Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 517, Issue , 2014, Pages 913-922

  Alfieri, Lorenzo ^a,b   Pappenberger, Florian ^a   Wetterhall, Fredrik ^a   Haiden, Thomas ^a   Richardson, David ^a   Salamon, Peter ^b  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

Author keywords

CRPS; Distributed hydrological modelling; Ensemble streamflow predictions; Flood early warning; Skill scores

Indexed keywords

FLOODS; FORECASTING; LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS; RIVERS; STREAM FLOW;

CRPS; DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING; EARLY WARNING; SKILL SCORE; STREAMFLOW PREDICTION;

QUALITY CONTROL;

FLOOD; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; MOUNTAIN REGION; PREDICTION; RIVER WATER; RUNOFF; SIMULATION; STREAMFLOW;

EUROPE;

EID: 84902682200     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Alfieri L., Salamon P., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Thielen J. Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environ. Sci. Policy 2012, 21:35-49.
2. Alfieri L., Burek P., Dutra E., Krzeminski B., Muraro D., Thielen J., Pappenberger F. GloFAS - global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17:1161-1175. 10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013.
3. Alfieri L., Salamon P., Bianchi A., Neal J., Bates P., Feyen L. Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping. Hydrol. Process. 2013, 12. 10.1002/hyp.9947.
4. Arheimer B., Lindstro¨m G., Olsson J. A systematic review of sensitivities in the Swedish flood-forecasting system. Atmos. Res. 2011, 100:275-284.
5. Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Ramos, M.H., 2006. Quantitative analyses of EFAS forecasts using different verification (skill) scores. In: Thielen, J. (Ed.), The Benefit of Probabilistic Flood Forecasting on European Scale, EUR, 22560, pp. 58-79.
6. Bartholmes J.C., Thielen J., Ramos M.H., Gentilini S. The European flood alert system EFAS - Part 2: statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 13:141-153.
7. Bechtold P., Semane N., Lopez P., Chaboureau J.-P., Beljaars A., Bormann N. Representing equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection in large-scale models. J. Atmos. Sci. 2014, 71:734-753. 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0163.1.
8. Bogner K., Pappenberger F. Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system. Water Resour. Res. 2011, 47:W07524. 10.1029/2010WR009137.
9. Brown J.D., Demargne J., Seo D.-J., Liu Y. The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): a software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations. Environ. Modell. Softw. 2010, 25:854-872. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.01.009.
10. Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F. Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 2009, 375:613-626.
11. Demargne J., Brown J., Liu Y., Seo D.-J., Wu L., Toth Z., Zhu Y. Diagnostic verification of hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensembles. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2010, 11:114-122.
12. Feyen L., Vrugt J.A., Nualla´in B., van der Knijff J., De Roo A. Parameter optimisation and uncertainty assessment for large-scale streamflow simulation with the LISFLOOD model. J. Hydrol. 2007, 332:276-289. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.07.004.
13. Gourley J.J., Erlingis J.M., Hong Y., Wells E.B. Evaluation of tools used for monitoring and forecasting flash floods in the United States. Weather Forecast. 2012, 27:158-173. 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05043.1.
14. Hersbach H. Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Weather Forecast. 2000, 15:559-570.
15. Kann A., Haiden T. The August 2002 flood in Austria: sensitivity of precipitation forecast skill to areal and temporal averaging. Meteorol. Z 2005, 14:369-377. 10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0042.
16. Legates D.R., McCabe G.J. Evaluating the use of "goodness-of-fit" measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resour. Res. 1999, 35:233-241. 10.1029/1998WR900018.
17. Majewski D., Liermann D., Prohl P., Ritter B., Buchhold M., Hanisch T., Paul G., Wergen W., Baumgardner J. The operational global icosahedral-hexagonal gridpoint model GME: description and high-resolution tests. Mon. Weather Rev. 2002, 130:319-338.
18. Marsigli C., Boccanera F., Montani A., Paccagnella T. The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 2005, 12:527-536.
19. Miller M., Buizza R., Haseler J., Hortal M., Janssen P., Untch A. Increased resolution in the ECMWF deterministic and ensemble prediction systems. ECMWF Newsletter 2010, 124:10-16.
20. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 1970, 10:282-290.
21. Ntegeka, V., Salamon, P., Gomes, G., Sint, H., Lorini, V., Thielen, J., 2013. A high-resolution European dataset for hydrologic modeling. In: EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, 15, 7460.
22. Pagano T.C. Evaluation of Mekong River Commission operational flood forecasts, 2000-2012. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2013, 10:14433-14461. 10.5194/hessd-10-14433-2013.
23. Pappenberger F., Thielen J., Del Medico M. The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System. Hydrol. Process. 2010, 25:1091-1113. 10.1002/hyp.7772.
24. Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Albergel C., Alfieri L., Balsamo G., Bogner K., Haiden T., Hewson T., Magnusson L., de Rosnay P., Muñoz Sabater J., Tsonevsky I. Floods in Central Europe in June 2013. ECMWF Newsletter 2013, 136:9-11.
25. Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M.H., Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Bogner, K., Mueller, A., Salamon, P., submitted. How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological Ensemble Predictions, J. Hydrol.
26. Plate, E.J., Lindenmaier, F., 2008. Quality assessment of forecasts. In: Mekong River Commission: Sixth Annual Flood Forum, Phnom Penh, May, 10pp.
27. Randrianasolo A., Ramos M.H., Thirel G., Andreassian V., Martin E. Comparing the scores of hydrological ensemble forecasts issued by two different hydrological models. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2010, 11:100-107. 10.1002/asl.259.
28. Reed S., Schaake J., Zhang Z. A distributed hydrologic model and threshold frequency-based method for flash flood forecasting at ungauged locations. J. Hydrol. 2007, 337:402-420.
29. Renner M., Werner M.G.F., Rademacher S., Sprokkereef E. Verification of ensemble flow forecasts for the River Rhine. J. Hydrol. 2009, 376:463-475.
30. Steppeler J., Doms G., Schattler U., Bitzer H.W., Gassmann A., Damrath U., Gregoric G. Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2003, 82:75-96.
31. Thielen J., Bartholmes J., Ramos M.-H., De Roo A. The European flood alert system - part 1: concept and development. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 13:125-140.
32. Thirel G., Rousset-Regimbeau F., Martin E., Habets F. On the impact of short-range meteorological forecasts for ensemble streamflow predictions. J. Hydrometeorol. 2008, 9:1301-1317.
33. Trinh B.N., Thielen-del Pozo J., Thirel G. The reduction continuous rank probability score for evaluating discharge forecasts from hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2013, 14:61-65. 10.1002/asl2.417.
34. Van der Knijff J.M., Younis J., de Roo A.P.J. LISFLOOD: a GIS-based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation. Int. J. Geogr. Inform. Sci. 2010, 24:189-212.
35. Verkade J.S., Brown J.D., Reggiani P., Weerts A.H. Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales. J. Hydrol. 2013, 501:73-91. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.039.
36. Wetterhall F., Pappenberger F., Alfieri L., Cloke H.L., Thielen-del Pozo J., Balabanova S., Danˇhelka J., Vogelbacher A., Salamon P., Carrasco I., Cabrera-Tordera A.J., Corzo-Toscano M., Garcia-Padilla M., Garcia-Sanchez R.J., Ardilouze C., Jurela S., Terek B., Csik A., Casey J., Stankunavicˇius G., Ceres V., Sprokkereef E., Stam J., Anghel E., Vladikovic D., Alionte Eklund C., Hjerdt N., Djerv H., Holmberg F., Nilsson J., Nystro¨m K., Susˇnik M., Hazlinger M., Holubecka M. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts". Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013, 17:4389-4399. 10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013.
37. Wilks D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction, electronic version 2006, Elsevier, San Diego, CA.
38. Wittmann C., Haiden T., Kann A. Evaluating multi-scale precipitation forecasts using high resolution analysis. Adv. Sci. Res. 2010, 4:89-98.
39. Wood A.W., Kumar A., Lettenmaier D.P. A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States. J. Geophys. Res-Atmos. 2005, 110. 10.1029/2004JD004508.