Modeling method of cascading crisis events based on merging Bayesian Network

Decision Support Systems

Volumn 62, Issue , 2014, Pages 94-105

  Qiu, Jiangnan ^a   Wang, Zhiqiang ^a   Ye, Xin ^a   Liu, Lili ^a   Dong, Leilei ^a  

^a DALIAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (China)

Author keywords

Bayesian network; Cascading crisis events; Crisis management; Modeling method

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS; MERGING; STORMS;

CRISIS EARLY WARNINGS; CRISIS EVENTS; CRISIS MANAGEMENT; DISASTER MITIGATION; FORECASTING ACCURACY; MODEL METHOD; SAMPLE APPLICATIONS; THREE-LAYER STRUCTURES;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS;

EID: 84900522324     PISSN: 01679236     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2014.03.007     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Z.L. Liao, B. Wang, X.W. Xia, and P.M. Hannam Environmental emergency decision support system based on Artificial Neural network Safety Science 50 2012 150 163
2. K.N. Papamichail, and S. French Design and evaluation of an intelligent decision support system for nuclear emergencies Decision Support Systems 41 2005 84 111 (Pubitemid 41375567)
3. S. Tufekci An integrated emergency management decision support system for hurricane emergencies Safety Science 20 1995 39 48
4. E. Todini An operational decision support system for flood risk mapping, forecasting and management Urban Water 1 1999 131 143 (Pubitemid 129504785)
5. Y.T. Feng, and S.X. Xiao Chain mechanism and optimized control of collapses, landslides and debris flows Journal of Catastrophology 24 2009 22 26
6. J.L. Han, S.R. Wu, and H.B. Wang Preliminary study on geological hazard chains Earth Science Frontiers 14 2007 11 23
7. Y.K. Li, J.R. Ni, and X.X. Li Classification and gradation of sediment disasters and their chain Journal of Natural Disasters 14 2005 15 24
8. B.A. Metri Disaster mitigation framework for India using quality circle approach Disaster Prevention and Management 15 2006 621 635 (Pubitemid 44259741)
9. J.B. Wu A discussion on disaster chain in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and Taiwan Journal of Catastrophology 17 2002 82 87
10. J.T. Rodriguez, B. Vitoriano, and J. Mentero A general methodology for data-based rule building and its application to natural disaster management Computers & Operations Research 39 2012 863 873
11. C. Fang, and F. Marle A simulation-based risk network model for decision support in project risk management Decision Support Systems 52 2012 635 644
12. J.W. Wang, and L.L. Rong Research on chain-reacting network model of emergency events Application Research of Computers 25 2008 3288 3291
13. W.C. Fan Advisement and suggestion to scientific problems of emergency management for public incidents Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China 2 2007 71 76
14. W.R. Gilks, A. Thomas, and D.J. Spiegelhalter A language and program for complex Bayesian modeling The Statistician 43 1994 169 177
15. A. Gelman, J.B. Carlin, H.S. Stern, and D.B. Rubin Bayesian data analysis Text in Statistical Science 1995 Chapman & Hall 0-412-03991-5
16. L. Uusitalo Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modeling Ecological Modeling 203 2007 312 318 (Pubitemid 46529068)
17. P.J. Shi Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fourth time Journal of Natural Disasters 14 2005 1 7
18. L.C. van der Gaag, and S. Renooij Probabilistic networks as probabilistic forecasters Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Medicine in Europe 2003 Springer Verlag Berlin 294 298 (LNAI 2780) (Pubitemid 37342905)
19. O. Varis A belief network approach to optimization and parameter estimation: application to resource and environmental management Artificial Intelligence 101 1998 135 163 (Pubitemid 128387391)
20. S. Chen, and S.A. Billings Representations of non-linear systems: the NARMAX model International Journal of Control 49 1989 1013 1032 (Pubitemid 20610988)
21. K.G. Zografos, G.M. Vasilakis, and I.M. Giannouli Methodlogical framework for developing decision support systems (DSS) for hazardous materials emergency response operations Journal of Hazardous Materials 71 2000 503 521 (Pubitemid 30085582)
22. F.V. Jensen An Introduction to Bayesian Networks 1996 Springer New York
23. J. Pearl Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference 1998 Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Inc. San Francisco CA
24. Y. Wang, S.Q. Shu, and Y.H. Liu Bayesian network structural learning algorithm based on mutual information Computer Engineering 37 2011 62 64
25. L.W. Zhang, and H.P. Guo Introduction to Bayesian Networks 2006 Scientific publishers (In Chinese)
26. S.L. Laruitzen, and D.J. Spiegelhalter Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their applications to expert system Proceedings of the Royal Statistical Society B50 1988 154 227
27. P. Kontkanen, P. Myllymaki, T. Silander, and H. Tirri Comparing predictive inference methods for discrete domains Proceedings of the sixth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Ft. Lauderdele, USA 1997 311 318
28. Taiwain Central Weather Bureau Report on Typhoons http://photino.cwb.gov. tw/rdcweb/lib/cd/cd02tyrp/index.htm 2008 (2012-06-17)
29. H.A. Panofsky, and G.W. Brier Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology 1996 The Pennsylvania State University University park, Pennsylvania
30. J.Q. Smith Decision Analysis: a Bayesian Approach 1988 Chapman & Hall New York
31. F.V. Jensen Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs 2001 Springer-Verlag New York 0-387-95259-4
32. Y. Zhu, L.M. Huo, and J.L. Lu Bayesian Networks-based approach for power systems fault diagnosis IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 21 2 2006 634 639