Sensitivity of climate change detection and attribution to the characterization of internal climate variability

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 10, 2014, Pages 3477-3491

  Imbers, Jara ^a   Lopez, Ana ^b   Huntingford, Chris ^c   Allen, Myles ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (United Kingdom)

^c CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CHARACTERIZATION; GREENHOUSE GASES;

ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS; AUTOCORRELATION STRUCTURES; CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION; DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTIONS; GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCE; AUTOCORRELATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE VARIATION; DETECTION METHOD; EMISSION; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GREENHOUSE GAS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SPATIAL VARIATION; STOCHASTICITY;

EID: 84900462170     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00622.1     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Allen, M., and S. Tett, 1999: Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Climate Dyn., 15, 419-434, doi:10.1007/s003820050291.
2. Allen, M., and P. Stott, 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: Theory. Climate Dyn., 21, 477-491, doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9.
3. Allen, M., D. J. Frame, C. Huntigford, C. D. Jones, J. Lowe, M. Meinshausen, and N. Meinhausend, 2009: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458, 1163-1166, doi:10.1038/nature08019.
4. Andrews, D. G., and M. R. Allen, 2008: Diagnosis of climate models in terms of transient climate response and feedback response time. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 7-12, doi:10.1002/asl.163.
5. Beran, J., 1994: Statistics for Long-Memory Processes. Monogr. Stat. Appl. Prob., No. 61, Chapman and Hall, 315 pp.
6. Bloomfield, P., 1992: Trends in global temperature. Climatic Change, 21, 1-16, doi:10.1007/BF00143250.
7. Bretherton, C., and D. Battisti, 2000: Interpretation of the results fromatmospheric general circulationmodels forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 767-770, doi:10.1029/1999GL010910.
8. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
9. DelSole, T., and J. Shukla, 2010: Model fidelity versus skill in seasonal forecasting. J. Climate, 23, 4794-4806, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3164.1.
10. DelSole, T., M. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming. J. Climate, 24, 909-926, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3659.1.
11. a noise is equivalent to an eigenstructure power relation. Europhys. Lett., 95, 60 006, doi:10.1209/0295-5075/95/60006.
12. Esper, J., and Coauthors, 2012: Orbital forcing of tree-ring data. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 862-866, doi:10.1038/nclimate1589.
13. Ghil, M., 2001: Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 8, 211-211, doi:10.5194/npg-8-211-2001.
14. Ghil, M., 2014: Climate variability: Nonlinear and random effects. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd ed., G. R. North, F. Zhang, and J. Pyle, Eds., Elsevier, in press.
15. Ghil, M., and Coauthors, 2002: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev. Geophys., 40, 1003, doi:10.1029/2000RG000092.
16. Gil-Alana, L., 2005: Statistical modeling of the temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere using fractional integration techniques. J. Climate, 18, 5357-5369, doi:10.1175/JCLI3543.1.
17. Granger, C., 1980: Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models. J. Econometrics, 14, 227-238, doi:10.1016/0304-4076(80)90092-5.
18. Hasselmann, K., 1979: On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. Meteorology over the TropicalOceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Roy. Meteor. Soc., 251-259.
19. Hasselmann, K., 1993: Optimal fingerprints for the detection of timedependent climate change. J. Climate, 6, 1957-1971, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1957:OFFTDO>2.0.CO;2.
20. Hays, J., J. Imbrie, and N. Shackleton, 1976: Variations in theEarth's orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages. Science, 194, 1121-1132, doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121.
21. Hegerl, G. C., H. A. N. von Storch, K. Hasselmann, B. Santer, U. Cusbasch, and P. Jones, 1996: Detecting greenhouse-gasinduced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Climate, 9, 2281-2306, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2281:DGGICC>2.0.CO;2.
22. Huntingford, C., P. A. Stott, M. R. Allen, and F. H. Lambert, 2006: Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05710, doi:10.1029/2005GL024831.
23. Hurst, H., 1951: Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans. Amer. Soc. Civ. Eng., 116, 770-808.
24. Hurst, H., 1957: A suggested statistical model of some time series which occur in nature. Nature, 180, 494, doi:10.1038/180494a0.
25. Huybers, P., and W. Curry, 2006: Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability. Nature, 441, 329-332, doi:10.1038/nature04745.
26. Imbers, J., A. Lopez, C. Huntingford, and M. Allen, 2013: Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 3192-3199, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50296.
27. Kaulakys, B., J. Ruseckas, V. Gontis, and M. Alaburda, 2006: Nonlinear stochastic models of 1/f noise and power-law distributions. PhysicaA, 365, 217-221, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2006.01.017.
28. Klein, S., B. Soden, and N. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate, 12, 917-932, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0917:RSSTVD>2.0.CO;2.
29. Kmenta, J., 1971: Elements of Econometrics. Macmillan, 655 pp.
30. Levitus, S., J. Antonov, and T. Boyer, 2005: Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02604, doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.
31. Meinshausen, M., and Coauthors, 2011: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109, 213-241, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z.
32. Mitchell, J., Jr., 1976: An overview of climatic variability and its causal mechanisms. Quat. Res., 6, 481-493, doi:10.1016/0033-5894(76)90021-1.
33. Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, 2012: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187.
34. Newman, M., P. Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland, 2009: How important is air-sea coupling in ENSO and MJO evolution? J. Climate, 22, 2958-2977, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2659.1.
35. Pelletier, J., 1997: Analysis and modeling of the natural variability of climate. J. Climate, 10, 1331-1342, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1331:AAMOTN>2.0.CO;2.
36. Percival, D., J. Overland, and H. Mofjeld, 2001: Interpretation of North Pacific variability as a short-and long-memory process. J. Climate, 14, 4545-4559, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4545:IONPVA>2.0.CO;2.
37. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller Jr., Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
38. Stone, D., M. Allen, and P. Stott, 2007: Amultimodel update on the detection and attribution of global surface warming. J. Climate, 20, 517-530, doi:10.1175/JCLI3964.1.
39. Stott, P. A., J. F. B. Mitchell, M. R. Allen, T. L. Delworth, J. M. Gregory, G. A. Meehl, and B. D. Santer, 2006: Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming. J. Climate, 19, 3055-3069, doi:10.1175/JCLI3802.1.
40. Tett, S. F., P. A. Stott, M. R. Allen, W. J. Ingram, and J. F. Mitchell, 1999: Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the earth's surface. Nature, 399, 569-572, doi:10.1038/21164.
41. Vyushin, D., and P. Kushner, 2009: Power-law and long-memory characteristics of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Climate, 22, 2890-2904, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2528.1.
42. Vyushin, D., P. J. Kushner, and F. Zwiers, 2012: Modeling and understanding persistence of climate variability. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D21106, doi:10.1029/2012JD018240.
43. Wunsch, C., 2003: The spectral description of climate change including the 100 ky energy. Climate Dyn., 20, 353-363, doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0279-z.
44. Zhou, J., and K.-K. Tung, 2013: Deducing multidecadal anthropogenic global warming trends using multiple regression analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 3-8, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0208.1.