Spatio-temporal variability of vegetation cover over Morocco (1982-2008): Linkages with large scale climate and predictability

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 34, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 1245-1261

  Jarlan, L ^a,b   Driouech, F ^b   Tourre, Y ^c,d   Duchemin, B ^a   Bouyssie M ^a   Abaoui, J ^b   Ouldbba, A ^b   Mokssit, A ^b   Chehbouni, G ^a  

^a CESBIO   (France)

^b Ain Chock Face Préfecture Hay Hassani ^*  (Morocco)

^c METEO FRANCE   (France)

^d Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

Morocco; NAO; NDVI; Predictability; Remote sensing; Vegetation

Indexed keywords

EXTENDED EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; MOROCCO; MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSIONS; NAO; NDVI; PREDICTABILITY; SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIABILITY;

LANDFORMS; LINEAR REGRESSION; OCEANOGRAPHY; REMOTE SENSING;

VEGETATION;

ANNUAL VARIATION; AVHRR; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; NDVI; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REMOTE SENSING; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; VEGETATION COVER;

ATLANTIC COAST [MOROCCO]; ATLANTIC COAST [NORTH AFRICA]; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; MOROCCO; RIF; SCANDINAVIA;

EID: 84900590054     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3762     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Anyamba A, Tucker CJ, Mahoney R. 2002. From El Niño to La Niña: vegetation response patterns over East and Southern Africa during the 1997-2000 period. Journal of Climate 15(21): 3096-3103.
2. Arino O, Bicheron P, Achard F, Latham J, Witt R, Webet JL. 2008. GLOBCOVER: the most detailed portrait of Earth. ESA Bulletin 136: 24-31.
3. Balaghi R. 2006. Wheat Grain Yield Forecasting Models for Food Security in Morocco., Ph.D. Thesis, University of Liège, Belgium, 103 pp.
4. Balaghi R, Tychon B, Eerens H, Jlibene M. 2008. Empirical regression models using NDVI, rainfall and temperature data for the early prediction of wheat grain yields in Morocco. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 10(4): 438-452.
5. Baldwin MP, Gray LJ, Dunkerton TJ, Hamilton K, Haynes PH, Randel WJ, Holton JR, Alexander MJ, Hirota I, Horinouchi T, Jones DBA, Kinnersley JS, Marquardt C, Sato K, Takahashi M. 2006. The quasi-biennial oscillation. Review of Geophysics 39(2): 179-229.
6. Barnston AG, Livezey RE. 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Monthly Weather Review 115(6): 1083-1126.
7. Barnston AG, Smith TM. 1996. Specification and prediction of global surface temperature and precipitation from global SST using CCA. Journal of Climate 9: 2660-2697.
8. Bolle HJ. 2002. Mediterranean Climate: Variability and Trends. Regional Climate Studies Series, Editors H.J. Bolle, M. Menenti and I. Rasool, ISBN 3-540-43838-6, Springer Verlag Berlin Heidelberg NewYork, 372 pp.
9. Bonan GB, Levis S, Kergoat L, Oleson KW. 2002. Landscapes as patches of plant functional types: An integrating concept for climate and ecosystems models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16: 1021.
10. Brown ME, de Beurs K. 2008. Evaluation of multi-sensor semi-arid crop season parameters based on NDVI and rainfall. Remote Sensing of Environment 112: 2261-2271.
11. Brown ME, De Beurs K, Vrieling A. 2010. The response of African land surface phenology to large scale climate oscillations. Remote Sensing of Environment 114: 2286-2296.
12. Bzoui M. 2005. Rapport sous-régional sur la mise en valeur des resources en eau en Afrique du Nord, Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement, UN WATER-AFRICA, 68 pp.
13. Cassou C, Terray L. 2001. Dual influence of Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Atlantic/Europe winter climate. Geophysical Research Letters 28(16): 3195-3198.
14. Cassou C, Terray L, Hurrell JW, Deser C. 2004. North Atlantic winter climate regimes: spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time, and oceanic forcing. Journal of Climate 17: 1055-1068.
15. Cassou C, Deser C, Alexander M. a. 2007. Investigating the Impact of Reemerging Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic. Journal of Climate 20(14), 3510-3526. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4202.1.
16. Czaja A, Frankignoul C. 2002. Observed impact of Atlantic SST anomalies on the North Atlantic oscillation. Journal of Climate 15: 606-623.
17. Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T. 2004. A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology 5: 1117-1130. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-386.1.
18. Davenport ML, Nicholson SE. 1993. On the relation between rainfall and the normalized difference vegetation index for diverse vegetation types in East Africa. International Journal of Remote Sensing 14: 2369-2389.
19. Erasmi S, Propastin P, Kappas M. 2009. Spatial patterns of NDVI variation over Indonesia and their relationship to ENSO warm events during the period 1982-2006. Journal of Climate 22: 6612-6623.
20. Esper J, Franck D, Büntgen U, Verstege A, Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E. 2007. Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17702. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030844.
21. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L. 1999. How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in the tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures? Journal of Geophysical Research 104(C04): 7841-7848.
22. Fletcher CG, Saunders MA. 2006. Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Hindcast Skill: 1900-2001. Journal of Climate 19(2002): 5762-5776.
23. Funk CC, Brown ME. 2006. NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa. Remote Sensing of Environment 101: 249-256.
24. Fontaine B, Philippon N, Camberlin P. 1999. An improvement of June-September rainfall forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April-May moist static energy content. Geophysical Research Letters 26(14): 2041-2044.
25. Guttman NB. 1998. Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34: 113-121.
26. Hansen JW, Jones JW, Kiker CF, Hodges AW. 1999. El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida. Journal of Climate 12: 92-102.
27. Houghton RW, Tourre YM. 1992. Charateristics of Low-Frequency Sea Surface Temperature fluctuations in the Tropical atlantic. Journal of Climate 5: 765-771.
28. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269: 676-679.
29. Hurrell JW, Van Loon H. 1997. Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Change 36: 301-326.
30. Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M. 2003. An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation. The North Atlantic oscillation: climate significance and environmental impact. In Geophysical Monograph Series 134, Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (eds). AGU: Washington, DC; 1-36.
31. Jarlan L, Tourre YM, Mougin E, Philippon N, Mazzega P. 2005. Dominant patterns of AVHRR NDVI inter-annual variability over the Sahel and linkages with key climate signals (1982-2003). Geophysical Research Letters 32(4): L04701.1-L04701.4.
32. Jarlan L, Balsamo G, Lafont S, Beljaars A, Calvet JC, Mougin E. 2008. Analysis of the Leaf Area Index in the ECMWF land surface model. Application to West Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere 113: D24117. DOI: 10.1029/2007JD009370.
33. Ji L, Peters AJ. 2004. Forecasting Vegetation Greenness With Satellite and Climate Data. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 1(1): 3-6.
34. Jlidene M, Balaghi R. 2009. Le risque Sècheresse en Agriculture Pluviale: cas des céreales, Bulletin mensuel d'information et liaison du PNTTA, http://www.vulgarisation.net/btt_181.pdf.
35. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3): 437-471.
36. Kaufmann RK, Zhou L, Knyazikhin Y, Shabanov N, Myneni R, Tucker CJ. 2000. Effect of orbital drift and sensor changes on the time series of AVHRR vegetation index data. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 38: 2584-2597.
37. Knight J, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME. 2005. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophysical Research Letters 32: -L20708. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024233.
38. Knippertz P, Fink AH, Reiner A, Speth P. 2002. Three late summer/early autumn cases of tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in Northwest Africa. Monthly Weather Review 131: 116-135.
39. Knippertz P, Christoph M, Speth P. 2003. Long-term precipitation variability in Morocco and the link to the large-scale circulation in recent and future climates. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 83: 67-88.
40. Kutiel H, Maheras P, Guika S. 1996. Circulation indices over the Mediterranean and Europe and their relationship with rainfall conditions across the Mediterranean. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 54: 125-138.
41. Lamb PJ, Peppler RA. 1987. North Atlantic oscillation: concept and an application. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 68(10): 1218-1225.
42. Latif M, Grötzner A. 2000. On the equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO. Climate Dynamics 16: 213-218.
43. Le Houérou HN. 1989. The Grazing Land Ecosystems of the African Sahel, Ecological Studies 75. Springer-Verlag: Berlin.
44. Letson D, Messina C, Podesta G, Royce F, Andre R, Hansen J, Llovet I, et al. 2002. Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agricultural Systems 74: 371-392.
45. Los SO, Collatz GJ, Bounoua L, Sellers PJ, Tucker CJ. 2001. Global inter-annual variations in sea surface temperature and land surface vegetation air temperature and precipitation. Journal of Climate 14: 1535-1549.
46. Lotsch A, Friedl MA, Anderson BT, Tucker CJ. 2003. Coupled vegetation-precipitation variability observed from satellite and climate records. Geophysical Research Letters 30(14): 8-11. DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017506.
47. Lotsch A, Friedl MA, Anderson BT, Tucker CJ. 2005. Response of terrestrial ecosystems to recent Northern Hemispheric drought. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L06705. DOI: 10.1029/2004GK022043.
48. Lu J, Greatbatch RJ. 2002. The changing relationship between the NAO and Northern Hemisphere climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters 29(7): 1148. DOI: 10.1029/2001GL014052.
49. Mann ME, Park J. 1994. Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on inter-annual to century timescales. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 25819-25933.
50. Mariotti A, Zeng N, And Lau K-M. 2002. Euro-Mediterranean rainfall and ENSO-a seasonally varying relationships. Geophysical Research Letters 29(12): 1621. DOI: 10.1029/2001GL014248.
51. Marshall J, Kushnir J, Battisti D, Chang P, Czaja A, Dickson R, Hurrell J, McCartney M, Saravanah R, Visbeck M. 2001. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms, 2001. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1863-1898.
52. Martiny N, Philippon N, Richard Y, Camberlin P, Reason C. 2010. Predictability of NDVI in semi-arid African regions. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 100: 467-484.
53. Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ, Asrar G, Nemani RR. 1997. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981-1991. Nature 386: 698-701.
54. Nicholson SE, Davenport ML, Malo AR. 1990. A comparison of the vegetation response to rainfall in the Sahel and East Africa using the normalized difference vegetation index from NOAA AVHRR. Climatic Change 17: 209-241.
55. Niyogi D, Kishtawal C, Tripathi S, Govindaraju RS. 2010. Observational evidence that agricultural intensification and land use change may be reducing the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Water Resources Research 46. DOI: 10.1029/2008WR007082.
56. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ. 1982. Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Monthly Weather Review 110: 699-706.
57. Paz S, Tourre YM, Brolley J. 2008. Multitemporal climate variability over the Atlantic Ocean and Eurasia: linkages with Mediterranean and West African Climate. Atmospheric Science Letters 9: 106-201.
58. Peng S, Robinson WA, Li S. 2002. North Atlantic SST Forcing of the NAO and Relationships with Intrinsic Hemispheric Variability, 29(8): 8-11.
59. Philippon N, Jarlan L, Camberlin P, Martiny N, Mougin E. 2007. Characterization of the inter-annual and intraseasonnal variability of West African vegetation between 1982-2002 from NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data. Journal of Climate 20: 1202-1218.
60. Philippon N, Martiny N, Camberlin P. 2008. Forecasting the vegetation photosynthetic activity over the Sahel: a model output statistics approach. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1797.
61. Piervitali E, Colacino M. 2001. Evidence of drought in Western Sicily during the Period 1565-1915 from liturgical offices. Climatic Change 49: 1-2. DOI: 10.1023/A:1010746612289.
62. Preisendorfer RW, Mobley CD. 1988. Principal component analysis in meteorology and oceanography. Elsevier, Amsterdam and New York, ISBN 0444430148, 425 pp.
63. Prince SD. 1991. Satellite remote sensing of primary production: comparison of results for Sahelian grasslands 1981-1988. International Journal of Remote Sensing 12(6): 1301-1311.
64. Rajagopalan B, Kushnir Y, Tourre YM. 1998. Observed decadal midlatitudes and tropical Atlantic climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters 25: 3967-3970.
65. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W. 2002. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. Journal of Climate 15: 1609-1625.
66. Richman MB. 1986. Rotation of principal components. Journal of Climatology 6: 293-335.
67. Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Polo I, Serrano E, Castro M. 2006. Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation SST Forcing on the European and Northern African Winter Climate. International Journal of Climate 26: 179-191.
68. Rowell DP. 1998. Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. Journal of Climate 11: 109-120.
69. Robertson AW, Mechoso CR, Kim Y. 1998. The Influence of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate 310: 1-28.
70. Rudolf B. and Schneider U., 2005, Calculation of gridded precipitation data for the global land-surface using in-situ gauge observations, Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group IPWG, Monterey, October 2004, 231-247.
71. Sarkar S, Kafatos M. 2004. Inter-annual variability of vegetation over the Indian sub-continent and its relation to the different meteorological parameters. Remote Sensing of Environment 90(2): 268-280. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2004.01.003.
72. Simonneaux V, Duchemin B, Helson D, Er-Raki S, Olioso A, Chehbouni AG. 2007. The use if high-resolution image time series for crop classification and evapotranspiration estimate over an irrigated area in central Morocco. International Journal of Remote Sensing 29(1): 95-116.
73. Slayback DA, Pinzon JE, Los SO, Tucker C. 2003. Northern hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982-1999. Global Change Biology 9: 1-15.
74. Theil H. 1961. Economic Forecasts and Policy., North-Holland, Amsterdam, 567 pp.
75. Tourre YM, Rajagopalan B, Kushnir Y. 1999. Dominant patterns of climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean during the last 136 years. Journal of Climate 12: 2285-2299.
76. Tourre Y, Jarlan L, Lacaux JP. 2008. AVHRR NDVI spatio-temporal patterns of variability over the Southern South America. Environmental Research Letters 3: 4. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044008.
77. Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N, Ropelewski C. 1998. Progress during TOGA in understanding and modelling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 14291-14324.
78. Tucker CJ. 1979. Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation. Remote Sensing of Environment 8: 127-150.
79. Tucker CJ, Townshend JRG, Goff TE. 1985. African land cover classification using satellite data. Science 227: 369-375.
80. Tucker CJ, Pinzon JE, Brown ME, Slayback DA, Pak EW, Mahoney R, Vermote EF, Saleous NE. 2005. An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI data set compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26: 4485-4498.
81. Venegas S. 2001. Statistical Methods for Signal Detection in Climate, Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) report, Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy, Physics and Geophysics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
82. Viovy N, Arino O, Belward AS. 1992. The best index slope extraction (BISE)-a method for reducing noise in NDVI time series. International Journal of Remote Sensing 13: 1585-1590. DOI: 10.1080/01431169208904212.
83. Von Storch H, Zwiers FW. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK), ISBN 0 521 45071 3, 494 pp.
84. Wang J, Rich PM, Price KP. 2003. Temporal responses of NDVI to precipitation and temperature in the central Great Plains. International Journal of Remote Sensing 24: 2345-2364.
85. Wang D, Wang C, Yang X, Lu J. 2005. Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variability associated with the Arctic Oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L16706. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL022952.
86. Wibig J. 1999. Precipitation in Europe in relation to circulation patterns at the 500hPa level. International Journal of Climatology 19: 253-269.
87. Xoplaki E. 2002. Climate Variability over the Mediterranean. PhD thesis, University of Bern, Switzerland, http://sinus.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/phd_xoplaki.pdf.
88. Xoplaki E, Gonzales-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H. 2004. Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large scale dynamics and trends. Climate Dynamics 23: 63-78. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0422-0.