Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 13, 2014, Pages 4911-4922

  Russon, T ^a   Tudhope, A W ^a   Hegerl, G C ^a   Schurer, A ^a   Collins, M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate models; ENSO; Statistics; Tropical variability

Indexed keywords

BANDPASS FILTERS; CLIMATE MODELS; OCEANOGRAPHY;

BAND PASS; CLIMATE SYSTEM; CLIMATIC VARIABLES; ENSO; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC; INTERANNUAL; SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION; TIMES SERIES; TROPICAL VARIABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

TIME SERIES;

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE MODELING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; VARIANCE ANALYSIS;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (CENTRAL);

ANTHOZOA;

EID: 84903398979     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00077.1     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. An, S.-I., Y.-G. Ham, J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, and I.-S. Kang, 2005: El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. J. Climate, 18, 2617-2627, doi:10.1175/JCLI3433.1.
2. Cane, M. A., and S. E. Zebiak, 1985: A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Science, 228, 1085-1087, doi:10.1126/science.228.4703.1085.
3. Cane, M. A., and S. E. Zebiak, and Y. Xue, 1995: Model studies of the long term behaviour of ENSO. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academies Press, 442-456.
4. Choi, J., S.-I. An, and S.-W. Yeh, 2012: Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and its relationship with the mean state. Climate Dyn., 38, 2631-2644, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1186-y.
5. Cobb, K. M., C. D. Charles, H. Cheng, and R. L. Edwards, 2003: El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium. Nature, 424, 271-276, doi:10.1038/nature01779.
6. Cobb, K. M., N. Westphal, H. R. Sayani, J. T. Watson, E. D. Lorenzo, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, and C. D. Charles, 2013: Highly variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene. Science, 339, 67-70, doi:10.1126/science.1228246.
7. Collins, M., S. F. B. Tett, and C. Cooper, 2001: The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn., 17, 61-81, doi:10.1007/s003820000094.
8. Duchon, C. E., 1979: Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions. J. Appl. Meteor., 18, 1016-1022, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1979)018,1016:LFIOAT.2.0.CO;2.
9. Fowler, A. M., G. Boswijk, A. M. Lorrey, J. Gergis, M. Pirie, S. P. J. McCloskey, J. G. Palmer, and J. Wunder, 2012: Multi-centennial tree-ring record of ENSO-related activity in New Zealand. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 172-176, doi:10.1038/nclimate1374.
10. Gordon, C., C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, H. Banks, J. M. Gregory, T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell, and R. A. Wood, 2000: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn., 16, 147-168, doi:10.1007/s003820050010.
11. Guilyardi, E., 2006: El Niño-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 26, 329-348, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0084-6.
12. Hereid, K. A., T. M. Quinn, and Y. M. Okumura, 2013: Assessing spatial variability in El Niño-Southern Oscillation event detection skill using coral geochemistry. Paleoceanography, 28, 14-23, doi:10.1029/2012PA002352.
13. Knight, K., 2000:Mathematical Statistics. Chapman and Hall, 504 pp.
14. Li, J., S.-P. Xie, E. R. Cook, G. Huang, R. D'Arrigo, F. Liu, J. Ma, and X.-T. Zheng, 2011: Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium. Nat. Climate Change, 1, 114-118, doi:10.1038/nclimate1086.
15. Mann, M. E., and J. M. Lees, 1996: Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series. Climatic Change, 33, 409-445, doi:10.1007/BF00142586.
16. McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, and O. Timm, 2010: A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650. Climate Past, 6, 1-17, doi:10.5194/cp-6-1-2010.
17. Politis, D. N., and J. P. Romano, 1994: The stationary bootstrap. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 89, 1303-1313, doi:10.1080/01621459.1994.10476870.
18. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
19. Russon, T., A. W. Tudhope, G. C. Hegerl, M. Collins, and J. Tindall, 2013: Inter-annual tropical Pacific climate variability in an isotope-enabled CGCM: Implications for interpreting coral stable oxygen isotope records of ENSO. Climate Past, 9, 1543-1557, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1543-2013.
20. Schurer, A. P., S. F. B. Tett, and G. C. Hegerl, 2014: Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium. Nat. Geosci., 7, 104-108, doi:10.1038/ngeo2040.
21. Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay, 2011: Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral d18O. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.
22. Timmermann, A., 2003: Decadal ENSO amplitude modulations:A nonlinear paradigm. Global Planet. Change, 37 (1-2), 135-156, doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00194-7.
23. Torrence, C., andG. P. Compo, 1998:Apractical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61-78, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079,0061:APGTWA.2.0.CO;2.
24. Trenberth, K. E., 1984: Some effects of sample size and persistence onmeteorological statistics. Part I:Autocorrelations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2359-2368, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112,2359: SEOFSS.2.0.CO;2.
25. Tudhope, A. W., and Coauthors, 2001: Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle. Science, 291, 1511-1517, doi:10.1126/science.1057969.
26. von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers, 2003: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 484pp.
27. Watanabe, M., and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: A method for disentangling El Niño-mean state interaction. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L14702, doi:10.1029/2012GL052013.
28. Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038710.