Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

PLoS Medicine

Volumn 11, Issue 5, 2014, Pages

  Garske, Tini ^a   Van Kerkhove, Maria D ^a   Yactayo, Sergio ^b   Ronveaux, Olivier ^b   Lewis, Rosamund F ^c   Staples, J Erin ^d   Perea, William ^b   Ferguson, Neil M ^a   Burke, Donald ^e   De La Hoz, Fernando ^e   Grenfell, Bryan ^e   Hansen, Peter M ^e   Hutubessy, Raymond ^e  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

^c Ottawa Public Health   (Canada)

^d CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (United States)

^e Arboviral Disease Branch Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ^*

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

YELLOW FEVER VACCINE;

AREA UNDER THE CURVE; ARTICLE; CALCULATION; DISEASE SEVERITY; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; HEALTH CARE SURVEY; HUMAN; IMMUNIZATION; INCIDENCE; LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS; PATHOGEN LOAD; PROBABILITY; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEROLOGY; VACCINATION; WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION; YELLOW FEVER; AFRICA; BAYES THEOREM; CAUSE OF DEATH; COST OF ILLNESS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; GEOGRAPHY; MASS IMMUNIZATION; MORTALITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; TRANSMISSION;

AFRICA; BAYES THEOREM; CAUSE OF DEATH; COST OF ILLNESS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; MASS VACCINATION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEROEPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES; YELLOW FEVER;

EID: 84901393844     PISSN: 15491277     EISSN: 15491676     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001638     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Monath TP, (2001) Yellow fever: an update. Lancet Infect Dis 1: 11-20.
2. Tomori O, (2004) Yellow fever: the recurring plague. Crit Rev Clin Lab Sci 41: 391-427.
3. World Health Organization (1986) Prevention and control of yellow fever in Africa. Geneva: World Health Organization.
4. World Health Organization (1990) Yellow fever in 1988. Weekly Epidemiological Record 65: 213-219.
5. World Health Organization. Yellow fever fact sheet no 100. Available: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs100/en/. Accessed 19 January 2014.
6. World Health Organization Expanded Programme on Immunization (1992) The Resurgence of deadly yellow fever: prevention using EPI. Geneva: WHO.
7. Monath TP, Nasidi A, (1993) Should yellow fever vaccine be included in the expanded program of immunization in Africa? A cost-effectiveness analysis for Nigeria. Am J Trop Med Hyg 48: 274-299.
8. LaBeaud AD, Bashir F, King CH, (2011) Measuring the burden of arboviral diseases: the spectrum of morbidity and mortality from four prevalent infections. Population Health Metrics 9: 1.
9. Lee LA, Franzel L, Atwell J, Datta SD, Friberg IK, et al. (2013) The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Vaccine 31: B61-B72.
10. Rogers D, Wilson A, Hay S, Graham A, (2006) The global distribution of yellow fever and dengue. Adv Parasit 62: 181-220.
11. Jentes ES, Poumerol G, Gershman MD, Hill DR, Lemarchand J, et al. (2011) The revised global yellow fever risk map and recommendations for vaccination, 2010: consensus of the Informal WHO Working Group on Geographic Risk for Yellow Fever. Lancet Infect Dis 11: 622-632.
12. Briand S, Beresniak A, Nguyen T, Yonli T, Duru G, et al. (2009) Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 3: e483.
13. World Health Organization. Weekly Epidemiological Record. Available: http://www.who.int/wer/en/. Accessed 11 June 2012.
14. World Health Organization. Disease Outbreak News. Available: http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/. Accessed 11 June 2012.
15. De Cock KM, Nasidi A, Enriquez J, Craven RB, Okafor BC, et al. (1988) Epidemic yellow fever in Eastern Nigeria, 1986. Lancet 331: 630-633.
16. Nasidi A, Monath TP, DeCock K, Tomori O, Cordellier R, et al. (1989) Urban yellow fever epidemic in western Nigeria, 1987. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 83: 401-406.
17. Nathan N, Barry M, Van Herp M, Zeller H, (2001) Shortage of vaccines during a yellow fever outbreak in Guinea. Lancet 358: 2129-2130.
18. Sanders EJ, Marfin AA, Tukei PM, Kuria G, Ademba G, et al. (1998) First recorded outbreak of yellow fever in Kenya, 1992-1993. I. Epidemiologic investigations. Am J Trop Med Hyg 59: 644-649.
19. Thonnon J, Fontenille D, Tall A, Diallo M, Renaudineau Y, et al. (1998) Re-emergence of yellow fever in Senegal in 1995. Am J Trop Med Hyg 59: 108-114.
20. Monath TP, (1980) Yellow fever in the Gambia, 1978-1979: epidemiologic aspects with observations on the occurrence of Orungo virus infections. Am J Trop Med Hyg 29: 912.
21. Johansson MA, Staples JE (2013) The whole yellow fever iceberg: estimating the incidence of infection from the number of severe cases. Epidemics 4. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
22. Durieux C (1956) Mass yellow fever vaccination in French Africa south of the Sahara. Monograph Series World Health Organization. Geneva: WHO. pp. 115-122.
23. World Health Organization (2012) Immunization surveillance, assessment and monitoring. Available: http://www.who.int/immunization_monitoring/data/data_subject/en/index.html. Accessed 11 June 2012.
24. World Health Organization, unicef (2009) Yellow Fever Initiative Progress Report 2006 to 2009. Geneva: World Health Organization.
25. World Health Organization, unicef (2010) Yellow Fever Initiative Joint WHO and UNICEF 2010 Progress Report. Geneva: World Health Organization.
26. World Health Organization (2013) Vaccines and vaccination against yellow fever. WHO Position Paper- June 2013. Weekly Epidemiological Record 88: 269-284.
27. Coulange Bodilis H, Benabdelmoumen G, Gergely A, Goujon C, Pelicot M, et al. (2011) [Long term persistence of yellow fever neutralising antibodies in elderly persons]. Bull Soc Pathol Exot 104: 260-265.
28. Poland JD, Calisher CH, Monath TP, Downs WG, Murphy K, (1981) Persistence of neutralizing antibody 30-35 years after immunization with 17D yellow fever vaccine. Bull World Health Organ 59: 895-900.
29. Diallo M, Janusz K, Lewis R, Manengu C, Sall AA, et al. (2010) Rapid assessment of yellow fever viral activity in the Central African Republic. Geneva: World Health Organization.
30. Kuniholm MH, Wolfe ND, Huang CY-H, Mpoudi-Ngole E, Tamoufe U, et al. (2006) Seroprevalence and distribution of Flaviviridae, Togaviridae, and Bunyaviridae arboviral infections in rural Cameroonian adults. Am J Trop Med Hyg 74: 1078-1083.
31. Merlin M, Josse R, Kouka Bemba D, Meunier D, Senga J, et al. (1986) [Evaluation of immunological and entomotological indices of yellow fever in Pointe-Noire, People's Republic of Congo]. Bulletin de la Société de pathologie exotique 79: 199-206.
32. Omilabu SA, Adejumo JO, Olaleye OD, Fagbami AH, Baba SS, (1990) Yellow fever haemagglutination-inhibiting, neutralising and IgM antibodies in vaccinated and unvaccinated residents of Ibadan, Nigeria. Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis 13: 95-100.
33. Tsai TF, Lazuick JS, Ngah RW, Mafiamba PC, Quincke G, et al. (1987) Investigation of a possible yellow fever epidemic and serosurvey for flavivirus infections in northern Cameroon, 1984. Bull World Health Organ 65: 855-860.
34. Werner GT, Huber HC, Fresenius K, (1985) [Prevalence of yellow fever antibodies in north Zaire]. Annales de la Societe belge de medecine tropicale 65: 91-93.
35. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Available: http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm. Accessed 11 June 2011.
36. Bright EA, Coleman PR, King AL, Rose AN (2008) LandScan 2007. Oak Ridge (Tennessee). Available: http://www.ornl.gov/landscan/. Accessed 10 December 2013.
37. Dobson JE, Bright EA, Coleman PR, Durfee RC, Worley BA, (2000) LandScan: a global population database for estimating populations at risk. Photogramm Eng Rem S 66: 849-857.
38. Kleinschmidt I, Omumbo J, Briët O, Van De Giesen N, Sogoba N, et al. (2001) An empirical malaria distribution map for West Africa. Trop Med Int Health 6: 779-786.
39. Xie P, Arkin PA, (1996) Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J Climate 9: 840-858.
40. Garske T, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, (2013) Estimating air temperature and its influence on malaria transmission across Africa. PLoS ONE 8: e56487.
41. Loveland TR, Belward AS, (1997) The IGBP-DIS global 1 km land cover data set, DISCover: first results. Int J Remote Sens 18: 3289-3295.
42. NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 1 km SIN Grid (12Q1). USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Available: http://lpdaac.usgs.gov/get_data. Accessed 13 July 2012.
43. NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) Vegetation Indices 16-Day L3 Global 1 km (13A2). USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Available: http://lpdaac.usgs.gov/get_data. Accessed 13 July 2012.
44. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL. WorldClim. Available: http://www.worldclim.org/. Accessed 12 January 2012.
45. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A, (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25: 1965-1978.
46. Brooks S, Gelman A, Jones GL, Meng X-L, editors (2011) Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. Boca Raton (Florida): Chapman & Hall/CRC.
47. Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ (1996) Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice. Boca Raton (Florida): Chapman & Hall/CRC.
48. Heinze G, Schemper M, (2002) A solution to the problem of separation in logistic regression. Stat in Med 21: 2409-2419.
49. Schwarz G, (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6: 461-464.
50. DeLong ER, DeLong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL, (1988) Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics 44: 837-845.
51. Moreau JP, Girault G, Dram I, Perraut R, (1999) [Reemergence of yellow fever in West Africa: lessons from the past, advocacy for a control program]. Bulletin de la Société de pathologie exotique 92: 333-336.
52. World Health Organization (2003) Yellow fever vaccine. Weekly Epidemiological Record 78: 349-359.
53. World Health Organization (2012) Yellow fever reported cases. Available: http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/en/globalsummary/timeseries/tsincidenceyfe.htm. Accessed 24 April 2013.
54. GAVI Alliance. Vaccine investment strategy. Available: http://www.gavialliance.org/about/strategy/vaccine-investment-strategy/. Accessed 18 January 2014.
55. GAVI Alliance (2013) Yellow fever vaccine investment strategy. Background document #5. GAVI Alliance. Available: http://www.gavialliance.org/library/gavi-documents/strategy/final-vis-analysis-2013-yellow-fever/. Accessed 18 January 2014.