. Thornton PK, Jones PG, Owiyo T et al. (2008) Climate change and poverty in Africa: mapping hotspots of vulnerability. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2, 24-44.
58. Van Huijgevoort MHJ, Hazenberg P, Van Lanen HAJ, Uijlenhoet R (2012) A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2437-2451.
59. Verchot L, Noordwijk M, Kandji S et al. (2007) Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 901-918.
60. Wagner W, Scipal K, Pathe C, Gerten D, Lucht W, Rudolf B (2003) Evaluation of the agreement between the first global remotely sensed soil moisture data with model and precipitation data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108, article id 4611.
61. Waha K, Van Bussel LGJ, Müller C, Bondeau A (2012) Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 247-259.
62. Waha K, Müller C, Bondeau A, Dietrich J, Kurukulasuriya P, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H (2013) Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa. Global Environmental Change, 23, 130-143.
63. Wirsenius S (2000) Human Use of Land and Organic materials. Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Chalmers University of Technology and Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden.
64. World Bank (2011) Africa Development Indicators. World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.