Forecasting influenza epidemics from multi-stream surveillance data in a subtropical city of China

PLoS ONE

Volumn 9, Issue 3, 2014, Pages

  Cao, Pei Hua ^a   Wang, Xin ^b   Fang, Shi Song ^b   Cheng, Xiao Wen ^b   Chan, King Pan ^a   Wang, Xi Ling ^a   Lu, Xing ^b   Wu, Chun Li ^b   Tang, Xiu Juan ^b   Zhang, Ren Li ^b   Ma, Han Wu ^b   Cheng, Jin Quan ^b   Wong, Chit Ming ^a   Yang, Lin ^a,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b SHENZHEN CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (China)

^c HONG KONG POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CHINA; DATA ANALYSIS; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; EPIDEMIC; FORECASTING; HUMAN; INFLUENZA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; PREDICTION; SEASONAL VARIATION; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; STATISTICAL MODEL; TROPICS; VIROLOGY; WAVELET ANALYSIS; GEOGRAPHY; HEALTH SURVEY; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; PROCEDURES; REPRODUCIBILITY; THEORETICAL MODEL;

CHINA; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, THEORETICAL; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS;

EID: 84899796391     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0092945     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. WHO (2002) Adoption of global agenda on influenza. Weekly Epidemiol Rec 77: 191-195.
2. Wong CM, Chan KP, Hedley AJ, Peiris JS (2004) Influenza-associated mortality in Hong Kong. Clin Infect Dis 39: 1611-1617. (Pubitemid 39578534)
3. Wong CM, Yang L, Chan KP, Leung GM, Chan KH, et al. (2006) Influenza-associated hospitalization in a subtropical city. PLoS Med 3: e121.
4. Viboud C, Alonso WJ, Simonsen L (2006) Influenza in tropical regions. PLoS Med 3: e89.
5. Alonso WJ, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Hirano WE, Daufenbach ZL, et al. (2007) Seasonality of Influenza in Brazil: A Traveling Wave from the Amazon to the Subtropics. American Journal of Epidemiology 165: 9.
6. Cowling BJ, Wong IO, Ho LM, Riley S, Leung GM (2006) Methods for monitoring influenza surveillance data. Int J Epidemiol 35: 1314-1321. (Pubitemid 44605559)
7. Wang X, Cheng XW, Ma HW, He JF, Xie X, et al. (2011) Influenza surveillance in Shenzhen, the largest migratory metropolitan city of China, 2006-2009. Epidemiol Infect 139: 1551-1559.
8. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2012) Overview of Influenza Surveillance in the United States. 5 p.
9. Monto AS, Gravenstein S, Elliott M, Colopy M, Schweinle J (2000) Clinical signs and symptoms predicting influenza infection. Archives of Internal Medicine 160: 5.
10. Widdowson MA, Bosman A, van Straten E, Tinga M, Chaves S, et al. (2003) Automated, laboratory-based system using the Internet for disease outbreak detection, the Netherlands. Emerg Infect Dis 9: 1046-1052. (Pubitemid 37071543)
11. Costagliola D, Flahault A, Galinec D, Garnerin P, Menares J, et al. (1991) A routine tool for detection and assessment of epidemics of influenza-like syndromes in France. Am J Public Health 81: 97-99.
12. Stern L, Lightfoot D (1999) Automated outbreak detection: a quantitative retrospective analysis. Epidemiol Infect 122: 103-110. (Pubitemid 29080410)
13. O'Brien SJ, Christie P (1997) Do CuSums have a role in routine communicable disease surveillance? Public Health 111: 255-258. (Pubitemid 27334266)
14. Hutwagner LC, Maloney EK, Bean NH, Slutsker L, Martin SM (1997) Using laboratory-based surveillance data for prevention: an algorithm for detecting Salmonella outbreaks. Emerg Infect Dis 3: 395-400. (Pubitemid 127431706)
15. Lau EH, Cowling BJ, Ho LM, Leung GM (2008) Optimizing use of multistream influenza sentinel surveillance data. Emerg Infect Dis 14: 1154-1157. (Pubitemid 351920456)
16. Petris G, Petrone S, Campagnoli P (2009) Dynamic linear models with R: Springer.
17. Petris G, Petrone S (2011) State space models in R. Journal of Statistical Software 41: 25.
18. Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 61-78. (Pubitemid 128494959)
19. Maraun D, Kurths J, Holschneider M (2007) Nonstationary Gaussian processes in wavelet domain: synthesis, estimation, and significance testing. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 75: 016707.
20. Tusell F (2011) Kalman Filtering in R. Journal of Statistical Software 39: 27.
21. Peiris G (2010) An R Package for Dynamic Linear Models. journal of Statistical Software 36: 16.
22. Kleinman KP, Abrams AM (2006) Assessing surveillance using sensitivity, specificity and timeliness. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 15: 10.
23. Li J, Fine JP (2010) Weighted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and its application to gene selection. Journal of Royal Statistical Society 59: 20.
24. (2013) R Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
25. Cheng XW, Tan Y, He ML (2013) Epidemiological Dynamics and Phylogeography of Influenza Virus in Southern China. The Journal of Infectious Disease 207: 14.
26. Tamerius J, Nelson MI, Zhou SZ, Viboud C, Miller MA, et al. (2011) Global influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical regions. Environ Health Perspect 119: 439-445.
27. Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller M, Alonso WJ (2010) The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996-2006. Proc Biol Sci 277: 1857-1866.
28. Brankston G, Gitterman L, Hirji Z, Lemieux C, Gardam M (2007) Transmission of influenza A in human beings. Lancet Infect Dis 7: 257-265. (Pubitemid 46414066)